Week 13 of the NFL schedule features six games between teams with winning records, including an AFC championship rematch, a possible Super Bowl preview and a NFC East rivalry with an unexpected spotlight.
The Chiefs meet the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium at 4:25 p.m. in what should be the best game of the weekend. Cincinnati beat Kansas City in the regular season and playoffs last year, and Patrick Mahomes II and Joe Burrow should put on an offensive show.
The Dolphins and 49ers also play in the afternoon in a matchup of Super Bowl sleepers. That should be an exciting offensive chess match 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and former San Francisco offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.
The most impactful game in the early window might be a NFC East showdown between the Giants and Commanders. Both remain in the wild-card hunt in their loaded division. The other games between winning teams are Bills-Patriots, Titans-Eagles and Jets-Vikings.
That is a fun weekend with several difficult picks as a result. A look at our track record this season:
Record: 109-70-1
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 13 (lines courtesy of BetMGM):
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Bengals have Chiefs, Bills in sights; Rams, Packers, Broncos near rock bottom
NFL picks, predictions for Week 13
- Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at New England Patriots
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Bills had extra time off after the Thanksgiving thriller with the Lions. Buffalo is 5-5-1 ATS. The Patriots can stop the run – but Josh Allen presents a different challenge with his mobility. New England also has averaged just 71.3 rushing yards per game in its last three games. That will not work against the Bills. Buffalo wins for the third straight year at Gillette Stadium.
Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
Result: Bills 24, Patriots 10
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Falcons have lost three of four games, and the offense has averaged just 18 points per game in that stretch. Pittsburgh is coming off a short week, but the offense has been a little better. This is a road game the Steelers can win with their defense. Get the value now.
Pick: Steelers 25, Falcons 18
- Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens lost in stunning fashion to the Jaguars in Week 12, but they have bounced back with victories after each of their previous three losses. Lamar Jackson should be able to pick his spots against Denver. The Broncos have averaged just 12 points per game in their last three losses, and the defense has forced just two turnovers in that stretch.
Pick: Ravens 26, Broncos 13
- Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Who are the quarterbacks in this game? Justin Fields (shoulder) and Aaron Rodgers (ribs) are hurting. Will this be Nathan Peterman vs. Jordan Love instead? Either way, neither one of these teams can stop the run. Chicago has allowed 153.5 rushing yards the last two weeks. The Packers have been worse at 225.5 the last two weeks. It’s an ugly game and one the Bears could steal, but we’ll stick with the Packers in a close one.
Pick: Packers 28, Bears 26
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Detroit Lions
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
There is hope in both places for a change. Jacksonville is 2-5 in games decided by seven points or less, but they have won the last two. Con? The Jaguars are 1-4 S/U on the road. Detroit also is 2-5 in games decided by seven points or less. Somebody has to win, right? We’re going to stick with the home team.
Pick: Lions 29, Jaguars 28
- Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Deshaun Watson returns from an 11-game suspension, and his former team is the opponent. How much of a distraction will that be for Cleveland, which is coming off an impressive overtime victory against Tampa Bay? The Texans have averaged 28.5 rushing yards the last two games. Can they stick with the run long enough to have a chance to ruin Watson’s debut?
Pick: Browns 30, Texans 20
- New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Jets got back on track with Mike White at quarterback, and they are 5-4 ATS as an underdog. The Vikings also recalibrated with a Thanksgiving victory against New England. The matchup between Justin Jefferson and Sauce Gardner is worth the price of admission, but Minnesota has other options at home.
Pick: Vikings 24, Jets 20
- Washington Commanders (-1.5) at New York Giants
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
This is a surprising pivotal game in the NFC Wild card race. New York has lost three of four games, and they failed to reach 100 yards rushing in each of those losses. Washington is 5-1 with Tyler Heinicke at starting quarterback, and the defense has been stout through a three-game win streak. Washington keeps it moving in the right direction.
Pick: Commanders 23, Giants 20
- Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
It’s the A.J. Brown game. The Eagles’ star receiver was acquired in a trade with Tennessee, and he has been a difference-maker for Jalen Hurts. Brown has put up modest numbers through the last four weeks (14 catches, 162 yards, 2 TDs). He clears 100 yards in this one. Tennessee keeps it close with a bounce-back game for Derrick Henry, but the Eagles stay hot at home.
Pick: Eagles 27, Titans 23
- Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
This line has ticked up a half-point. Seattle let one slip away against the Raiders in Week 12, but there is a bounce-back opportunity against the Rams. Injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have decimated the offense. Bryce Perkins should get another shot, but the Seahawks will clean up their mistakes around Geno Smith. Los Angeles is a league-worst 2-7-2 ATS this season.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Rams 17
- Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
How fun will this game be? McDaniel brings the high-powered Miami offense on the road against his former coach Shanahan, and both teams are hot. Miami is on a five-game win streak. San Francisco is at four games. The 49ers will look to slow down the Dolphins’ passing attack – which is second in the NFL with 291.9 yards per game. Deadline-deal running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jeff Wilson Jr., however, will dictate which way this one goes. Is this a potential sleeper Super Bowl preview?
Pick: Dolphins 28, 49ers 27
- Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
Who has more to prove here? The Bengals could get in the mix for home-field advantage in the AFC here, and they have won three straight games without Ja’Marr Chase – who torched the Chiefs with 266 receiving yards in this game last season. The Chiefs are road favorites – and they are 3-1 S/U as a road favorite this season. Given what happened in the AFC championship last season, it can be argued Kansas City has more to prove.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Bengals 26
- Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Chargers won a wild game between the teams in Week 1, and the come-back game promises to be just as entertaining. The Raiders have won two in a row and are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season. The last two meetings at Las Vegas were overtime thrillers, with each team taking one. Will the Raiders play a fourth OT game? Why not?
Pick: Raiders 29, Chargers 26
- Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Cowboys are heavy favorites at home, and this is another game where they hammer away with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard against a middle-of-the-road Indianapolis run defense. Dallas averages 169.8 yards rushing in its last four games. The Colts have shown fight with interim coach Jeff Saturday, but it won’t be enough against Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys 32, Colts 23
- New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Despite the embarrassing loss to the Browns, the Buccaneers still maintain the lead in the NFC South Division. The Saints have been a thorn for Tom Brady in the last three years with six straight victories. It’s a heated rivalry and a gotta-have-it game for the Bucs. Brady delivers on what could be his final Monday Night Football appearance.
Pick: Buccaneers 23, Saints 21
