Week 15 was another wild and unpredictable slate of unpredictable NFL games with no leads safe and no teams immune to late drama. The 2022 regular season has three weeks, so there are plenty more gifts to give.
Here's hoping our Week 16 picks against the spread are merry and bright with an action-packed weekend of Christmas goodies ahead and no Grinches in sight.
No matter what happens, the holidays will be happy after diving into latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Lions, Giants, Chargers boost playoff outlooks; Cowboys, Patriots, Jets fade for Week 16
NFL picks against the spread for Week 16
-
Game of Midweek: Jaguars at Jets (-1, 38.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Trevor Lawrence, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, keeps rising as a young franchise QB as the Jaguars keep winning because of their offense. Zach Wilson, the 2021 No. 2 overall, keep struggling as a young non-franchise QB as the Jets try to go back to winning despite their offense. Doug Pederson's team can smell the AFC South title and their diversity of weapons all over the field will cause problems for Robert Saleh's zone-based defense.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Result: Jaguars win 19-3 and cover the spread.
-
Game of the Week: Eagles at Cowboys (-4.5, 46 o/u)
Saturday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles were caught looking a little ahead to this game in Dallas, but saved their win late in Chicago. The Cowboys also seemed to overlook their Week 14 road game in Jacksonville, losing badly in overtime on a Dak Prescott pick six. The Eagles now can win the division outright by just taking this game and get closer to locking up No. 1.
They will be careful, however, with Jalen Hurts and his hurting right shoulder, making it likely this matchup is Gardner Minshew vs. Prescott, while the first was Cooper Rush vs. Hurts.
With Hurts likely out, the Eagles will work to come through for him with Minshew. The offensive line and great weapons that should include tight end Dallas Goedert again are better than what Prescott has right now, and he's also not playing clean enough football. Philadelphia wins with defense while also motivated to put Micah Parsons in his place by winning a big one for Hurts.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24
-
Upset of the Week: Packers (+4.5, 46.5 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Santa Claus may come from the North Pole, but Packers fans like to head down for the winter to warm up from the deep freeze around Lambeau Field. You can bet they'll be in full force to celebrate Christmas in South Beach. The Packers' defense is bad against the run, but the Dolphins are inconsistent running it. Aaron Rodgers is up to the task to outduel Tua Tagovailoa with his own favorable weapons.
Pick: Packers win 27-24.
-
Lock of the Week: 49ers (-7.5, 39.5 o/u) over Commanders
Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Commanders got shut down by the Giants because of a ferocious pass rush and decent run defense. The 49ers' front is nastier and will make another game rough for Taylor Heinicke. The Commanders can't handle the dual threat of Christian McCaffrey and the other healthy weapons around Brock Purdy.
Pick: 49ers win 27-10 and cover the spread.
-
Bills (-8.5, 41 o/u) at Bears
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears just struggled with the strong running and downfield passing with Jalen Hurts. They stayed in the game against the Eagles with plenty of Justin Fields and the running game, which is where to work on Buffalo. The Bills, like the Eagles, may be looking ahead to a bigger matchup the following week, when they travel to Cincinnati. Josh Allen does his thing, but his team grinds with field goals late and leaves the back door open.
Pick: Bills win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
-
Saints at Browns (-1, 32.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns' defense shored up a few things vs. a limited passing offense last week. The Saints still aren't running well with Alvin Kamara while counterpart Nick Chubb got a little more on track against a tough Ravens run defense. Deshaun Watson keeps improving with every week in the Cleveland system will outduel Andy Dalton in a field-goal game.
Pick: Browns win 20-17 and cover the spread.
-
Texans at Titans (-3. 35.5 o/u)
Saturday.1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans are working through some kinks offensively with little pop in the passing game, now back to being operated by rookie Malik Willis, who handled this matchup the first time. But the one constant source of production, Derrick Henry hasn't let them down with his power running and underrated receiving. The Texans are scrapping and fighting, but will get worn down in a physical division game.
