NFL Week 12 picks from The Quants

Rufus Peabody for Massey-Peabody

NFL Week 12 picks from The Quants image

Week 11 was tough on a number of levels. We finished with a 1-2 record on official plays, and a 1-1 record on Break-Even or Better selections. That doesn’t tell the full story, though.

We whiffed pretty badly on the Washington (-7) pick, as the dysfunctional Dead Skins lost to Tampa Bay at home by 20. Buoyed by a strong second half, Miami (-5) got the cover for us on Thursday night vs. Buffalo. But we were on the wrong side of some bad fortune with our Giants (+4) pick. Eli Manning had thrown four interceptions, but the Giants still had a chance to cover (and win outright) with five minutes remaining and a first down at the 49ers’ 4-yard line. After three straight unsuccessful fades(!), coach Tom Coughlin decided – correctly – to forgo the field goal (which would have given us the backdoor cover) and go for it. Manning throws another pick. We lose.

We also had a chance to win our Carolina (+1) BEOB pick, but Graham Gano missed a field goal in the final minutes, then another one (albeit a 62-yarder) as time expired. We did get the win with Tennessee (+6) covering in a loss to Pittsburgh.

Some of this week’s picks are below.  Our best bets run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers on Sporting News’ free newsletter. Sign up for that right here!

Week 11 closing-line value

It was by far our worst week of the year in terms of closing-line value. In fact, I think it’s the only week lines have moved against us overall. And it was the difference between a win and a loss in the Carolina game.

-- Washington: picked -7, closed -6.5, CLV -0.5
-- Miami: picked -5, closed -3.75, CLV -1.25
-- NY Giants: picked +4, closed +4, CLV 0.0
-- *Carolina: picked +1, closed +2.5, CLV -1.5
-- *Tennessee: picked +6, closed +7, CLV +1.0
*Break-even or better picks (non-official)

Week 12 Picks:

Big Plays (12-7 YTD)*
--Two best bets this week.  Register for the newsletter, then check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday.

Other Plays (8-5 YTD)
--Indianapolis -13.5/-14 vs. Jacksonville [MP Line: IND -16.8]
--Washington +9 at San Francisco [MP Line: WAS +6.7]

Break-Even or Better (7-14 YTD)
--Kansas City -7 at Oakland [MP Line: KC -10.0] (already posted)
--Atlanta -3/-3.5 vs. Cleveland [MP Line: ATL -5.1]
--Chicago -6 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: CHI -8.4]
--Seattle -6.5 vs. Arizona [MP Line: SEA -8.8]
--Dallas -3/-3.5 at New York Giants [MP Line: DAL -5.4]

* Editors' note: Massey-Peabody is officially scoring their Big Play record 11.5-7-0.5 YTD, while we're giving them the benefit of the better line in the Green Bay-Miami game in Week 6, when the Dolphins either covered (+3.5) or pushed (+3).

Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 2:50 p.m. ET.  I am listing Indy at both -13.5 and -14 since the offshore market is generally at -13.5, while Vegas is primarily -14.

Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window.  For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com.

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Rufus Peabody for Massey-Peabody