Who knew arguably the best game of Week 12 would be the AFC South matchup between Houston and Jacksonville?
Make your best NFL script joke here, right? That is one of three matchups between teams with winning records. San Francisco travels to Seattle in the Thanksgiving prime-time game, and Buffalo travels to Philadelphia.
So, yeah, Texans-Jaguars is where it's at in a rematch from Week 3 when the Texans stunned the Jaguars 37-17.
Houston (6-4) has won three games in a row under first-year coach DeMeco Ryans. C.J. Stroud ranks second in the NFL with 2,962 passing yards, and the receiving tandem of Nico Collins and Tank Dell is the talk of fantasy leagues heading toward their stretch run.
Jacksonville (7-3) still has a one-game lead in the division, however. Trevor Lawrence, who has 2,382 passing yards, made that break through last season. The Jaguars have won six of seven games since that first Houston loss, and both teams will be in the mix in December. This is the best the holiday weekend has to offer.
Each week, Sporting News picks every NFL matchup by the spread. A look at our track record this season:
- Straight up: 103-61 (8-6 in Week 11)
- ATS: 83-77-4 (5-9 in Week 11)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 12 (lines courtesy of Caesars):
POWER RANKINGS: 49ers, Cowboys, Broncos keep rising; Seahawks, Steelers slip
NFL picks, predictions for Week 12
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:30 p.m., Fox
The Lions have a chance for a fifth straight victory in the series with Green Bay – a nod to how Dan Campbell has changed the nature of the rivalry. Detroit hammered the Packers 34-20 in the last meeting with 211 rushing yards. Green Bay still can't stop the run, and that will be the difference. Detroit is 3-2 ATS at home.
Pick: Lions 28, Packers 19
Result: Packers 29, Lions 22
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., CBS
Dallas is winning by college football-like margins at home. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS at Jerry World and have beat those opponents by an average of 27.5 points per game. The Commanders would seemingly be an easy pick to be next, but they are 5-1 ATS on the road. Can they protect Sam Howell long enough to keep it interesting? That's a lot of points in a NFC East rivalry game. The Commanders did beat the Cowboys 41-16 in their last Thanksgiving matchup in 2020.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Commanders 21
Result: Cowboys 45, Commanders 10
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The 49ers are 2-0 since the Chase Young trade, and Nick Bosa has generated 2.5 sacks and five QB hits in that stretch. San Francisco has a +6 turnover ratio in those two games, and that will be the key on the road against a banged-up Seattle team that might not have Geno Smith (elbow) and Kenneth Walker III (oblique). Brock Purdy continues that efficient play.
Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 13
Result: 49ers 31, Seahawks 13
- Miami Dolphins (-7.5) at New York Jets
Friday, 3 p.m., Prime Video
Could Aaron Rodgers even save this Jets' offense? The Jets have averaged 9.3 points per game since the bye week, and Zach Wilson has been sacked 19 times in those four games. He was benched for Tim Boyle. The Jets are 3-2 ATS at home with covers against the Chiefs and Eagles, so the opportunity to rise up against a Miami offense that leads the NFL in points per game (30.5) is there. We just don't see it.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Jets 14
Result: Dolphins 34, Jets 13
- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Pick 'Em)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Both NFC South Teams had a bye week to prepare for this matchup. Atlanta is turning back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback moving forward, and the Saints are at .500. Derek Carr has a better QB rating on the road (94.6), and this begins a stretch where the Saints have four divisional games in seven weeks. New Orleans has won five in a row at Atlanta.
Pick: Saints 21, Falcons 17
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Will the Steelers lose to a backup quarterback for the second week in a row? Cincinnati will turn to Jake Browning, who will have a few extra days to prepare for that Pittsburgh pass rush. The Steelers are 2-2 S/U on the road, and they have averaged just 15.8 points per game in those matchups. Ryan Finley led the Bengals to an improbable Monday Night Football upset against Pittsburgh in 2020. Can Browning match it?
Pick: Steelers 21, Bengals 16
- Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are the lone one-win team left in the NFL, and it has been ugly all season. The Titans have averaged 12 points per game through a three-game losing streak, and Derrick Henry has just 45.7 rushing yards per game in those losses. Henry gives Will Levis some run support, but Bryce Young keeps this battle of rookie quarterbacks closer than expected.
Pick: Titans 24, Panthers 21
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Buccaneers have lost five of six games, and that includes three one-score losses. The lack of a running game – Tampa Bay is last in the league with 76.9 rushing yards per game – cannot be trusted on the road. Indianapolis had a bye week to prepare, and they remain in the AFC playoff hunt. They cannot afford to lose this one. Tampa Bay will be a popular upset pick, but we'll stick with the favorite.
Pick: Colts 23, Buccaneers 18
- New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
These are two of the messiest offenses in the NFL, and the Patriots have not named a starter coming out of the bye week. The Giants won last week despite the fact Tommy DeVito was sacked nine times. Turnovers will be the difference. New York is +3. The Patriots are -6.
Pick: Giants 21, Patriots 20
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (Pick 'em)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Jacksonville is 4-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and limit their opponent to less than 100 yards. It's simple. They have to get after Stroud. Jacksonville is 3-2 S/U when the spread is three points or less, with the only losses coming to the Chiefs and 49ers. They need this one a little more considering Houston has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.
Pick: Jaguars 28, Texans 25
- Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Browns continue to win with an elite defense, but the Broncos have won four straight games. Denver has a +11 turnover margin in that streak, which includes three home victories. The Browns added Joe Flacco to the practice squad last week, but it will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson to start against the Broncos. It's another tight game, but Cleveland finds a way on this run that is reminiscent of the “Kardiac Kids” in 1979 and 1980.
Pick: Browns 17, Broncos 16
- Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Rams smashed the Cardinals 26-9 in the first meeting in Week 6. Matthew Stafford led Los Angeles to a comeback victory against the Seahawks, and now another opportunity on the road presents itself. Stafford is 2-1 in head-to-head against Kyler Murray, so that does not change the conversation in what could be another tight game.
Pick: Rams 23, Cardinals 20
- Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
A victory over the Chiefs would probably get Antonio Pierce the full-time head coaching job, right? Kansas City is 9-1 S/U in the last 10 meetings, including three consecutive victories at Las Vegas by an average of 16.3 points per game. Kansas City is working on a short week, but the Raiders will need to have more success on the ground to keep up with a Chiefs' team that turns the ball over a little too much.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 16
- Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Eagles have a short week to get ready for a hit-or-miss Buffalo team that is 1-3 S/U on the road this season. The Bills also have a tough matchup against Kansas City in Week 13. The Eagles are 4-1 S/U when they get four or more sacks. Look for this defense to turn up the pressure on Josh Allen. Jalen Hurts does the rest, and the Eagles build momentum heading into the NFC championship rematch against San Francisco.
Pick: Eagles 28, Bills 21
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Ravens are in control in the rugged AFC North, and the Chargers are on the brink after a sloppy loss at Green Bay. Brandon Staley is 2-5 in one-score games this season. Baltimore is 3-3 in one-score games with a few hiccups, but if Lamar Jackson maintains his 68% completion percentage on the road without mistakes, Baltimore will be fine here.
Pick: Ravens 34, Chargers 20
- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
The Bears are a different offense with Justin Fields, who pushed the Lions to the limit in Week 11. Minnesota beat Chicago 19-13 in Week 6, and Joshua Dobbs got a bit of a reality check in Denver last week. The Vikings have won five in a row in this NFC North rivalry, and three of those have been one-score games.
Pick: Vikings 28, Bears 21
