A small-volume, losing week in the NFL last week (1-2). We were on the right side of one of the two blowouts, and on the wrong side of the one close game. The Dolphins (-1.5) surprised everyone in how thoroughly they dominated the Chargers, winning 37-0. As much as I’d like to say ‘yeah, we saw that one coming’, Massey-Peabody only made Miami a 4.1-point favorite.
On the other extreme, our second consecutive week backing Baltimore at a pick ‘em line resulted in a second loss. Pittsburgh took advantage of a depleted Ravens secondary and won convincingly, 43-23. Still, the Ravens remain near the top of the MP ratings and Pittsburgh barely crosses into positive territory. That’s the NFL for you ... any given Sunday.
Our one Other Play – the Redskins (pick ‘em) – felt like two losses, since I’m a lifelong masochist Redskin fan. Yes, RG3 had an inconsistent game, but the real reason the Redskins lost was their inability to stop the Vikings’ pedestrian offense in the second half.
Some of this week’s picks are below. Our Big Plays run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers on Sporting News’ free newsletter. Sign up for that right here!
Week 9 closing-line value
Last week was a wash in terms of line-move value. Big move against us in the BAL/PIT game and small moves our way in WAS/MIN and MIA/SD.
--Miami: picked -1.5, closed -2.75, CLV +1.25
--Baltimore: picked 0, closed +2.25, CLV -2.25
--Washington: picked 0, closed -1 CLV +1.0
Week 10 picks:
Big Plays (11-5 YTD)*
-- Two best bets this week. Register for The Linemakers’ newsletter today, then check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
Other Plays (5-4 YTD)
-- Baltimore -9.5 vs. Tennessee [MP Line: BAL -12.5]
-- New York Jets +4.5 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: NYJ +2.6]
Break-Even or Better (6-13 YTD)
-- no plays this week
* Editors' note: Massey-Peabody is officially scoring their Big Play record 10.5-5-0.5 YTD, while we're giving them the benefit of the better line in the Green Bay-Miami game in Week 6, when the Dolphins either covered (+3.5) or pushed (+3).
MP Lines (means, not medians!) for remaining games:
-- Cincinnati -6.4 vs. Cleveland
-- **Dallas -10.6 vs. Jacksonville (neutral field; assumes Romo is healthy)
-- Kansas City -0.4 at Buffalo
-- New Orleans -6.7 vs. San Francisco
-- Denver -11.5 at Oakland
-- Arizona -8.0 vs. St. Louis
-- Seattle -10.0 vs. New York Giants
-- Green Bay -7.2 vs. Chicago
-- Philadelphia -5.1 vs. Carolina
*We are grading half of the MIA play at the line of +2.5, and half of it at the line of +3.
**Since there’s no true market on this game as of this posting, we’re not classifying it as a play.
Pick criteria: Big Plays have a 55 percent or better chance of covering; Other Plays are 54 to 55 percent; BEOB picks are 53.5 to 54 percent. Note that these probabilities are based on the historic predictive power of Massey-Peabody lines factoring in the closing line. Since we expect movement in our direction generally, these probabilities are conservative.
Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window. For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com.
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