In this post, we highlight five Week 1 picks that can help you shoot up the standings in your 2023 NFL pick 'em or confidence pools. This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in NFL and college football pick 'em contests. (Check out their Football Pick 'em Picks product.)
Week 1 features a lot of top teams playing each other, some historic rivalries, and a few big underdogs starting rookie quarterbacks. Only one team, Baltimore, is currently favored by more than seven points, and seven Week 1 games feature a point spread of three points or less.
That makes for an interesting dynamic in pick 'em pools, especially when it comes to potential upset picks. With so many relatively close games, playing the odds in the smartest way and catching a bit of luck in the swing games could give you a sizable early lead in your pool standings after Week 1.
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Week 1 NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 1 value picks
To increase your edge in football picks pools, making good predictions is only part of the battle. (It's also not particularly difficult because point spreads provide a quick and accurate assessment of each team's chance to win.)
Because you only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss, you also need to forecast pick popularity (i.e. how you expect your opponents to pick each game). Once you have an understanding of each team's win odds and expected pick popularity, two tactics should yield long-term success in football pick 'em pools:
- Look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gamble
- Avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk
The picks below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your contest opponents by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pool, you almost certainly shouldn't pick all of them (the upset picks, specifically) because it would be too risky overall, but consider this list as your starting point for good Week 1 pick ideas.
(To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick 'em pool should influence the picks you make, read our free articles about winning football pool strategy, or just use our Football Pick 'em Picks product to get pick recommendations for your pool.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
UPDATE 9/6: Since we initially published this analysis of NFL Week 1 picks last week, some key numbers relevant to pick 'em contests have changed. Staying on top of the latest data is important for maximizing your edge in football pools, so here's an update on some of the pick advice in this article.
(As always, see the Football Pick'em Picks product for the latest pick recommendations for your pool. It's free for Week 1.)
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Point Spread: -4.0
Pick Popularity: 70%
Category: Favorite at a reasonable price
With Sean Payton taking over as head coach, the Broncos will try to rebound from last year’s disaster. They start their hopeful redemption tour at home in Week 1, facing the rival Raiders, who are projected to finish last in the AFC West.
Denver has decently high pick popularity, but everything is relative. Five teams are currently favored by between 3.5 and 4.5 points in Week 1, and Denver is the least popular pick of that group. That means that pick 'em contest players are showing more of a willingness to pick the upset in this game than in other Week 1 games where the favorite has similar win odds. You can play against that bias by sticking with the favorite here.
As a side note, Denver has been really good opening the season at altitude. Since 1990, the Broncos are 16-4 straight up and 13-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 home openers.
UPDATE 9/6: The Broncos' point spread has settled downward slightly (-3.5), but their value proposition is even better now. At 65-percent pick popularity, Denver is now the least popular of all 16 Week 1 favorites, trailing seven teams favored by a field goal or less.
WEEK 1 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Point Spread: -10.0
Pick Popularity: 94%
Category: Big favorite at high confidence points
The Ravens are the only double-digit favorite in a week where most point spreads are less than seven points. However, some other teams are nearly as popular as Baltimore as pick 'em contest picks.
Unless things change by kickoff time, Week 1 doesn't feature any big value picks based on pick popularity, such as an outright favorite being picked less than half the time. In a week with slim value options, don’t overthink it and get cute with this game. There's a lot of season left and no need to take a huge risk here.
Look for your upsets elsewhere, and if you are in a confidence point pool, slot Baltimore into the top spot and try to beat your opponents at the other games.
UPDATE 9/6: The Ravens' pick popularity has gone up slightly (to 97 percent), but there are also now five other teams at 90 percent or higher popularity, including three teams favored by under five points. So, the rationale to just plug in Baltimore as your highest confidence pick is even stronger.
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New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Spread: +3.5
Pick Popularity: 23%
Category: Value gamble in weekly prize pools
The Eagles are a pretty popular pick in Week 1, especially given that they are a road favorite of just over a field goal. This point spread also has moved in New England's favor compared to where it was a week ago.
So, there’s actually some decent leverage taking the Patriots as a key upset pick in weekly prize pools if your score doesn't carry over from week to week. New England's odds of winning are only about 40 percent, but less than a quarter of pool participants are picking the Patriots.
If you're in a huge season-long pool and looking for a more calculated gamble this week, New England is also worthy of consideration.
UPDATE 9/6: Although the Patriots point spread got slightly worse at +4, their pick popularity is now even lower at only nine percent, making New England a very high-leverage upset pick if you want to take a calculated gamble.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: +2.5
Popularity: 35%
Category: Unpopular Toss-Up
The Browns have matched up pretty well with Cincinnati in recent years and are a slight home underdog against their rivals from Southern Ohio in the 2023 opener.
Our models give the Browns just under a 50/50 shot of winning this game, while the public is picking the Bengals at a closer to 2-to-1 rate. That means there's some value in picking Cleveland here if you're willing to take a bit of risk -- especially in a week with not many value picks on the board.
UPDATE: 9/6: The Browns remain a 2.5-point underdog, but they are an even less popular pick in pools as Sunday approaches, with only 20 percent of pick 'em players taking them. So, they are still a great value play in weekly prize pools or very large contests.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Week 1 NFL survivor advice
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
Point Spread: -5.0
Popularity: 77%
Category: Reasonably priced favorite in all formats
Just enough people are willing to pick the upset in this game that it makes sense to stick with the favorite. Seattle is tied for the fifth-largest point spread of the week while ranking just seventh in pick popularity.
It’s also a game to watch because the Rams really struggled down the stretch last year because of injuries to their stars, and wide receiver Cooper Kupp missed most of the preseason with a hamstring injury before suffering a "setback" a week ago. If Kupp ends up not playing, the betting line may move further in Seattle's favor and only increase the Seahawks value proposition here.
UPDATE 9/6: Cooper Kupp has been officially ruled out for the Rams in Week 1, and the point spread in this game is now up to -5.5, making the Seahawks the fourth-biggest favorite of the week. Their pick popularity has also been climbing (to 85 percent, up from 77 percent) but they are still only the seventh-most popular favorite of the week and still a relative value compared to the other Week 1 favorites with similar win odds.
Get All Our Week 1 NFL Picks
Maximizing your edge in football pick 'em contests requires a lot of data, math, and time. Besides having to collect and analyze information like win odds and pick popularity, you need to understand the optimal level of risk to take with your Week 1 picks, based on the characteristics of your pool(s). That's why PoolGenius built the Football Pick 'em Picks product.
It's the only product that provides weekly pick recommendations customized for your NFL or college football pick 'em pool, using algorithms that identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win. It also supports game-winner and point spread pools, confidence pools, Pick X pools, and pools with season and/or weekly prizes.
Try it out using the links below, and good luck in your pick 'em contest(s) in Week 1!
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