The NFL expanding to a Week 18 mean means there's an extra opportunity to pad our stats with game picks and predictions against the spread. Although Week 17 didn't provide the results to meet our expectations, it's good there's one more chance to get right before the playoffs.
The final week's slate can be tough, given some teams that have clinched playoff positions will be judicious with their regular personnel. On top of that, having all teams play matchups within their own division adds a layer of familiarity and unpredictability.
Here's diving right into our latest and last full fearless forecast for the 2021 season:
(Game odds reflect opening odds for Week 18, courtesy of FanDuel)
NFL POWER RANKINGS:
Chiefs, Cowboys, Colts slip up; Titans, Bengals, Raiders rise for Week 18
NFL picks against the spread for Week 18
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AFC Game of the Week: Chargers (-3, 48.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Chargers have Justin Herbert back on track in their offense, but just as important, their defense enjoyed a get-well game after the Texans debacle in Week 16. The Raiders have grinded through to get into this position of stealing a wild-card berth from the rivals down the road. Derek Carr still is taking lumps and Las Vegas will try to win on the ground. But Los Angeles is more multiple and versatile, and there's much more to exploit against the hosts' defense.
Pick: Chargers win 34-27 and cover the spread.
- NFC Game of the Week: 49ers at Rams (-5.5, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers won the first meeting to stay hot in the series but there's a good chance rookie first-rounder Trey Lance will need to start in the rematch. Lance got warmed up to make big plays with his arm and legs against the Texans, but facing the Rams' pressure and coverage is different. The 49ers also will have limited rushing success. On the other side, Matthew Stafford will reduce the turnovers and pick apart a secondary not built to slow down his wide receivers.
Pick: Rams win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
- Lock of the Week: Colts (-15.5, 44 o/u) over Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts won't waste their second chance to take care of business The Jaguars folded as expected against the Patriots for us last week so we're going right back down that well given how desperate the visitors are to punch a second straight playoff ticket. This shouldn't be hard to do, as Indianapolis can just feed Jonathan Taylor often against a wilted run defense.
Pick: Colts win 30-10 and cover the spread.
- Upset of the Week: Falcons (+4.5, 40.5 o/u) over Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons have had an OK first season with Arthur Smith as head coach. With playoff hopes dashed, they will be focused on playing spoiler for the Saints at home. This is bound to be another close game between the mutually hated Dirty South rivals. New Orleans' offense can be effective against with Taysom HIll, but Atlanta will counter with a strong host effort by Matt Ryan. Younghoe Koo knocks home the game-winner in a physical battle of attrition.
Pick: Falcons win 23-20
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Chiefs (-10, 44.5 o/u) at Broncos
Saturday 4;30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chiefs will do their best to push the Titans for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos folded everywhere last week and Patrick Mahomes continues to absolutely own the team against which he made his first start in his rookie finale. Mahomes is getting great help from the running game and keeps expanding his weaponry. Drew Lock is wasting his weapons and the running game also has gone cold.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-10 and cover the spread.
- Cowboys (-3, 41.5 o/u) at Eagles
The Cowboys need to be careful about their limited chances for a top-two seed, which doesn't mean much anyway with the Packers already having clinched the No. 1 seed, home-field advantage and lone playoff bye head of them. They could be facing the Cardinals in a rematch from their Week 17 and there's also a chance they play the Eagles in consecutive weeks, too. They would be smart to rest key players on both sides so they are at full strength for the wild-card round. The Eagles might play starters a little more for tuneup purposes, especially defensively. Flip a coin when expecting to see not much of Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts.
Pick: Eagles win 20-17.
- Bears at Vikings (-3, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears have won two straight games while the Vikings went frigid against the Packers in Week 17. But as Chicago already has had some late, last highs for Matt Nagy, Minnesota needs to end on a good note at home for Mike Zimmer, just in case. The return of Kirk Cousins at QB should help that cause with Justin Fields still uncertain to play on the other side. Look for Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to trade big rushing games with Justin Jefferson making the difference in the passing games.
Pick: Vikings win 31-24 and cover the spread.
