Let's hope our NFL game picks and predictions against the spread in Week 9 are a lot less spookier than the results of Week 8. Right before the halfway point of the 2020 season, there were a slew of shocking upsets, with blowouts and big comebacks alike by underdogs.
But as the league tends to be a week-to-week, opponent-by-opponent proposition in most cases, it's time to shake off what just happened and focus solely on the upcoming matchups. Based on the numbers set in Las Vegas, there are more challenges tied to some tough contests to call.
Here's diving into our latest round of pigskin prognostications with the fearless forecast for the next 14 games on the schedule:
MORE: Week 9 NFL power rankings | Week 9 picks straight up
NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
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NFC Game of the Week: Saints at Buccaneers (-4.5, 54.5 o/u)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints took advantage of Tom Brady learning his new team in Week 1, with a pick six against him that made the ultimate difference. While New Orleans has the same solid identity from that game, Tampa Bay has found a near-elite level of defense with Brady passing like he's in his prime again. Both teams should be fully loaded with wide receivers for Drew Brees and Brady, but this comes to down which team can better back up a strong run defense with a more impactful pass rush. Look for the Bucs to rattle Brees. Brady has the bigger arm and more dynamic downfield options to settle the score.
Pick: Buccaneers win 31-23 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Midweek: Packers (-2.5, 51 o/u) at 49ers
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video
The Packers have been owned by the 49ers of late. San Francisco beat Green Bay twice on the way to Super Bowl 54, 37-8 in the regular season and 37-20 in the playoffs. But now there are many questions about the 49ers' offense, starting with the health and effectiveness of Jimmy Garoppolo. Deebo Samuel isn't playing and Green Bay killer George Kittle may not go on a short week. The Packers might be without running back Aaron Jones another week, but they should feel confident about Aaron Rodgers passing well on San Francisco's defense with a lesser pass rush and thinner secondary. The Packers take advantage of the 49ers shuffling because of injuries, rebounding from a home loss on a long short-week road trip.
Pick: Packers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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AFC Game of the Week: Ravens (-3, 45 o/u) at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens have lost control of the AFC North to the Steelers. Lamar Jackson is making many mistakes and their passing game has been limited while their running game can still dominate. The Colts' defense comes in playing well, making big plays all over the field. Philip Rivers has played better of late, too. This screams like an ugly battle of attrition where yards are tough to come by with two stout all-around defenses on the field. While Jackson will run out of trouble at key points, Rivers cannot.
Pick: Ravens win 23-17 and cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Seahawks (-2.5, 54.5 o/u) over Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks ripped through the 49ers' defense with a little help from the running game for Russell Wilson. They should have their backfield healthier to rack up big rushing yards on Buffalo and open things up for Wilson to exploit all the Bills' defensive backs not named Tre'Davious White. Josh Allen continues to fade hard out of any kind of fringe MVP talk, just in time for Wilson to all but lock up the award going into the second half. The Seahawks' run defense is good and the pass rush is waking up a little, too. Pete Carroll gets another strong East Coast road trip out of his team.
Pick: Seahawks win 34-27 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Bears over Titans (-6, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears can struggle against the run, so Derrick Henry will keep the Titans in the game. But the concern is that Ryan Tannehill has little margin for error in the passing game because Tennessee's defense isn't doing anything much to stop other teams. If the Bears can contain Henry, they will get in Tannehill's face and get him to pass into more mistakes. On other side, Nick Foles should be comfortable throwing all over the field and also get consistent backfield support from David Montgomery. Chicago goes back to helping its wild-card chances in the NFC while the Titans fall back in the AFC race for a third straight week.
Pick: Bears win 20-17.
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Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5, 43 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Giants will be coming off a short week, having played the tough Buccaneers on Monday night . WFT got a bye in Week 8 to get healthier and is feeling better about its offense and defense because of Kyle Allen and Chase Young. The hosts rallied to nearly beat the Giants in the first meeting on the road. They finish the job at home as Allen gets a little more comfortable than Daniel Jones.
Pick: Washington wins 23-20 but fails to cover the spread.
