Last week continued our run of good picks, as teams highlighted in this article went 4-1 while the public averaged just 2.8 wins from those same five games. Only a late interception by Houston's Davis Mills that set up a winning field goal for the Bears prevented a 5-0 sweep. That's what we're aiming for this week with our expert tips on five potential Week 4 NFL picks that could give you a big edge in confidence or pick 'em pools.
Since the public tends to overreact to results early in the season, Week 4 again presents some interesting opportunities to go against popular picks with the odds on your side.
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Week 4 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 4 value picks
Making good predictions is only part of the story when it comes to maximizing your edge in football picks pools. You also need to consider how your opponents are expected to pick each game. After all, you can only move up in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. Two general strategies can help achieve that goal:
- Look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gamble
- Avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk
The picks listed below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 4 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. However, that doesn't mean you should pick all of them -- the upset picks especially. Read our football pick 'em strategy to find out why.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins
Point Spread: -4.0
Pick Popularity: 44%
Category: Value favorite
The public is on the 3-0 Dolphins, but Cincinnati is the home favorite by more than a field goal on Thursday night. That makes Cincinnati a high value pick to start the week.
Miami is fortunate to be 3-0. The Dolphins were out-gained by nearly 300 yards against Buffalo, but they held on for a close victory (despite a butt punt). They also had a big, improbable comeback against Baltimore. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is 1-2 but just a few plays away from being 3-0, losing in overtime to Pittsburgh and on a last-second field goal against Dallas.
We also don’t know for sure that Miami QB Tua Tagoavailoa (back, ankle), is going to play on Thursday night, as he hasn’t practiced as of Tuesday. It makes sense to take the public discount here and stick with the favored Bengals.
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns
Point Spread: +1.5
Pick Popularity: 31%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
The Falcons worked as a value pick last week, and they are once again being discounted by the public in Week 4 facing the Browns at home.
The Falcons have been quietly competitive in every game and just beat Seattle on the road. It’s also worth monitoring Cleveland DE Myles Garrett’s health. He was involved in a car crash on Monday and was released from the hospital, but it was still a significant crash that involved a rollover. While we hope that he is okay, his evolving status could impact this game's odds, so keep an eye on this one a kickoff gets closer.
Without Garrett, Cleveland should probably be the underdog, as he is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Either way, this game is closer than the public thinks, as it’s one of the shorter spreads on the board in Week 4.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Point Spread: -2.5
Pick Popularity: 28%
Category: Value favorite
49ers-Rams is another game where the public is on the road team with the better record despite the home team is favored. This is also a matchup that has favored San Francisco in recent years, as the 49ers are 6-1 against the Rams over the past three seasons. The one win for the Rams was in last year's NFC Championship Game.
Over that span, the Rams have averaged only 301 total yards per game against the 49ers, as San Francisco's defense has frequently frustrated them. The Rams' offense has also been struggling despite their 2-1 start, ranking just 25th in total yards after three games.
You also might be getting extra value here because the 49ers just played on Sunday Night Football and lost in an ugly game. Popular prime-time games typically influence the public's picks the next week.
WEEK 4 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kicker
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Point Spread: +3.5
Popularity: 16%
Category: Value gamble in weekly contests
Maybe it’s just some name-brand recognition, but the Steelers have remained popular each week with the public. Now, they're providing yet another value opportunity picking against them for the third week in a row.
Pittsburgh's defense isn't quite as dominant as it could be with star DE T.J. Watt (pec) out, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the concussion protocol. Meanwhile, the offense still has Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, and even though he was a little better in the first half against Cleveland, he's still at only 5.5 yards per attempt on the season and is rarely pushing the ball downfield.
The Jets are the underdog here, but going against a limited opponent with a struggling offense makes for an appealing upset play in certain types of pools, especially weekly prize pools when the slate is wiped clean each week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Point Spread: -2.0
Popularity: 36%
Category: Value favorite
Carolina is our third favorite this week drawing fewer than half the public picks. The majority of the public is going with Arizona on the road, but Carolina is a two-point favorite. By reputation, the public sees Arizona as the superior team, but the numbers so far do not support that position.
The Cardinals rank dead last in the NFL in net yards allowed per pass on defense, and they rank 30th on offense in net yards per pass. Carolina is also near the bottom of the league in yards on offense, but the difference is on defense, where the Panthers are in the top 10 in pass defense efficiency.
Take the favored Panthers and let the majority of your opponents pick the underdogs on the road.
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Good luck in your pools this week!
