The closer the weekend gets, the sharper the lines get and the harder it is to find value on NFL picks, but this week I’ve found a couple which are of interest.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
Opening line: Broncos -3 (-110) & O/U 38 -110
There’s a few things that jump out at me here. The Broncos are statistically better than their record so far. After losing to a pumped-up Oakland team in the opener, they’ve controlled their games in terms of possession and first downs. They had the ball for six minutes more against the Bears in Week 2 and 11 minutes more against the Packers, with 13 more first downs in those two games.
They have been moving the ball well, controlling tempo and creating turnovers on defense, but that hasn't translated into touchdowns as of yet. They’re running well, with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman forming a good partnership, and for his many flaws, Joe Flacco hasn’t been the entire issue for this team. He does need Courtland Sutton to fully make the leap and rookie TE Noah Fant not to fumble, but if a Freeman rushing TD wasn’t called back against the Packers last week they could have stolen a win there.
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The Broncos are overdue for a big sack game, too — an amazing trend with Vic Fangio as HC and Von Miller and Bradley Chubb as elite pass rushers. They’re yet to record a sack this season. That has to be more of an anomaly than the norm.
For this game specifically, Jalen Ramsey looks like he might be checked out waiting for a trade. That’s a huge boost for the Broncos, facing a rookie QB who admittedly has played well. But they don’t have a whole lot of targets, and with Chris Harris Jr. probably shutting down DJ Chark, there’s not much to throw to.
And finally, if you want a further statistical note, their home record in September is brilliant. From Week 3 of 2012, the Broncos have won 13 games straight at home in September up until the game they threw away against the Browns two weeks ago. The altitude with teams who aren’t up to full fitness gives them a decent advantage.
NFL pick: Broncos straight up at -170
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Opening line: Broncos -3 (-110) & O/U 38 -110
Two of the best defenses in the league face off in an NFC North clash which neither can afford to lose. With the Lions still undefeated at 2-0-1 and the Packers losing on Thursday night, it gives a chance for the winner of this game to join the Packers atop the division at 3-1.
I very much doubt this will be a high-scoring game, a view shared by the bookies with a line of around 38.5 on the NFL odds board, which is right around where I think it should be. It’s a divisional game, so both teams know each other well, and both are hitting opposition QBs regularly — Bears with 11 sacks, Vikings with 10 — this season. They’re 10th and 12th in yards allowed per game, respectively, and second and fifth in points allowed per game in the small sample we’ve had this season.
So what’s the differentiating factor here? For me, it’s the offenses. The Bears offense just doesn’t work at the moment and that’s pretty much entirely on Mitchell Trubisky.
MORE: Complete game-by-game betting guide for Week 4
Frankly, he’s just not very good at the moment. He can make a few plays, but is horribly off-target on so many easy throws and this is with a simplified playbook in place for him. Yes, he had three TDs on Monday, all to Taylor Gabriel, who is likely to miss this week with a concussion, but one was a busted coverage, one a fantastic catch, and the other from the 1-yard line.
Admittedly, Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly pulling up any trees on the other side of the ball, but he’s not being asked to. And for my NFL pick I think this is where the Vikings will win the game. They have the best rusher in the league at the moment in Dalvin Cook, and despite the fact that teams know the gameplan and know Cook is going to get the ball, they’ve been unable to stop them so far this season. He is well and truly passing the eye-test so far and has put up over 100 yards and one TD each game.
Even when Cook is rested, they’ve got the rookie Alexander Mattison who can step in and do a similar job to Cook. He also found the end zone last week on his limited carries.
The Bears' gameplan revolves around forcing turnovers on defense and giving their average QB good field position to work with. Not even Mitch is able to mess up too badly when they get the ball inside the opponents 30. If the Vikings avoid turnovers, they win this match.
NFL pick: Vikings +110 straight up
The parlay at the prices quoted pays out at +233.