The hits kept coming last week in NFL survivor pools with Tampa Bay and Green Bay getting upset, and this week's most popular picks present a fair amount of risk, too. Life isn't much easier in NFL pick 'em pools, but that's why we've enlisted the experts from PoolGenius to highlight five potential Week 7 NFL picks that could give you an edge in your office pools.
The picks highlighted in this post finished 2-3 last week, our first sub-.500 week of the season. We got the worst of a couple of very close results with two upset picks, including Denver losing in overtime to the Chargers and the Saints giving up a big TD pass in the final minutes after leading the Bengals all game.
Our pick 'em value picks are now 22-8 season to date, while the average public picker went 15-15 on those same 30 games. Results like that are a big reason why our subscribers this year have reported winning a weekly pick 'em contest prize at a rate almost four times as high as expected.
In survivor pools, both the public and our subscribers advanced about 45 percent of their remaining entries. Through six weeks, though, only four percent of the public is still alive in survivor pools compared to 14 percent of our subscriber entries.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius -- the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Check out their Football Pick 'em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
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Week 7 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 7 value picks
Making good predictions is only part of the story when it comes to maximizing your edge in football picks pools. You also need to consider how your opponents are expected to pick each game. After all, you can only move up in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. Two general strategies can help achieve that goal:
- Look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gamble
- Avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk
The picks listed below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 7 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. However, that doesn't mean you should pick all of them -- the upset picks especially. Read our football pick 'em strategy to find out why.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants
Point Spread: -3.0
Pick Popularity: 28%
Category: Value favorite
New York is riding high after another comeback win to get to 5-1. Meanwhile, the Jaguars fell to 2-4 with their third straight loss. Close-game performance is the entire differentiator here, as New York is 5-1 in one-score games and Jacksonville is 0-4, but Jacksonville possesses the slightly better point differential on the season, which is a more predictive stat over the long term.
So, the Jaguars are favored, but the public is heavily on New York this week. This makes for a great value play in game-winner pools where you can pick the more likely winner while most of your opponents are taking the underdog.
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Point Spread: PK
Pick Popularity: 33%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
While we are at it, let’s add a pick against the other New York team, whose win/loss record is also currently better than the underlying stats would imply after another big win at Green Bay. Denver’s offense hasn’t been clicking at all, but their defense has kept them in every game. Unlike the Jets, though, the Broncos have just come up short at key moments.
Of course, we need to monitor the news on Russell Wilson, who reportedly suffered a hamstring injury late in the Monday Night game. So, whether this one remains a value play by Sunday kickoff might depend on how news breaks the rest of the week.
That said, this game opened with the Broncos favored by a field goal and has dropped three points with the news. The markets have already adjusted a fair amount for the risk of a struggling Wilson not playing, but there’s still value in fading the public here.
WEEK 7 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: +3.0
Pick Popularity: 14%
Category: Value gamble in weekly contests
San Francisco is the biggest underdog value play this week. The 49ers are a true Jekyll-and-Hyde team, capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone. To illustrate that point, consider that San Francisco is a perfectly average 21-21 since the start of the 2020 season. Yet, the 49ers have a better win-loss record as an underdog (8-6) than as a favorite (13-15).
The public has jumped off the San Francisco train this week following their upset loss at Atlanta, but our models like San Francisco against the spread in this game. The risk-reward calculus for making an upset pick here in weekly prize pools looks sound with just 14 percent of the public picking the 49ers to win.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Pick 'em Pool Picks | Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Point Spread: +3.0
Popularity: 22%
Category: Value gamble in weekly contests
The Colts are another unpopular small underdog that might be worth the risk in weekly prize pools given the public picking trends. The Colts have 46-percent win odds against the Titans but only 22 percent of the public is picking Indianapolis.
It’s somewhat understandable that the public would trust the Titans, as they have beaten the Colts in four straight games, including at Indianapolis earlier this year. But the Colts are coming off their best offensive game of the season (34 points and 29 first downs) and could be getting RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) back this week.
WEEK 7 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Point Spread: +2.0
Popularity: 31%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
Our final value pick is the Saints in a toss-up type game on Thursday Night Football. The Saints have consistently put up points this year despite myriad offensive injuries, and we'll see who is available in a short week. (Rookie WR Chris Olave has already been confirmed back from concussion protocol.)
However, the Cardinals have injury issues of their own and have struggled far more on offense even before losing WR Marquise Brown (foot) and OT Justin Pugh (knee). Arizona does get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from his suspension this week, but things haven’t been rosy for an Arizona offense that ranks last in net yards per pass attempt after six games.
With the public going Arizona’s way at a more than 2-to-1 ratio, there is a decent value proposition on the Saints to start Week 7.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Here are the five most popular Week 7 picks in survivor pools as of this writing:
- New England (27% pick popularity) vs. Chicago
- Tampa Bay (20%) at Carolina
- Las Vegas (18%) vs. Houston
- Dallas (13%) vs. Detroit
- Cincinnati (5%) vs. Arizona
Tampa Bay is the biggest betting odds favorite this week and the highest-value survivor pick in the short term. On the flip side, the Bucs also have the most future weeks this season in which they could be valuable in survivor pools, forcing a trade-off decision.
New England and Las Vegas both have low future value in survivor pools, and this week may be their top matchup of the year in terms of expected win odds. That's why they are climbing in popularity as survivor picks. Dallas probably has too much future value to use in a spot where it is not high value this week. Cincinnati has been used by some entries already and would be an unpopular contrarian this week, but the Bengals are favored by less than a touchdown and do carry a little extra risk compared to the other choices.
Get All Our Week 7 NFL Picks
Football Pick 'em Picks from PoolGenius is the only product that provides customized picks and tools to maximize your edge in NFL and college football pick 'em contests.
It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win game-winner pools, point-spread pools, and confidence pools, optimizing pick recommendations based on your pool's size, rules, and prize structure.
NFL Survivor Picks is our product for survivor pools, again providing customized weekly pick recommendations based on the size and specific rules of the survivor pools you play in and the teams each of your entries has already used so far.
Since 2017, our subscribers have reported winning prizes in pick 'em and survivor pools more than three times as often as expected. So, if you learned something from this article, we encourage you to check out the products. You can start with our free trial below.
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Good luck in your pools this week!
