How do you make picks in Week 18 of the NFL season?
In some ways, it's almost tougher than Week 1. Some teams have everything to play for, ranging from home-field advantage to a divisional title to a wild-card spot. Others have the option of resting starters. It makes for a messy week of picks, especially when those decisions can be made in real time based on other results.
It makes Week 18 the most-exciting week, but also the toughest to pick. It starts on Saturday with Kansas City looking to wrap up home-field advantage in the AFC at Las Vegas. The AFC South also will be decided between Tennessee and Jacksonville. Sunday has some great questions, too.
Will Buffalo knock New England out of the playoffs and give either Miami or Pittsburgh a chance to sneak in? Will the Green Bay-Detroit game be for a playoff on both sides? Only if Seattle loses to the Rams. There is a lot to sort out.
A look at our track record this season:
Record: 162-91-2, .639
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 18 (lines courtesy of BetMGM):
POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs, 49ers overtake Eagles, Bills as new 1-2; Packers, Steelers, Patriots cling to life for Week 18
NFL picks, predictions for Week 18
- Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ESPN
The Chiefs can earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the third time in five years, and the line has hit double digits in a few spots. The Raiders nearly played spoiler against the 49ers with Jarrett Stidham under center. Las Vegas lost 30-29 in the first meeting, and they are 4-2 ATS as an underdog. Patrick Mahomes II, however, isn't letting an upset happen here.
Pick: Chiefs 32, Raiders 24
- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN
The Jaguars beat the Titans 36-22 in Week 13, which started a four-game winning streak. The winner takes the AFC South here, and Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel has to choose between quarterbacks Joshua Dobbs and Malik Willis. Dobbs might be the better bet here, and he will have to be on point against a Jacksonville run defense that has allowed an average of 75 rushing yards. Will Derrick Henry (hip) play?
Pick: Jaguars 26, Titans 21
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Texans have the No. 1 pick for now, but that Week 1 tie with the Colts could complicate that if Houston wins here. Indianapolis' nightmare season ends here, but interim coach Jeff Saturday at least has a chance to go out with a victory. The Colts win ugly at home.
Pick: Colts 19, Texans 18
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)
The Saints have won the last three meetings against the Panthers in this NFC South rivalry, and despite the ups-and-down this season New Orleans still has a 4-3 home record. Carolina interim coach Steve Wilks has made a great case to take the full-time job, and a win here could seal it. The only problem is that 1-6 record on the road. Will Wilks overcome that?
Pick: Panthers 28, Saints 25
- Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Chicago Bears
Why is this line so low? The Vikings are out of the mix for the No. 1 seed, meaning Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are among the key players that could rest here. They could still beat a Bears team that has lost nine straight games. This is one to stay away from, but if Cousins and Co. start, then look for Minnesota to try to get that blowout loss to Green Bay out of the memory bank.
Pick: Vikings 29, Bears 24
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-8)
This is another one where the starters might sit. Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to the NFC South title. Brady wants to play in Week 18, but Todd Bowles can opt to sit a veteran team ahead of a playoff run. The Falcons are 5-3 S/U this season, but that spread still looks high considering four of those wins were by three points or less. Maybe Brady plays a half?
Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 20
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)
Will Jalen Hurts play? Will the Giants rest starters knowing they are locked into a No. 6 seed? That's what the line is pointing toward. Philadelphia won the first matchup 48-22. As much as Hurts need to return, the defense has allowed 30 points per game the last two weeks. Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS when favored by more than 10 points, and it's still a division game. The Eagles still wrap up the No. 1 seed.
Pick: Eagles 31, Giants 20
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
Mike Tomlin can still sneak the Steelers into the playoffs, just like last year. Kenny Pickett saved the season against Baltimore in Week 17. The Browns have a chance to play spoiler with Deshaun Watson for the second straight week, however, and they can sweep the season series with Pittsburgh for the first time since 1988. Even if the Steelers can't get in the playoffs, this game is going to be heated.
Pick: Browns 23, Steelers 20
- Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at Washington Commanders
The Commanders were knocked out of the playoff race, and they catch a Cowboys' team that still has a chance at home-field advantage. Dallas has won the last three meetings Dak Prescott has completed more than 70% of his passes each of the last three weeks, but he has to clean up the interceptions. Speaking of picks, Carson Wentz must be better than last week's three-interception performance for Washington to pull an upset.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Commanders 20
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Patriots still have a playoff shot, but they need a win against Buffalo to seal that final spot in the AFC. After years of being haunted by Tom Brady, the Bills have taken control of this AFC North rivalry by winning five of the last six meetings. Will they knock the Belichick-led Pats out of the playoff here?
Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 22
- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
The Dolphins have a shot at the AFC Wild Card, but Tua Tagovailoa remains out so it's on Teddy Bridgewater to break a five-game losing streak. The Jets also are on a five-game losing streak, and they've lost their last four road games. Miami takes that last playoff spot, but just barely.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Jets 27
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos' miserable season ends, and the Chargers have the option of resting their starters here with little room for movement in the AFC playoff hunt. This is another stay-away game as a result. Denver played Kansas City tight. Will they show up here?
Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 19
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
The 49ers have won nine straight games, and Brock Purdy hasn't lost a start yet. San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in that stretch. The 49ers might pull back if the Eagles win, but the Cardinals will not slow them down. San Francisco makes it 10 in a row ahead of what should be a deep run in the NFC playoffs. The Cardinals are 3-3 ATS through a six-game losing streak.
Pick: 49ers 35, Cardinals 24
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
This is a precarious position for the Seahawks. Seattle needs to win first and hope the Lions pull off the upset on the road against the Packers. Seattle is 4-4 S/U at home this season, and Baker Mayfield's two road starts have not gone well. He averages 121.5 passing yards in those two starts.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Rams 19
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
The Packers had a five-game losing streak earlier this season, and that included a loss at Detroit. The Lions are 3-4 S/U on the road, and this would be the ultimate arrival for second-year coach Dan Campbell. The Packers, however, are clicking at the right time and running the football with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. How many times have we seen Aaron Rodgers do this at Lambeau Field – where despite those struggles the Packers are 5-2 S/U this season and 29-6 S/U under Matt LaFleur since 2019.
Pick: Packers 31, Lions 26
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Will Lamar Jackson return? How much rust will he show if that is the case? Baltimore won the first meeting 19-17, but the Bengals have been arguably the best team in the AFC through the second half of the season. The Ravens' defense has allowed just 12.1 points per game in five games without Jackson. How does that translate against the Bengals?
Pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 20
