Last week was another brutal one of NFL game picks and predictions thanks to plenty more surprising results that went against what we thought we know about teams. The only thing we can do is work to make our fearless forecast more formidable for Week 11.
This week's schedule brings us 14 more games with four teams enjoying late bye weeks. The matchups are still rather compelling, leading with New England and Philadelphia back in action.
MORE NFL WEEK 11:
Updated playoff picture | Power rankings
Here's a complete look at our latest pigskin prognostications in managing the number for favorites and underdogs.
NFL Week 11 picks, predictions against the spread
- Game of the Week: New England Patriots (-3 1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots usually play well after a bye under Bill Belichick. The Eagles, however, are coming off a bye themselves, and Doug Pederson did do some great big-game coaching against Belichick in the Super Bowl a couple years ago. Tom Brady has the bigger advantage against a bad Eagles secondary while Carson Wentz draws a tough, deep Patriots secondary. Philadelphia will run well enough to stay in the game, but Brady will outduel Wentz with a game-winning drive.
Pick: Patriots win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
- Game of the Midweek: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2 1/2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Steelers are coming off massive wins against the Colts and Rams to get into AFC wild-card position behind the Ravens in the North. But the Browns are the ones who have beaten the Ravens, and despite the recent results, Cleveland is equipped better than Pittsburgh, especially offensively. The Dawg Pound will be pumped for prime time, and the Browns will continue to save face with a more settled Baker Mayfield outplaying Mason Rudolph.
Pick: Browns win 24-20 and cover the spread.
- Upset of the Week: Chicago Bears (+7) over Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Mitchell Trubisky used the Lions to break out of a massive slump while Jared Goff went deeper into his struggles against the Steelers. The Bears can run the ball on the Rams to make Trubisky comfortable while the Rams face more tough sledding for Todd Gurley and more pressure on Goff. Chicago should have a good fan presence, as well, Sunday night in Los Angeles.
Pick: Bears win 23-20.
- Lock of the Week: Minnesota Vikings (-11 1/2) over Denver Broncos
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
We picked on the Vikings as mild underdogs at Dallas in Week 10, and they decided to throw that in our face by holding off the Cowboys to get a big win. So now we're making up for that disrespect by expecting them to dominate at home against the Broncos. Bad opponent at home in an early afternoon game? That's easy pickings for Kirk Cousins.
Pick: Vikings win 33-10 and cover the spread.
- Dallas Cowboys (-3 1/2) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions can't stop Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott in any way, including covering Elliott or Prescott's wide receivers. The Lions also might be without Matthew Stafford for another week, and Detroit presents no threat in the running game. One-dimensional, downfield passing doesn't work against Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys win 31-14 and cover the spread.
- New Orleans Saints (-5 1/2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints will go back to basics against the Bucs after losing to the lowly Falcons last week. The formula is leaning on their running game to open things up for Drew Brees downfield. From there, it's being prepared to swarm Jameis Winston and force key turnovers. Winston has had some success against New Orleans, but it will be Tampa Bay's overall defense that crumbles Sunday.
Pick: Saints win 31-21 and cover the spread.
- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5 1/2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers should have no trouble running Christian McCaffrey to another big day, which will set up downfield shots to Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore, receivers whose combined speed and quickness can give the Falcons' secondary trouble. Atlanta will try to play divisional spoiler on the road in consecutive weeks, but Carolina tends to play better pass defense at home, and its opponent can't exploit its weakness in run defense.
Pick: Panthers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Nick Foles returns to start for the Jaguars but steps into a matchup against a defense that performs its best at home. Should Jacoby Brissett miss another game, the Colts might be in trouble with Brian Hoyer against Jacksonville's pass rush and secondary. But let's assume he will play and Indianapolis can grind out a win, this time with better clutch play in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Colts win 23-19 and cover the spread.
- New York Jets at Washington Redskins (Pick 'em)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jets got a confidence-building win for Sam Darnold and Adam Gase with their defense also making big plays against the Giants. The Redskins will make a ton of mistakes offensively this week to help New York, while Washington can't stop either Le'Veon Bell or Darnold's veteran receivers.
Pick: Jets win 23-16 and cover the spread.
- Buffalo Bills (-5 1/2) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Buffalo is good at taking care of weak opponents, but ex-Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick has led Miami to two straight wins after scaring his former team on the road three weeks ago. Josh Allen will make a few more plays than Fitzmagic this time to save the day.
Pick: Bills win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This should be fun with Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson running wild and throwing deep. But the difference comes down to the Ravens being able to run the ball better in this matchup and having the superior, deeper secondary to limit the deep-ball damage. Watson will make one or two more key turnovers than Jackson, who will keep building his MVP case against another candidate.
Pick: Ravens win 31-24 and cover the spread.
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14 1/2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals made the 49ers sweat in Arizona a couple weeks ago, but even on a short week, San Francisco will be ready to take care of another division opponent at home in wire-to-wire fashion. The 49ers will fly out of the gate with Jimmy Garoppolo staying hot in this matchup. They'll also run more effectively and get after Kyler Murray more often in the rematch.
Pick: 49ers win 30-13 and cover the spread.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-11 1/2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders will just feed Josh Jacobs and watch him destroy the Bengals' run defense, and Derek Carr also will make some comfortable deep plays off play-action. There's no reason to think this tanking Cincinnati team will be competitive in the Black Hole against a team coming off a long week. Zac Taylor will be schooled by Jon Gruden and his staff.
Pick: Raiders win 31-17 and cover the spread.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3 1/2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chiefs were supposed to play this game in Mexico City against the other Los Angeles team last season, a shootout they lost in LA, instead. Kansas City will get back on track with plenty of Patrick Mahomes, set up well by the running game, ripping apart the Chargers' defense. Philip Rivers will keep slumping against an underrated pass rush, and Melvin Gordon will not run well enough to save the night.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week:
Week 10 record straight up: 5-7
Week 10 record against the spread: 6-6
Season record straight up: 96-50
Season record against the spread: 79-62
Upsets of the Week: 5-5
Locks of the Week: 4-6
