This seems to sum up the difficulty of weekly NFL picks and predictions: Two winless teams opened as favorites in Week 4, according to consensus betting lines at Sportsbook Review. Apparently the throw-out-the-record-book cliche applies to almost every pro football game, not just rivalries.
The 2019 NFL season thus far has presented its share of surprises, including the rebounds of a handful of teams that failed to make the playoffs last year.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sportsbook Review
Four teams that missed the postseason in 2018 — the Bills (3-0), Lions (2-0-1), Packers (3-0) and 49ers (3-0) — are undefeated through the first three weeks of the 2019 season. This year marks the fourth time (2013, 2003 and 2002) at least four teams have started the season undefeated through their first three games after missing the postseason the previous year since 1990, when the current playoff format was put in place.
One of those teams is guaranteed to remain undefeated through Week 4, as San Francisco has a bye this week. As for the rest, here are our picks and predictions for Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season, all the way through the Monday night game in Pittsburgh.
NFL POWER RANKINGS:
Colts, Lions join 49ers, Bills in rise; Eagles, Seahawks dip
NFL picks, predictions for Week 4
- Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4 1/2, -106)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
Aaron Rodgers is the last quarterback a struggling Eagles defense wants to see, but Philadelphia might have even bigger problems on the other side of the ball in Green Bay. Unless the Eagles are able to manufacture a better rushing attack, or if Alshon Jeffrey returns to give them a needed boost in the passing game, they will have trouble scoring against the NFL's second-best defense in terms of points allowed. The short week could be a factor, too, with the road team dealing with more injuries than the home team.
Prediction: Packers 24, Eagles 20
- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7 1/2, +110)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is a perfect chance for Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield to turn around his so-far disappointing season; Cleveland needs to avoid falling another game behind Baltimore in the early AFC North race, and the Ravens' defense is not what it once was. The problem: Mayfield is the second-best QB in the game based on the numbers this season. There's little reason to believe Lamar Jackson can't torch the Browns' banged-up secondary with complimentary help from the ground attack.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Browns 20
- Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-5, -110)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Kyle Allen will start in place of Cam Newton again for the Panthers, and against a shaky Texans pass defense, he has a chance to put up more impressive numbers and further complicate the team's QB matters moving forward. In part because of those secondary struggles in Houston, and even though Carolina has its share of holes, the Panthers have the better defense. That will be the difference despite Deshaun Watson's best efforts.
Prediction: Panthers 26, Texans 24
- Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-2 1/2, -115)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The good news for the quarterbacks in this game is both pass defenses are terrible. Washington doesn't have to deal with Saquon Barkley, but if Daniel Jones plays anywhere near as well as he did against Tampa Bay, he'll be a problem for the Redskins. Jay Gruden desperately needs this win, but unless he gives his team a rookie QB spark of its own, he won't get it.
Prediction: Giants 17, Redskins 14
- Los Angeles Chargers (-16 1/2, -110) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This week the Chargers get the bingo-board free space that is the Dolphins, and they need it following a second straight loss. This is a rare case in which a West-Coast team traveling to the East Coast for an early kickoff isn't a factor.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Dolphins 10
- Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7, -105)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Thanks in part to injuries to T.Y. Hilton, Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker, this game isn't a lock for the Colts. Indianapolis will need another good performance from what's left of its defense to shut down Josh Jacobs, and Marlon Mack will need to be effective against what has been a decent Oakland run defense. We'll take overall talent in this one, though. The home team, which also has better coaching, is simply better.
Prediction: Colts 26, Raiders 17
- Kansas City Chiefs (-7, +120) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Kudos to the Lions for reaching Week 4 without a loss, and their tight wins against the Chargers and Eagles over the last couple weeks are notable upsets. They won't manage an upset this week, though. An indoor matchup against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs was going to be tough enough for Detroit with Darius Slay, but the star corner is dealing with a bad hamstring. Kerryon Johnson might have his moments against a vulnerable Kansas City run defense, but even if he does, it won't be enough.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Lions 21
- New England Patriots (-7 1/2, +110) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Second-year Bills quarterback Josh Allen was asked about this game moments after Buffalo beat Cincinnati to improve to 3-0, and he delivered a cliche response: "We’re going to try and stick to what we do." Kids say the darnedest things, don't they? If the Bills repeat what they've shown the Patriots on film, they have no chance of beating New England and taking control of the AFC East. Expect Buffalo's stingy defense to put up a fight, but unless Allen delivers a passing performance that rivals that of Tom Brady, Buffalo can't score enough points.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Bills 13
- Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4, -110)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This game is difficult to pick in part because these teams are equally confusing. They're also similarly desperate 1-2 teams operating in winnable divisions. The Titans have the better defense, especially with the Falcons having lost Keanu Neal to injury. They also have the better rushing attack, spearheaded by Derrick Henry, making Tennessee a logical pick. If this game comes down to the wire, though, we trust Matt Ryan over Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Plus, Dan Quinn needs this win.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Titans 24
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (- 10, +110)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Buccaneers need a chance to rebound from their disastrous loss to the Giants, and their schedule won't allow it. Tampa Bay's improved pass rush can't help it enough against Los Angeles' diverse attack, and the Rams have the rare defensive-back talent that's capable of containing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Prediction: Rams 28, Buccaneers 20
- Seattle Seahawks (-5, -110) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a tricky game for the Seahawks' iffy pass defense against a team that loves to spread the field. Of course, every game is tricky for the Cardinals and their iffy defense overall. Kyler Murray needs to match his talent with composure, and he can learn how to do just that by watching Russell Wilson gracefully pick apart Arizona both through the air and on the ground.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 17
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, +100)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
This is a toss-up, but only because the Bears aren't getting strong enough play from Mitchell Trubisky. The Vikings are running all over teams with Dalvin Cook, but they'll see one of the NFL's best defenses in Chicago. As shaky as Trubisky has been, it's not like Cousins has been much better.
Prediction: Bears 23, Vikings 20
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3, -120)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos are one of two winless teams (Steelers) that opened as favorites in Week 4, which means the football world is not yet sold on Gardner Minshew no matter how entertaining the Jaguars' relief quarterback may be. Based on QB rating, though, Minshew has been better than Joe Flacco, who is up against a Jacksonville defense that should be better than Denver's dwindling unit.
Prediction: Jaguars 17, Broncos 16
- Dallas Cowboys (-2 1/2, -120) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Saints salvaged this game's status as the matchup of the week when they upset the Seahawks without Drew Brees. The Cowboys, though, will make life much tougher on Teddy Bridgewater and/or Taysom Hill, and their linebackers can contain Alvin Kamara to an extent. The other star running back in this game, Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott, is up against a struggling rush defense. He'll eat up enough yards on the ground to quiet the Superdome crowd, allowing Dak Prescott to stay out of too many third-and-long situations.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Saints 17
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, -110)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
ESPN might have been happy to land this game when the schedule was released in the spring, but the network is now stuck with two winless and increasingly lifeless teams in Week 4. The good news in terms of entertainment value for this "Monday Night Football" matchup is the desperation factor. Plus, the Steelers and Bengals love to hate each other no matter what kind of stakes are attached. Give us the team with better coaching and home-field advantage.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Bengals 16