Pick: Titans win 20-14 and cover the spread.
-
Seahawks at Chiefs (-9.5, 48.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks have had a nice surprise season to be .500 after Week 15, Geno Smith and the offense has a ton on them with the run defense falling apart. Seattle will stay in the game with Kenneth Walker's running and DK Metcalf working on young corners minus Tyler Lockett. The Chiefs will figure out turning more to the run in the second half while Pete Carroll makes it interesting vs. Andy Reid for a while.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-26 but fail to cover the spread.
-
Giants at Vikings (-3.5, 47.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings, well recovered from their furious epic and record comeback over the Colts, will make things a little simpler by running red-hot Dalvin cook often vs. New York, setting up favorable downfield passing shots to Justin Jefferson have others. Minnesota will work to contain Saquon Barkley as it gets a break with the Giants not having enough dangerous receiving weapons.
Pick: Vikings win 24-17 and cover the spread.
-
Bengals (-3.5, 39.5 o/u) at Patriots
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Joe Burrow was stone cold in coming back to defeat Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on the road. He will give Bill Belichick and a suddenly reeling Patriots' pass defense the same feeling. The Bengals are still solid vs. the run defensively and thier diverse receiving weapons around Burrow will make it hard for Belichick to find enough bodies to take away key elements.
Pick: Bengals win 31-23 and cover the spread.
-
Lions (-2.5, 44.5 o/u) at Panthers
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Jared Goff did just enough against a tough defense on the road for the Lions to win last week. They keep improving a little defensively by containing the run and not let team pass at will against them. The Panthers have become too dependent on the run and were exposed by the Steelers in that capacity at home. Detroit has real playoff momentum, while Carolina is limping to the end.
Pick: Lions win 20-17 and cover the spread.
-
Falcons at Ravens (-7, 37.5 o/u)
Saturday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons were competitive with rookie QB Desmond Ridder because of a dominant running game in Week 15. That won't happen again vs. the Ravens' front, putting Ridder in uncomfortable passing situations while either Tyler Huntley or Lamar Jackson get better rushing support.
Pick: Ravens win 23-10 and cover the spread.
-
Raiders at Steelers (-3, 39.5 o/u)
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Raiders are facing a tougher Steelers' defense with T.J. Watt back and plenty of help up front and in the back end. They are playing hard trying to salvage another winning season Mike Tomlin. The Raiders go up and down and are hard to predict, but they are less reliable on the road and the Steelers should grind this out late with Najee Harris outrushing fellow former Alabama back Josh Jacobs.
Pick: Steelers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
-
Broncos (-1, 35.5 o/u) at Rams
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Rams' defense is fighting and playing hard despite the QB mess. So is the Broncos offense. Russell Wilson should be returning for this game in a throwback AFC West matchup. Sean McVay likes to grind with his offense in low-scoring affairs and Baker Mayfield should play better for him back at home. It's messy, but L.A.'s coaching edge playing bah humbug vs. Nathaniel Hackett.
Pick: Rams win 20-17.
-
Buccaneers (-4.5, 41.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Buccaneers can still stuff their stockings with another trip to the playoffs led by Tom Brady. Kliff Kingsbury, once drafted behind Brady in New England, is facing a lump of coal with his future, given Kyler Murray down and Colt McCoy concussed. The Cardinals' defense is falling apart and Brady got the Bucs' offense a little revved up last week despite the loss to the Buccaneers. Their reeling defense also gets a break here.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
-
Chargers (-4, 47 o/u) at Colts
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chargers are learning to win in different ways instead finding new ways to lose. They are feeling confident in their playoff push with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and an improving defense with reinforcements on the way. The Colts lost their key weapon for this matchup, Jonathan Taylor. This is a brutal spot for new starting QB Nick Foles under one-dimensional duress at home.
Pick: Chargers win 24-17 and cover the spread.
-
Stats of the Week
Week 15 record straight up: 13-3
Week 15 record against the spread: 8-7
Season record straight up: 152-80
Season record against the spread: 110-108
