The Eagles and Chiefs almost continued the trend of mass carnage in NFL survivor pools last week, but they narrowly avoided huge upsets, so most of the remaining survivor entries lived to pick another week. The outlook wasn't quite so rosy in pick 'em pools, where plenty of toss-up games left most entries sporting records around .500. Don't expect things to be any easier when making your Week 5 NFL picks.
Fortunately, PoolGenius is here to help by highlighting five Week 5 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool. You'll also get an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape.
Week 5 gives us two big favorites in Miami and Detroit, a big NFC showdown between Dallas and San Francisco, and the game that looked a lot more intriguing on paper in August between the Jets and the Broncos.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that harnesses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning prizes in football pick’em contests and NFL survivor pools more than three times as often as expected.
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Week 5 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 5 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 5 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations. (To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick'em pool should influence your picks, read our free articles about football pool strategy.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 4, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
Cincinnati Bengals (at Arizona Cardinals)
Point Spread: -3
Pick Popularity: 60%
Category: Value favorite
A month ago, you probably wouldn’t have guessed that Cincinnati would be only a field goal favorite at Arizona -- or that the public would be picking the Cardinals at a high rate for an underdog.
Cincinnati has scored just three offensive touchdowns in four games and fell to 1-3 on Sunday. Arizona is also 1-3, but the vibes are very different, as the Cardinals have been surprisingly competitive throughout the early going.
The public is even further down on Cincinnati, as it is coming as a value favorite here, with enough pool participants picking the Cardinals in an upset. We could look back and either see this as the turnaround week or the week the Bengals confirmed that they just don't have it in 2023.
WEEK 5 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Atlanta Falcons (vs. Houston Texans)
Point Spread: -2
Pick Popularity: 44%
Category: Value favorite
Atlanta looked bad against Jacksonville last week, as Desmond Ridder threw back-to-back picks in the first half and the Falcons lost 23-7. Houston, meanwhile, put up a second straight impressive performance, beating the Steelers handily, 30-6.
Atlanta is the slight favorite here, close to a toss-up, but the public is coming down more frequently on the side of the Texans. Making value picks often involves going against the recent results, and this is a prime example of that.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Buffalo Bills in London)
Point Spread: +5.5
Pick Popularity: 3%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Bills have rolled for three straight weeks and now travel across the pond to London. The Jaguars just beat Atlanta in London last week and get to stick around for another contest. This is the first time a team has played twice in London in the span of two weeks (or twice at all in the same season). If you are looking for an unknown factor that could contribute to more uncertainty, that is a strong one, as Jacksonville will have a travel edge.
Meanwhile, the public is strongly certain that the Bills will win, with close to 97 percent of all picks on Buffalo. This may not be the right pick for all pool types, but it makes for a compelling upset pick in weekly contests, particularly in larger pools.
WEEK 5 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Green Bay Packers)
Point Spread: +1
Popularity: 31%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
Las Vegas is a league-worst -9 in turnover margin through four games, contributing to them not maximizing their scoring relative to their yards. Green Bay actually has a worse yardage differential between the two. The Packers have outperformed their expectation based on yards gained, ranking first in our yards-per-point metric, something that can indicate regression.
Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) could also be back this week, which could impact the odds, but it's possible the Raiders are a value pick in a game that is closer to a toss-up than the public thinks.
Denver Broncos (vs. New York Jets)
Point Spread: -1.5
Popularity: 47%
Category: Value favorite
The Zach Wilson love-fest is in effect following what was a uniquely decent performance on Sunday Night Football. Now, he gets to face a struggling Denver defense, but the Broncos are the betting favorite at home and coming at a slight value. It’s close, but you are getting a bit of value by sticking with the favored team in a close contest, as over half the public is taking the Jets.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Now let’s turn to survivor pools, where all the popular picks made it through last week. The closest call came in Philadelphia, who needed overtime to beat Washington, but ultimately over 95 percent of entries in an average survivor pool advanced.
In Week 5, we have two popular picks monopolizing the situation. The Detroit Lions (38%) and Miami Dolphins (36%) are in a close race for the most popular spot, but no other third-party candidate is all that worthy in the public’s eyes.
Detroit is facing winless Carolina at home, favored by 10 points, while Miami gets the hapless Giants at home as an 11-point favorite. The next most popular team, Washington Commanders (8%), will play Chicago on Thursday Night Football.
No other team is over five-percent pick popularity this week so far, with the Buffalo Bills (vs. Jacksonville) and Cincinnati Bengals (at Arizona) rounding out the top five in popularity this week.
Despite Detroit and Miami's popularity, they both have a fair amount of future value if you can save them this week. It also presents an opportunity to play against two very popular teams if you are willing to take on more risk.
Get All Our Week 5 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 5 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 5 picks!
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