Week 12 was an excellent one for Massey-Peabody picks, with our official plays going a perfect 4-0. For our Big Plays, Miami (+7) was up 11 in the fourth quarter and looking like an easy winner before three Denver touchdowns (the last on an interception returned inside the 5-yard line). But the Dolphins bailed us out, driving down the field for a late touchdown (converting a fourth-and-3 in the process) and giving us the backdoor cover. Baltimore (+3/+3.5), behind a dominant run game, pulled away from New Orleans on Monday night, winning by seven.
For our second-level Other Plays, Indianapolis (-13.5/-14) certainly did not play its best game. This pick looked like it had no chance in the first half, and Indy was lucky not to be trailing. Leading by only three at halftime, the Colts ran off 17 unanswered points, and then made a critical goal-line stand to preserve the cover. Washington (+9), behind a rejuvenated rushing attack, almost won outright, despite another poor performance from Robert Griffin III. We got the cover, but as a Skins fan, it was still a disappointing result. With two chances in the final minutes to drive his team down the field for a go-ahead touchdown, RG3 was not able to get a single first down.
Our unofficial Break-Even or Better selections failed to break even, going 2-2-1. Dallas (-3/-3.5)* won by three for the push. Seattle (-6.5) held Arizona without a touchdown in a convincing win. Chicago (-6) rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win by eight. Kansas City (-7) lost outright to a previously winless Raiders team, while Atlanta (-3/-3.5) lost a tight game to Cleveland.
Some of our Week 13 picks are below. We are offering one Big Play in this article, since it’s for one of Thursday’s games, but most of our best bets run in Friday’s edition of The Linemakers’ on Sporting News’ free newsletter. Sign up for that here!
Week 12 closing-line value
It was a subpar week in line movement, though a few of the moves in our favor went across key numbers. Official picks moved only .06 points our way on average. BEOB moved a tenth of a point against us on average.
--Miami: picked +7, closed +6.5, CLV +0.5
--Baltimore: picked +3.25, closed +2.75, CLV +0.5
--Indianapolis: picked -13.75, closed -13, CLV -0.75
--Washington: picked +9, closed +9, CLV 0.0
--*Dallas: picked -3.25, closed -4, CLV +0.75
--*Seattle: picked -6.5, closed -7.5, CLV +1.0
--*Chicago: picked -6, closed -4.25, CLV -1.75
--*Kansas City: picked -7, closed -7.25, CLV +0.25
--*Atlanta: picked -3.25, closed -2.5, CLV -0.75
* Break-even or better (non-official) picks
Week 13 Picks
Big Plays (14-7 YTD)*
--Chicago +7 at Detroit [MP Line: CHI +2.7]
--We have four more Big Plays this week, so register for the newsletter and check your email after 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
Other Plays (10-5 YTD)
--Baltimore -5.5 vs. San Diego [MP Line: BAL -8.6]
--New Orleans +4.5 at Pittsburgh [MP Line: NO +1.9]
Break-Even or Better (9-16-1 YTD)*
--Tennessee +6 at Houston [MP Line: TEN +4.4]
--Oakland +7 at St. Louis [MP Line: OAK +5.7]
Editors’ note: We are giving Massey-Peabody the benefit of the better line on two games, where the number was between 3 and 3.5.
MP Lines (means, not medians) on remaining games:
--Seattle -0.0 at San Francisco
--Indianapolis -10.3 vs. Washington
--New York Giants -3.2 at Jacksonville
--Cincinnati -4 at Tampa Bay
--Green Bay -2.8 vs. New England
--Kansas City -0.2 vs. Denver
--Dallas -4.6 vs. Philadelphia
Play criteria remain the same: Big Plays (55%+), Other Plays (54-55%), Break-Even or Better (52.5-54%). These numbers are conservative, since we regress the MP line towards the market number (but regression amount is based on the closing line, which is more efficient than the line on Thursday). Massey-Peabody lines are determined by taking the difference in team ratings, adding a standard home-field advantage, and adjusting for extra rest (byes and Thursday games). Picks are based on Vegas Insider consensus lines as of 3:10pm PT Wednesday.
Massey-Peabody uses a quantitative approach to sports handicapping and uses its calculations to profit at the bet window. For more valuable betting information, visit Massey-Peabody.com.
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