When making our Week 14 NFL game picks against the spread, we have to keep mind how crazy last week was. There were plenty of solid upsets, while some more mild favorites pulled away with no problems.
The league is getting harder to predict as teams are bunching up late in the 2019 season, either near the top or toward the bottom. The best thing to do is try to figure out which teams to trust and have strong reasons for making one particular pigskin prognostication over the other.
Without further ado, here's our latest fearless forecast for upcoming NFL results. All odds are courtesy of SportsInsider.com.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends from Sports Insider
NFL Week 14 picks, predictions against the spread
- Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers have had their most trouble this season against mobile quarterbacks. The Saints' pass protection is having some injury issues in front of Drew Brees. Both teams will try to get creative with their running games in tough matchups. Both Kyle Shanahan and Sean Payton will mix up personnel with misdirection and unconventional offensive play calls. This should have the feel of a familiar grinding defensive struggle for San Francisco, and although New Orleans has had some success in those type of games, the visitors will find a little more running and passing punch.
Pick: 49ers win 24-17.
- Game of the Midweek: Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox/NFL Network/Amazon Prime Video
The Cowboys and Bears each played on Thanksgiving last week with different results, as the former was upset at home and the latter rallied to win on the road. Chicago and Dallas' defenses aren't as daunting as expected, so it comes down to which quarterback you can trust to make some big plays off the better success in the running game. That's easily Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The desperate Cowboys will dig deep for a much-needed road win against an opponent with the same (6-6) record.
Pick: Cowboys win 23-20 and cover the spread.
- Upset of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (+2) over Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Rams got well with their fine all-around offensive performance against the Cardinals. Jared Goff should carry that confidence back home, where he usually plays his best. The Seahawks are coming off a short week and typically have not done as well in Los Angeles in this rivalry during the Sean McVay era. This will become another classic game between division rivals in prime time, with Goff setting up Greg Zuerlein for the game-winning field goal that comes to fruition this time.
Pick: Rams win 30-27.
- Lock of the Week: Houston Texans (-7 1/2) over Denver Broncos
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans are much better at home because Deshaun Watson loves running around the field and being able to throw deep with no elemental restrictions, especially late in the season. They will have strong momentum after the back-to-back home wins over the Colts and Patriots and will make sure there's no letdown here. Drew Lock is making his first road start as a rookie, and although wide receiver Courtland Sutton can help him, Watson can rely on more firepower against a Broncos defense suddenly giving up chunk runs and big pass plays.
Pick: Texans win 27-10 and cover the spread.
- Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens will find themselves in another defensive grind of a game after surviving the 49ers at home last week. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman returns to Buffalo armed with Lamar Jackson's running and passing to throw off the Bills up front and set them up for big plays into the second level and deep secondary. Baltimore can take John Brown and Cole Beasley away from Josh Allen, who won't have the same success as Jackson will taking off and rushing. Both second-year first-round QBs are using their arm and legs well, but the Ravens will find more holes in the Bills' defense than the Bills will in theirs.
Pick: Ravens win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
- Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Redskins will do exactly what they did against the Panthers on the road: Run, run and run some more with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. The Packers are most vulnerable to a steady dose of power running, equipped better to rush the passer and cover Dwayne Haskins' limited receiving corps. But the Redskins' pass rush will be slowed down against the Rodgers, and they can't cover his two best wide receivers, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. The Packers will need to turn the tables themselves and run well with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to put away their return to Lambeau in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Packers win 27-14 but fail to cover the spread.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals found some stability again with Andy Dalton back at QB. They look like a legitimate offense again with Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon as two challenging skill players for a reeling Browns defense. The Browns, however, after not running well against the Steelers, will get well here with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as they try to keep Baker Mayfield from throwing at high volume with his banged up hand. The Battle of Ohio will go to Cleveland, but Cincinnati will keep playing with more pride after its first win.
