Which upsets are about to go down in Week 1?
The answer lies with a pair of classic NFL franchises trying to get back into the postseason.
Green Bay – which missed the playoffs in Aaron Rodgers' last season with the team – will start a new chapter with quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers are underdogs at Chicago – which is anticipating a full-fledged breakout for third-year quarterback Justin Fields.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, missed the AFC playoffs and is looking for improvement with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Steelers have a tough home opener against San Francisco.
Will the Steelers and Packers pull off small upsets? Is there a third one out there in what should be a predictably unpredictable Week 1?
Each week, Sporting News will pick the games straight up and against the spread: Last season, we were 184-98-2 S/U for a winning percentage of .651. That was an improvement from 2022, when we finished 172-96-1 for a .641 winning percentage. (Odds courtesy of BetMGM).
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 1 (lines courtesy of BetMGM):
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS: SN's complete 2023 standings projections & playoff picks
NFL picks, predictions for Week 1
- Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Lions have over-the-top hype – and it's OK to be cautious knowing the franchise has one playoff victory since 1991. This is a good team, however, and they were 8-3 ATS as an underdog last season. Jared Goff, however, was not nearly as good on the road (87.4 rating in 2022). The defending Super Bowl champion is 14-4 S/U in the NFL Kickoff Game. Patrick Mahomes keeps the Chiefs ahead, and they hold off a Lions' rally.
Pick: Chiefs 36, Lions 29
Result: Lions 21, Chiefs 20
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Two young teams square off here, but the Falcons are a year ahead with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, Kyle Pitts at tight end and the addition of Bijan Robinson at running back. The Panthers should be excited about the future with Bryce Young. Carolina was 2-5 S/U as an away underdog last season, and one of those losses was a 37-34 overtime loss at Atlanta.
Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 21
- Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Joe Burrow returned to practice last week. Cleveland has had his number – Burow is 1-4 in five career starts against the Browns and has yet to win on the road. The Browns also are under the radar a bit despite some savvy offseason additions in Elijah Moore at receiver and Za'Darius Smith at edge rusher. Deshaun Watson should be better, too. The Bengals lost 32-13 at Cleveland last year. This is a good upset pick, but we're sticking with Cincinnati in a close one that gets wild in the fourth quarter. If Burrow does not play, then we will re-evaluate.
Pick: Bengals 34, Browns 28
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Anthony Richardson will be making his first start against a Jacksonville team that took off around Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence last season. The Jaguars ranked 26th in the NFL in sacks last season, so monitor how much they turn up the pressure. Calvin Riley – who has been reinstated after a year-long suspension – will make his presence felt as a new target for Lawrence.
Pick: Jaguars 31, Colts 21
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Buccaneers enter a new chapter with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, which adds to the unpredictability of a road opener against the Vikings. Minnesota is being undervalued this offseason despite a 8-2 S/U home record last season. The Bucs show a little more fight than expected, but Minnesota – much like last season – finds a way in a one-score game.
Pick: Vikings 21, Buccaneers 20
- Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Saints are at home for Derek Carr's debut, and that should make a difference for an offense that averaged 19.4 points per game last season. New Orleans also made some key additions on defense through a draft that added depth with Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey. That helps against the Titans and Derrick Henry. Carr earns high marks for a solid debut.
Pick: Saints 30, Titans 27
- San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Remember when the Steelers pulled off an upset against Cincinnati in Week 1 last season? The 49ers have not won at Pittsburgh since 1996, and Pittsburgh has a defense that could surprise at home. This feels like the unexpected upset we'll over-react to, especially when it comes to the 49ers' quarterback situation in the fallout from the Trey Lance trade.
Pick: Steelers 26, 49ers 23
- Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray will start the season on the PUP list, and there remains no timetable for return. Joshua Dobbs is expected to start in Week 1 after being traded from Cleveland. Bet on Washington, especially after Sam Howell's strong preseason. The Commanders were 4-3 ATS as a favorite last season, however, so it's not a sure thing.
Pick: Commanders 24, Cardinals 16
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
C.J. Stroud will be making his first start for the Texans, but it's a tough spot to open on the road against what should be a loose Ravens' team around Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is 11-4 in Week 1 under John Harbaugh, and they have won five of their last six openers. Those five victories were by an average of 32 points per game. That's not a typo. Jackson connects with Odell Beckham Jr. for at least one score, and the Ravens roll from there.
Pick: Ravens 34, Texans 16
- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
From a perception standpoint, few games will elicit a larger over-reaction in Week 1. Justin Fields is projected to take the next step, but nobody will believe it if he can't beat Green Bay. Fields is 0-4 against the Packers. Jordan Love will make his first start against a franchise that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers torched for a 46-15 record as starters with the Packers. Fields and Love both show promise in a fantastic back-and-forth matchup.
Pick: Packers 30, Bears 28
- Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
There are several subplots in this one. This is Sean Payton's debut with Denver. Will that lead to an improved Russell Wilson? Jimmy Garoppolo also is making his debut with Las Vegas. The Raiders are 6-0 S/U in this AFC West rivalry the last three years and they have won the last three in Denver by an average of 5.7 points per game. Denver breaks that streak against former coach Josh McDaniels.
Pick: Broncos 28, Raiders 23
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
How far removed are we from that Super Bowl LII classic between these teams? Former Alabama quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Mac Jones will be the focus, but we're watching how D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny fare against the Patriots' interior defense. New England was 0-3 ATS as a home underdog last season. The Pats slow this one down, but the Eagles avoid the big mistake on the road.
Pick: Eagles 24, Patriots 17
- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
It's Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa in what has the potential to be an early-season shootout. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, and that means Justin Herbert, who had 367 passing yards in a 23-17 victory against the Dolphins last season. Tagovailoa gets revenge this time, and Tyreek Hill clears 100 yards with ease.
Pick: Dolphins 32, Chargers 27
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Matthew Stafford is back for the Rams, who had the worst kind of Super Bowl hangover in 2022. The Seahawks still have Geno Smith, but look for Pete Carroll to stick with a grind-it-out approach with Kenneth Walker III and rookie Zach Charbonnet. Seattle swept this series last season, but both games were decided by four points or less.
Pick: Seahawks 22, Rams 19
- Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 pm., NBC
The Cowboys have won four in a row in this series, including a pair of one-score games last season. New York. It's another pressure-packed season for Dak Prescott, who is 10-2 for his career against the Giants. New York hangs for four quarters and manages a cover, but Prescott guides a late field-goal drive with a clutch connection to veteran receiver Brandin Cooks.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24
- Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Aaron Rodgers' debut with the Jets is here. Brett Favre won his New York debut in a 20-14 road victory at Miami. Rodgers has a tougher task. Buffalo lost 20-17 at New York last season, and Josh Allen was 34 of 61 (55.7%) with one TD and two interceptions against the Jets last season. Rodgers will be the focus, but the Bills are still the better team. Bold prediction: Buffalo stops a potential game-tying two-point conversion, and the post-game reaction centers on the Jets' and how good they can be with Rodgers.
Pick: Bills 25, Jets 23
