Last week brought mass carnage to NFL survivor pools, as three of the five most popular picks lost. If you're still alive -- and since you're reading this, we assume you are -- your odds of winning increased greatly, and you don't want to survive hell week just to blow it with your Week 4 pick. It was a similar story in pick 'em pools, where big upsets and tough toss-up games left many feeling lucky to go .500.
In this post, we'll highlight five NFL Week 4 picks that can help you move up the standings in your 2023 football pick 'em or confidence pool and also give an overview of the NFL survivor pool pick landscape for Week 4.
Week 4 gives us two of the top contenders that didn’t collapse last week, Kansas City and San Francisco, returning as both big favorites and popular picks. In pick 'em contests, you'll also get to pick divisional showdown games in the AFC East, AFC North, NFC North, and NFC South that will determine the division leaders after a month of play.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that harnesses the power of algorithms to maximize your edge in football pools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning prizes in football pick’em contests and NFL survivor pools more than three times as often as expected.
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Week 4 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 4 value picks
To increase your edge in football pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. Besides, point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win, and very few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds.
The bigger edge in pick ’em pools comes from learning how to apply game theory because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. To do that, you need to identify the smartest opportunities to differentiate your picks from the crowd, such as:
- Making a highly unpopular pick that is worth a calculated gamble
- Avoiding trendy upset picks where risk is higher but reward is lower
The picks below provide some of the best chances to differentiate your NFL Week 4 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all five of them (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall, but they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations. (To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick'em pool should influence your picks, read our free articles about football pool strategy.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 26, but data often changes between publication time and kickoff. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates all data multiple times per day.
New York Giants (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Point Spread: -1.5
Pick Popularity: 29%
Category: Value favorite
The Giants return home after a 10-day break for a Monday Night showdown with Seattle. The public is all over the Seahawks -- or maybe all over picking against the Giants.
About 70 percent of pick 'em pool entries nationwide are taking Seattle, but the Giants are the slight betting odds favorite in this game. Seattle’s pick popularity puts them above not only the Giants, but seven other favorites this week.
You don’t often get opportunities to pick against a highly popular team that is also an underdog. The Giants have struggled in their two losses, both of which were prime-time games against great defenses. Seattle, though, ranks near the bottom of the NFL in yards allowed and points allowed.
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 47%
Category: Value favorite
The Dolphins just torched the Broncos 70-20 and look like they have the league’s most explosive offense in 2023. The Bills, though, are the home favorite here and have quietly put up two dominant performances to rebound from their opening week Monday Night Football turnover fest against the Jets. The Bills have won the last two games by a combined score of 75-13.
So, you can get a little value here by sticking with the betting favorite at home in this AFC East battle while over half the public is going the other way.
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Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)
Point Spread: +1.0
Pick Popularity: 36%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
Green Bay is an unpopular pick at home in a pretty even-looking contest against the Lions. In weekly prize contests especially, that means there's some value in taking the Packers.
Watch the injury reports here, though. The Packers have been without RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) for the last two weeks and without WR Christian Watson (hamstring) all season, but right now, it looks like both will be back for the Thursday night contest.
WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Houston Texans (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Point Spread: +3.0
Popularity: 21%
Category: Value gamble upset in weekly pools
The young Texans put up an impressive performance at Jacksonville, winning 37-17 and leading wire to wire. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has looked like the real deal, averaging over 300 yards passing this season and throwing four touchdown passes and no interceptions so far.
Pittsburgh got back on track on the road against the Raiders but has still been inconsistent on offense. The underdog Texans present a decent value play in weekly prize pools with just 21 percent of the public picking them so far this week, and their odds to win roughly twice that number.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Point Spread: +2.5
Popularity: 30%
Category: Value gamble upset in weekly pools
The Titans are coming off an ugly offensive performance against the Browns and are back at home as a slight underdog against the Bengals. You know who else had an ugly performance against the Browns? These Bengals, who are coming off their first win despite scoring just 19 points.
The public is overrating the Bengals' chances after watching their prime-time win on Monday Night Football, making the Titans an upset value play this week.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Now let’s turn to survivor pools, where last week gave us three big upsets that wreaked havoc. Dallas was the biggest one, while losses by Baltimore and Jacksonville also eliminated many survivor entries.
How unusual was last week? It marks only the second time since 2003 that there were four or more NFL favorites of more than a touchdown in the same week and over half of them lost.
In Week 4, San Francisco is the most popular survivor pick (39-percent popularity) and also the biggest favorite by a pretty wide margin (-14 point spread). Enough entries already picked the 49ers in past weeks that their pick popularity will not get too much higher by Sunday.
However, if you are in a larger survivor pool, you do at least have to consider whether you want to let your opponents burn San Francisco while you save them for later in the year when they are a big favorite but few others can pick them. If you do not take San Francisco, Kansas City (19-percent pick popularity) and Philadelphia (17 percent) are the only two other teams favored by more than a touchdown right now.
After that, there is a pretty big pick popularity dropoff to Dallas (six percent) and the Chargers (five percent). Of those two teams, Dallas has far more future value as a survivor pick based on their upcoming schedule, though the Chargers do get Chicago at home in Week 8.
Get All Our Week 4 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick ’em and survivor contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to analyze information like win odds and pick popularity to identify value picks, you also need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 4 entries.
That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks products. They are the only tools that provide customized weekly pick recommendations for football pick 'em and survivor pools, using algorithms that give you the best chance to win.
Try them out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 4 picks!
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