Pick: Browns win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers have gone into another free-fall in the second half of the season, which probably doesn't bode well for Ron Rivera, who's now feeling more defensive-minded coaching heat than Dan Quinn. We'll see if Julio Jones can return, but the Panthers' pass rush and secondary can be tricky vs. Matt Ryan, and their defense gets a break from the Falcons' rushing ineptitude. Kyle Allen's up-and-down season will continue, as Atlanta has few answers for the speed of Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel on the fast track indoors.
Pick: Panthers win 27-20.
- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jets are a different team at home than they are away. The Dolphins are up to three wins, which includes their win over the Jets in the previous meeting. Red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick will go to work in another revenge game against a bad pass defense. Sam Darnold, coming off a terrible game against the lowly Bengals, will rebound against a non-existent pass rush and a secondary with no one left to cover his myriad of weapons. The Dolphins will do their best to counter with similar weapons led by DeVante Parker, but the Jets will save some face by a field goal.
Pick: Jets win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
David Blough likely will be the Lions' starter again with Matthew Stafford hurting and Jeff Driskel on IR. In a tough road test, he will be confident slinging the ball downfield to his wide receivers, but he will get less help from his running game and defense than he did on Thanksgiving at Ford Field. The Vikings should be able to do whatever they want offensively with Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook.
Pick: Vikings win 34-17 and cover the spread.
- Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts have become a shell of the offense they expected to be because of injuries, and it's hurting the production and efficiency of Jacoby Brissett. They also have let special teams cost them plenty this season. The Bucs haven't been pretty with their giveaways and bad pass defense, but Bruce Arians has them playing inspired, and there's not much daunting about Indianapolis' defense. Brissett will be forced to throw often, and the Colts are not built to win high-scoring games.
Pick: Buccaneers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-2 1/2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Chargers keep struggling to find a spark with Philip Rivers making enough key mistakes while their strong defense tends to have bad lapses. The Jaguars were going through the motions with Nick Foles, so it makes sense for them to go back to Gardner Minshew at QB. The magic and mania goes shazam against the Bolts, who can make it tough on the mustachioed rookie with their pass rush and coverage. The Chargers will do their best to run to a win, but Minshew will not waste time with his second chance to make a good second impression, in the style that only he can deliver.
Pick: Jaguars win 20-17.
- Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots' offense came to life in the second half against the Texans. That development positions them to play ball control and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible. Tom Brady's ability to get the ball out quickly to intermediate routes will neutralize Kansas City's pass rush and give its secondary little chance to win battles downfield. Mahomes will try to overcome the Patriots' sound coverage, but Brady, after finding his groove in Houston, will save his best GOAT stylings for last.
Pick: Patriots win 31-27 and cover the spread.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-1 1/2) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers have built their team so it can travel well, based on strong power running, calculated downfield passing and lights-out, often-swarming defense. The Cardinals can't slow either element of their adjusted offense for Devlin Hodges, while Kyler Murray, roughed up by the Rams at home, will be stuck in one-dimensional mode against a good pass rush backed up by a deep secondary.
Pick: Steelers win 23-13 and cover the spread.
- Tennessee Titans (-2 1/2) at Oakland Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are clicking offensively with Ryan Tannehill's aggressive passing coming out of the consistent threat of Derrick Henry's power running. They are involving so many receivers to dictate matchups all over the field. Going from Nashville to the Black Hole is a tough road trip, but there's nothing in Oakland's pass defense or somewhat fading run defense that can keep Tennessee from executing its best plan. Meanwhile, the Titans can contain Josh Jacobs on the ground and tee off on an ice-cold Derek Carr.
Pick: Titans win 31-20 and cover the spread.
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8 1/2)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Giants have lost eight consecutive games and have been eliminated from the playoff hunt. The Eagles have dropped three in a row, still needing to chase the Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. Eli Manning will come out firing against the Eagles' struggling secondary, but the Giants' pass defense will struggle even more against Carson Wentz. Look for the Eagles to overcorrect and commit more to the run to get their defense back on track and earn a much-needed victory.
Pick: Eagles win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Week 13 record straight up: 9-7
Week 13 record against the spread: 10-6
Season record straight up: 127-64
Season record against the spread: 105-80
Upsets of the Week: 6-7
Locks of the Week: 7-6
