Week 2 was a week of chalk, following up a wild and unpredictable Week 1. Between the Bears and the Vikings, we picked the wrong NFC North team to lose in two close games, but otherwise, the picks straight up were solid, and the predictions against the spread were smashing.
Now that we have some good early season results, we'll track them with our "Stats of the Week" below again. But what we did last week has little meaning or importance in trying to get things right this week.
Week 3 definitely doesn't lack for marquee games with quarterbacks serving as the headliners. Those levels of elite passing duels also create tougher matchups to call.
Even though we're doing well ATS, keep in mind these picks are "for entertainment purposes only." The point spreads come courtesy of Sports Insider:
MORE: Get the latest NFL Week 3 odds & betting advice from Sports Insider
NFL picks against the spread for Week 3
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Game of the Week: Chiefs at Ravens (-3.5, 53.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chiefs have had more issues with run defense and the Ravens will try to exploit that with Lamar Jackson and their three talented backs, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Baltimore will try to win with ball control, but Kansas City is capable of that, too, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Both teams will try to hit on big pass plays and exploit the middle of the field. Jackson will do his best with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, but Patrick Mahomes will have more success doing so with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Mahomes will pick his good spots to run, too, to add to outplaying Jackson on the latter's home turf in prime time.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-27.
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Game of Midweek: Dolphins at Jaguars (-2.5, 47.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Dolphins played a lot better offensively in Week 2 but are still 0-2 with Ryan Fitzpatrick while first-round rookie Tua Tagovailoa waits his turn. For the Jaguars, Gardner Minshew is justifying the decision not to draft or add a veteran QB to replace him. James Robinson is also showing why Leonard Fournette was expendable. The Jaguars will be more effective running and passing everywhere and Fitzpatrick will make more mistakes on the road than Minshew does at home.
Pick: Jaguars win 24-20 and cover the spread. Result: Dolphins won 31-13
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Lock of the Week: Steelers (-3.5, 45 o/u) over Texans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers are doing everything they want offensively with Ben Roethlsiberger and James Conner back healthy together. The Texans are stopping nothing defensively, having being burned through ground and air by the the Chiefs and Ravens. T.J. Watt is playing for a Pittsburgh pass rush in front of a top secondary. J.J. Watt is on an island trying to make up for Houston's big problems. Big advantage Big Ben over Deshaun Watson.
Pick: Steelers win 33-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Vikings over Titans (-2.5, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Vikings can't be this bad, can they? The Titans can't be this good, can they? Minnesota's defense is in a rough patch, struggling mightily against run and pass over the first two weeks. The key here at home for the Vikings will be a positive game script where they can control the game with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison on the ground and Kirk Cousins is throwing efficiently off play-action. There's nothing scary about Tennessee's overrated defense, either. The streaky Cousins is due to be hot again, while Ryan Tannehill cools off a little on the road as the Vikings rise from desperation mode.
Pick: Vikings win 24-20.
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Bengals at Eagles (-6.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals and Eagles each are having major offensive line issues for different respective reasons, lacking talent and lacking health. They have two gamers at quarterback in Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz. Both teams are trying to help their QBs with the running game and a lot of throws to the middle of the field. Both teams' linebackers and safeties are vulnerable. The Bengals will have trouble with the two-tight end sets and Miles Sanders' versatile skill set. The Eagles will have trouble inside and Joe Mixon's all-purpose game. The Eagles are the better overall team and will be have desperation at home to survive, but it won't be pretty or comfortable.
Pick: Eagles win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
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49ers (-3.5, 41 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers won't have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman for this game. The Giants, however, have lost Saquon Barkley for the season and likely Sterling Shepard for a while. Nick Mullens vs. Daniel Jones doesn't really sound like a shootout then, does it? Look for the 49ers to survive offensively, assuming George Kittle comes back and Jerick McKinnon keeps on bursting. The Giants will be very limited in moving the ball. The 49ers ripped through the Jets in this same stadium last week and will demand better turf. They win another one at MetLife going away.
Pick: 49ers win 24-13 and cover the spread.
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Raiders at Patriots (-6.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Cam Newton is in a groove running and passing and there's no indication to bet against him vs. Las Vegas in his second home game for the Patriots. The Raiders offer little resistance with their front and back end. Derek Carr will be thwarted by a top secondary and a good pass rush by committee as you can bet Bill Belichick will focus on taking Josh Jacobs and the run-heavy game plan away from Jon Gruden.