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Lions at Vikings (-3.5, 53.5 o/u)
The Lions got destroyed by the Colts' running backs while rushing and receiving. Dalvin Cook just ripped through the Packers in both capacities, so nothing has to give here. The Lions will be shorter on firepower without Matthew Staford (COVID-19) and Kenny Golladay (hip), while Cook's presence will open things up for good downfield passing for Kirk Cousins to both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Mike Zimmer keeps cooling his hot seat while Matt Patrick goes back on the burner.
Pick: Vikings win 31-27 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Chiefs (-12, 52 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Christian McCaffrey will be back to help a slumping Panthers offense with Teddy Bridgewater. But the Chiefs' blitzing scheme will not help Bridgewater, and neither will their strong inside-outside pass rush. The Panthers also cannot stop the running of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell and they do not match up well against the speed of the Chiefs' wide receivers. Patrick Mahomes has another huge winning day at home.
Pick: Chiefs win 38-20 and cover the spread.
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Texans (-6.5, 51.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans and Jaguars are both coming off byes. But while Houston still will have Deshaun Watson starting at quarterback, there's a good chance that rookie Jake Luton starts for Jacksonville with Gardner Minshew hurting. The Jaguars will again heavily on undrafted rookie James Robinson's running back, but Luton is a big wild card in getting the ball to their wide receivers to play off a strong rushing attack. The Texans take advantage of the big QB edge to gain some more respectability under interim coach Romeo Crennel.
Pick: Texans win 31-21 and cover the spread.
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Broncos at Falcons (-4, 50 o/u)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Drew Lock had the kind of breakout game he needed as a leader and passer in the amazing comeback against the Chargers. The Falcons, unlike the Chargers, have started to figure out how to close tight games with more aggressive, active and focused defense. Matt Ryan should get Calvin Ridley back and he and Julio Jones cannot be covered by the Broncos' cornerbacks. The Falcons bring some good pressure packages to bring heat on Lock, while Ryan settles in and picks apart a bad secondary behind a depleted pass rush.
Pick: Falcons win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Raiders at Chargers (-1.5, 54 o/u)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Raiders love being a grinding team under Jon Gruden. They don't care about style points, just about scoring enough points. This matchup screams for them to keep Josh Jacobs rolling on the ground and deploy Darren Waller often to exploit the Chargers' biggest coverage weakness. That's good news to put Derek Carr in business and in position to outduel Justin Herbert.
Pick: Raiders win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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Steelers (-14, 42 o/u) at Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers will try to improve to 8-0 and get halfway home to an improbable undefeated season. The Cowboys will just be trying to cover a spread this season after going 0-8 ATS in the first half. The line was in question early because of uncertainty about quarterback, but it's trending toward Dallas starting Cooper Rush for Andy Dalton (COVID-19) ahead of rookie Ben DiNucci. But we've also seen young QBs vs. the Steelers' defense many times before in prime stops, and it doesn't play out well. The Steelers will give up some big plays to the Cowboys' wide receivers, but their run defense and pass rush will limit the damage after they do whatever they want with a run-leaning offensive approach to boost Ben Roethlisberger.
Pick: Steelers win 34-17.
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Dolphins at Cardinals (-4.5, 48 o/u)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray last met in the 2018 Orange Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal game. Murray played well, passing and running for big numbers on Alabama's defense. Tagovailoa outdueled him, however, with plenty of help from his NFL-bound backfield. Tagovailoa won his his starting debut for the Dolphins, but didn't do much. Murray has done plenty with his arm and legs as a second-year first-overall pick to put the Cards in NFC playoff contention. Miami's defense is playing well, but Murray is a much different challenge than the Rams' Jared Goff, especially on the road against an offense coming of a bye. Arizona will test Tagovailoa with tough pressure packages, ultimately coming up with a big late sack to seal the game.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Patriots (-7, 41 o/u) at Jets
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Patriots don't get the double-digit treatment against the Jets, as they have now lost four consecutive games since a 2-1 start. The Jets haven't won anything this season and even when their efforts look better, they are not competitive. The Patriots are still playing hard for Bill Belichick and Cam Newton finally gets a defensive break here. New England is much more talented and disciplined defensively. It will simply run as much as it can with Newton and the running backs to shorten this game and end a skid in methodical, uninteresting fashion.
Pick: Patriots win 23-10 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 8 straight up: 7-6
Week 8 against the spread: 7-5
Season straight up: 77-40
Season against the spread: 74-43
