Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season was another exercise in patience with Sporting News' picks and predictions against the spread. Many of the games played out as expected, but there was still a good chunk of surprise results to go against the grain. Surviving and advancing to the second half is the key after more mixed results.
The challenges will continue in Week 5 with a lot of tight matchups in store with little separation for the opponents. Here's the latest fearless forecast of pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: Undefeated Eagles soar to No. 1; Chiefs, Cowboys also rise as Broncos, Steelers fade for Week 5
NFL picks against the spread for Week 5
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Game of Midweek: Colts at Broncos (-3.5, 44 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Broncos dropped a tough game at the Raiders in Week 5 and also lost running back Javonte Williams (knee) for the season. The good news is, they got Russell Wilson going in the downfield passing game and face a struggling back seven in coverage this week. The Colts at best will have a banged-up Jonathan Taylor (ankle) in the backfield and will be playing another game without defensive leader Shaquille Leonard (concussion). They have been awful on the road this season and Matt Ryan will have a mostly rough night.
Pick: Broncos win 24-13 and cover the spread.
Result: Colts win 12-9.
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AFC Game (and Upset) of the Week: Bengals at Ravens (-3, 48.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Ravens' pass defense isn't living up to expectations because it still needs to blitz to create pressure and its cover cornerbacks are disappointing. The Bengals'' passing game is back to starting hot with Joe Burrow and he can again look for the right mismatches for his wide receiver trio. The Ravens will have success throwing downfield with Lamar Jackson but they don't have the same type of firepower and can't effectively play ball control with their traditional running game.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24.
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NFC Game of the Week: Cowboys at Rams (-4.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:5 p.m. ET, Fox
Will it be Cooper Rush starting at quarterback again or will Dak Prescott rush his return? The Cowboys' offense has cleaned up things around the QB and have more needed pop in the passing game with Michael Gallup back. They won't run all that well against the Rams, but this figures to be an aerial battle where protecting the ball will be a premium. The Rams take the Cooper Kupp vs. CeeDee Lamb duel by holding off a late comeback.
Pick: Rams win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Patriots (-3, 46.5 o/u) over Lions
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Patriots' offense will keep things simple against a Lions' defense that can't stop anything, regardless of who starts at quarterback. Expect a heavy dose of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson at home and for Bill Belichick to have some coverage and pressure tricks in store to cool off Jared Goff. Matt Patricia wants this one badly against the team he used to coach and expect his team to have the smarter, more physical game plan.
Pick: Patriots win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Giants vs. Packers (-8, 41.5 o/u) in London
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
The Giants should be able to roll with Daniel Jones (ankle) but that doesn't really offer much offensive promise beyond Saquon Barkley against a reeling Green Bay run defense. The Packers can pound the Giants front to wear down their pass rush and New York's secondary won't slow down Aaron Rodgers suddenly red-hot top targets. Green Bay fans will trade their cheddar for stilton but their full-force support also will make it feel like Lambeau across the pond.
Pick: Packers win 31-17 and cover the spread.
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Steelers at Bills (-14, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Steelers are turning to rookie Kenny Pickett for his first NFL start over former Bills backup QB Mitchell Trubisky. Look for Pickett to be competitive with his moxie and fearless passing against a banged-up secondary. The Bills will be fine grinding this game away with a more run-leaning attack and leave the backdoor open for the young passer opposite Allen.
Pick: Bills win 31-19 but fail to cover the spread.
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Chargers (-3, 48 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers have a bit of a trap game here given their defense has become a lot more vulnerable against the run, but the number is already pretty small in their favor. The Browns' defense can't stop much without Myles Garrett setting the tone up front, while the Chargers can still frustrate Jacoby Brissett without Joey Bosa. Los Angeles will make sure to put Cleveland in a negative game script to erase any chance of a road stumble.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Bears at Vikings (-7, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears revved up their passing game a little with Justin Fields, but his throwing his still off and they can't fully ride a running game that includes his athleticism. Defensively, they don't have the right cover men to handle Justin Jefferson and a rejuvenated Adam Thielen and proved they can still get gashed by the power run. The Vikings smash another division foe at home to get to 4-1.
Pick: Vikings win 24-16 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks at Saints (-5.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks are getting strong offensive line play to get the most out of Geno Smith and Rashaad Penny, still supported by dangerous wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Saints' offense is being smashed by injuries with rookie wide receiver Chris Olave standing out as the bright spot, but this a big chance to control things with the running game at home. Seattle is healthier and continues to play well outside of the West Coast under Pete Carroll.
Pick: Saints win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Dolphins (-3, 43 o/u) at Jets
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback against his former team, dueling Zach Wilson, who has given the Jets' improved offense a boost. The Jets' issues here will be in the secondary trying to handle Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and the running game against Miami's stout front. Wilson doesn't have the same firepower and the Dolphins' blitz packages will get to him more while Bridgewater gets a little more help from the rushing attack.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-17 and cover the spread.
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Falcons at Buccaneers (-8, 48 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons are near the end of the line with Marcus Mariota with Drake London and Kyle Pitts not being maximized int he passing game. They also will be down key weapon Cordarrelle Patterson on the road. Tampa Bay is overdue for a classic thrashing of a division foe after a tough early schedule. The Bucs' offense started to get very well against the Chiefs. Tom Brady stays hot in a rout.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-14 and cover the spread
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Titans (-2.5, 42.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans continue to be a very unpredictable up-and-down team from week to week. They were lost against the Giants and Bills before beating down the Raiders and Colts. The Commanders are terrible against the pass and wide receivers, but the Titans have limited options there without rookie Treylon Burks. Carson Wentz tends to play better at home against weaker defenses and will make sure Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel get going against bad coverage.
Pick: Commanders win 30-27.
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Texans at Jaguars (-7, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Houston got a little better play from Davis Mills at home against an injury-riddled Chargers defense but it got gashed again in the running game and also gave up plenty of chunk plays in the passing game. The Jaguars' front seven will wreak havoc on the road-weary Mills while Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, James Robinson and Travis Etienne all have their way offensively.
Pick: Jaguars win 34-20 and cover the spread.
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49ers (-5, 39.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The 49ers blew their first two road trips to Chicago and Denver. They will redeem themselves against Carolina, which poses a defensive challenge but won't be able to move the ball to score enough points on San Francisco's defense with Baker Mayfield. There's no universe where Matt Rhule will outcoach Kyle Shanahan and motivate the team he's losing quickly for an upset against a much more formidable opponent.
Pick: 49ers win 27-14 and cover the spread.
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Eagles (-5, 49.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles should get their passing game going in the desert away from the wind, rain and cold at home. Jalen Hurts will roll with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and the Eagles' big-play running game also will have impact. Kyler Murray won't see as many wide-open spaces as a dual threat against Philadelphia's defense.
Pick: Eagles win 30-22 and cover the spread.
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Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 51 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chiefs' offense is a complete running and passing groove with Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders' offense has become run-reliant as Derek Carr is still trying to settle into a a complicated passing game. The Chiefs have tended to crush in this matchup of late and will put Las Vegas in an uncomfortable negative game script while Kansas City moves the ball with its creative will.
Pick: Chiefs win 38-27 and cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 4 record straight up: 11-5
Week 4 record against the spread: 9-7
Season record straight up: 39-24
Season record against the spread: 33-31