- Packers (-1, 44.5 o/u) at Lions
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers won't be taking chances with a slew of banged-up players, including Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Their defense also could use some healing. Jordan Love will his second extended game action and will need to operate with some other backups. Green Bay also doesn't want to get worn down defensively, setting up a double bye before the divisional playoffs. Detroit hasn't quit in any game all season for Dan Campbell and will take advantage of a rested opponent to end on a positive note. Amon-Ra St. Brown's team gets the better of Equanemious St. Brown's team with a lot of help from D'Andre Swift.
Pick: Lions win 23-20.
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Titans (-10.5, 43.5 o/u) at Texans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans haven't changed their identity without Derrick Henry. They are a little less explosive, but they are an excellent, physical run-heavy team with a defense that stays relentless and is getting more help from a maligned secondary. They will run often again with former Texan D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard and Ryan Tannehill will continue to feed better off the energy. The Texans don't have enough defensively or around Davis Mills to play spoilers.
Pick: Titans win 24-14 but fail to cover the spread.
- Washington Football Team (-6.5, 38.5 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Washington still is pushing for victories with nothing to gain, a testament to the motivation of Ron Rivera. Taylor Heinicke has one more chance to be the unquestioned starter and will build on an OK spread-the-ball performance against the Eagles. The Giants didn't really try much to compete with the Bears last week as their offense and defense have become shells for Joe Judge. Judge already seems to be thinking about how he can better coach in 2022.
Pick: Washington wins 17-14 but fails to cover the spread.
- Steelers at Ravens (-4.5, 42 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers will try to sweep their rivals to salvage something from a disappointing season. The Ravens have been overachieving through all their major injuries to even be at .500, thanks to the coach of John Harbaugh. With the near misses against the Packers and Rams in mind, Baltimore will finish off a familiar opponent at home to create good vibes for a more formidable season with Lamar Jackson in 2022.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
- Bengals at Browns (-3, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals will avoid playing Joe Burrow coming off his right knee tweak, knowing their seeding situation can't change too much, assuming the Chiefs win on Saturday. Cincinnati did it what it needed to do to lock up the division title in Week 17 and will use this meaningless intrastate matchup as a half tuneup and half bye. The Browns, like the Ravens, will position themselves for better fortune next year with a much-needed good performance from Baker Mayfield.
Pick: Browns win 23-17 and cover the spread.
- Patriots (-6, 40 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots will remember how they lost a low-scoring defensive slugfest to the Dolphins in Week 1. The Dolphins pushed for a playoff spot after going into freefall from that winning performance in New England, but that got squashed in a hurry in Tennessee. The Patriots will keep riding the running game and an efficient Mac Jones to outduel Tua Tagovailoa, putting pressure on the Bills to also win as road favorites.
Pick: Patriots win 27-16 and cover the spread.
- Jets at Bills (-16.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills will respond well to the Patriots pushing them again with a division walkover downstate. Josh Allen needs a passing tuneup before the playoffs but Buffalo won't shy away from a red-hot traditional running game, either. The defense also needs to keep attacking and making big plays against Zach Wilson. There's not much to like on any level for the Jets' offense.
Pick: Bills win 31-14 and cover the spread.
- Panthers at Buccaneers (-8, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers are starting Sam Darnold. The Buccaneers will keep starting Tom Brady, but he may not finish and given all their injuries, they won't play any of their banged-up players to best gear up for another Super Bowl run that starts in the wild-card round. The Bucs' defense turns in a confidence-boosting game to prove how deep they can be while the offense becomes more methodical with a run-heavy approach.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
- Seahawks at Cardinals (-6.5, 48 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks came to full life offensively thanks to the Lions matchup, perhaps making one last push for Russell Wilson to enjoy playing in the scheme where an explosive running game begets an explosive passing games. Wilson should stay on point with more big help from Rashaad Penny to keep Seattle in their game, dueling Kyler Murray well. But Arizona started feeling it again on both sides of the ball in Dallas and will make sure it keeps pace with how the Rams play the 49ers.
Pick: Cardinals win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Vinnie Iyer's 2021 picks:
- Week 17 record against the spread: 7-8
- Week 17 record straight up: 12-3
- Season ATS: 140-113
- Season straight up: 172-82