Pick: Patriots win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Washington Football Team at Browns (-7, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Browns found their formula of running big time with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, with the occasional big play from Baker Mayfield. They will want to wear down Washington with the run so they can keep Chase Young and the Football Team's pass rush at bay vs. Mayfield. Dwayne Haskins is playing better, but there's not much reliable around him in a hostile road environment, back near his college stomping grounds at Ohio State.
Pick: Browns win 34-20 and cover the spread.
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Rams at Bills (-2.5, 47.5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams are unfazed by cross-country travel under Sean McVay and will try to build on winning at Philadelphia last week. But this is a much sturdier opponent, with a red-hot Josh Allen and a diverse offense. Jalen Ramsey can't cover both Stefon Diggs and John Brown, when Aaron Donald gets after Allen, he can use his legs on scrambles and designed runs to get out of trouble. Jared Goff will keep trying to work the middle, but he'll face more consistent pocket pressure than Allen.
Pick: Bills win 23-20 and cover the spread.
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Bears at Falcons (-3.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons ran into the blowout buzzsaw of Russell Wilson and comeback cruise of Dak Prescott. They should welcome getting a QB break from Mitchell Trubisky. Don't blame Matt Ryan for chucking to keep Atlanta in games, and with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst, Chicago will be often lost in coverage. With not as many worries for their maligned pass defense, the Falcons finally get in the win column for 2020, saving Dan Quinn for now.
Pick: Falcons win 30-24 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Chargers (-7, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert? The Chargers should be able to get the job done with either veteran or rookie QB with a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley against a putrid visiting run defense. Defensively, the Chargers get a huge break not worrying about Christian McCaffrey and they match up well against the recievers of Teddy Bridgewater, who will see plenty of Joey Bosa in his face.
Pick: Chargers win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Jets at Colts (-10, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The numbers keep getting bigger against the Jets, but it's hard to bite on the Colts, even at home. Their grinding run-heavy game plan will slow down the game and Philip Rivers won't play clean enough for them to pull away that much as Adam Gase coaches his offense like his job depends on it. The Jets piecemeal enough offense through their injuries to get the back-door cover in garbage time.
Pick: Colts win 24-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Cowboys at Seahawks (-4.5, 55 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Prescott is playing lights out, but Wilson is performing in his own category with his precise downfield passing and strong running when needed. They are simliar, gritty, likable, durable quarterbacks, only at different stages of their careers, but making comparable money for 2020. Both defenses have had issues despite talent across the board. The Cowboys look like they have a few more holes around their linebackers than the Seahawks do. Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott keep the Seahawks from pulling away as the hosts don't pull out another late cover.
Pick: Seahawks win 35-31 but fail to cover the spread.
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Buccaneers (-6, 43.5 o/u) at Broncos
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Tom Brady is still breaking himself into the Buccaneers' passing attack but now has big help in the power running game with Leonard Fournette. The Bucs' defense also is feeling it again with its dominance against the run and supplementary pass rush through heavy blitzing. Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense and offense are both crumbling because of injuries, minus Drew Lock and Von Miller. Brady has had some good experience and success against the Broncos in his Patriots' past and channels that here.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-17 and cover the spread
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Lions at Cardinals (-6, 54.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Matthew Stafford is doing his best to keep the Lions' offense together through injuries and personnel shakeups, but unfortunately the bigger problem is coach Matt Patricia's defense. Patricia can feel the heat of a must-produce season already. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are sitting pretty with Kyler Murray teamed up with DeAndre Hopkins under Kliff Kingsbury. Detroit will not stop Arizona while Stafford is put in adverse situations in this desert trap. Still, a Kenny Golladay potential return would make this interesting out of desperation.
Pick: Cardinals win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Packers at Saints (-3.5, 51.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees give us another treat after dominating NFC QB for so long. But this game will more about Aaron Jones vs. Alvin Kamara, the backfield superstars. Jones runs into a much tougher run defense. Kamara can scoot past and around the Packers' front seven a little bit better at home. The Packers and Saints may be hampered a little in the passing game with top wideouts hurting (Davante Adams, Michael Thomas), but the hosts are better positioned to win a grinding ball-control game in prime time at home.
Pick: Saints win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 2 straight up: 13-3
Week 2 against the spread: 11-5
Season straight up: 21-11
Season against the spread: 22-10
