We know nothing after Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season, but that doesn't mean observers won't assume everything. The nature of the league brings incredible surprises and extreme disappointments coming out of each team's first game.
But are the takeaways as positive or negative as some think?
Here we rate the level of worthiness and accuracy of overreactions tied to Sunday's developments.
"Patrick Mahomes is real, spectacular and the new best QB of the 2017 draft class."
Level of accuracy: 70 percent
In his first real start replacing Alex Smith as the Chiefs' quarterback, Mahomes lit up a good — albeit Joey Bosa-less — Chargers pass defense. With Kansas City's defense experiencing its expected problems, the team needed every bit of Mahomes' big arm to escape Los Angeles with a 38-28 victory Sunday.
Mahomes showed off his chemistry with wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Even though Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce were kept quiet, the QB spread the ball around well and looked comfortable running when needed. There's an "it" factor involved with Mahomes. He looked as though he had been delivering big plays with ease for several seasons.
Meanwhile, the Texans' Deshaun Watson, a fellow 2017 first-rounder, struggled against Patriots while hampered by offensive line and receiving issues. The Bears' Mitchell Trubisky looked overwhelmed by the volume and the pace of Chicago's new offense against the Packers.
There's no doubt Mahomes has more raw passing talent than both Watson and Trubisky do. But under coach Andy Reid, Mahomes is working with a coach who can refine it, too.
"The AFC is a two-team race between the Patriots and Jaguars."
Level of accuracy: 40 percent
The Patriots did not pull away from the Texans, but with Tom Brady in playoff GOAT form, they won comfortably. The Jaguars needed to grind to edge the Giants, but their defense and running game (even without Leonard Fournette) piled on last year's success.
Before we fast-track the Pats and Jags to a rematch in the AFC championship game with the Chargers and Steelers stumbling, the weaker conference could see a rise of other teams. The Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals and even Broncos opened with statement victories. There were just enough imperfections from the Patriots' defense and Jaguars' offense to prevent us from feeling totally confident about where they'll be at season's end.
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"The Steelers are no longer the favorites in the AFC North."
Level of accuracy: 50 percent
Had Pittsburgh lost its game in Cleveland, this would have increased by about 20 percent. The Steelers in that case would have been in last place behind three 1-0 teams before they host the red-hot Chiefs in Week 2. But thanks to James Conner, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh survived an interception-happy performance by Ben Roethlisberger and no Le'Veon Bell.
The concern remains the defense, which took advantage of bad Browns execution early before fading late. In contrast, the Ravens showed an air of dominance, and the Bengals displayed a flair of playmaking.
The Steelers were a popular pick among teams expected to drop off in 2018. The reality of an ugly, season-opening tie creates a tougher, more uncertain road ahead.
"The Saints and Chargers have already blown SN's Super Bowl 53 pick."
Level of accuracy: 50 percent
To quote Monty Python, "Not dead yet." At least half of our prediction might be salvageable after New Orleans and Los Angeles lost high-scoring affairs with their defenses letting them down. But with Drew Brees and Philip Rivers as their quarterbacks, they won't be out of any high-scoring games.
The bigger issue is the Chargers and the fact that they can't stay healthy; the longer-term loss of Bosa would be huge. The Saints were sloppy while spotting the Buccaneers a big lead, but they cleaned things up and almost stole the game back.
The wake-up calls were jarring, but we still feel OK about the NFC side, our projected Super Bowl winner.
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"Adrian Peterson is the most dominant runner in the NFL again."
Level of accuracy: 10 percent
Peterson ran through the Cardinals' defense in a "revenge" game, ripping his 2017 team for 166 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 28 touches as a 33-year-old. He helped power Washington to a 24-6 rout as the early-down workhorse.
But Peterson also produced a couple monster games based on volume in Arizona last season. On Sunday, he averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, and his 52-yard reception was an anomaly. He wasn't even the best-looking Redskins back in the game, as Chris Thompson needed only 11 touches to post 128 yards and a score.
In Week 2, the Redskins will face a Rams run defense that was shaky last season, but the game flow is bound to fall out of Peterson's favor. All Day's Washington debut probably will be his biggest day of the season.
"The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo are no longer worth the hype."
Level of accuracy: 20 percent
The 49ers finally lost with Garoppolo as their starting QB. Go-to wide receiver Marquise Goodwin was banged up and shut down, and the offense was reeling without the dynamic threat of running back Jerick McKinnon. Garoppolo looked mediocre with three interceptions (including a pick six), three sacks and a completion percentage under 50 percent.
But this came in a brutal matchup against the Vikings' defense on the road, and somehow, the Niners lost by one score. Their pass defense looked improved with Richard Sherman leading, and their run defense was strong even without Reuben Foster. With Goodwin and Pierre Garcon not factors, they had some other young weapons emerge, too, in George Kittle and Dante Pettis.
Even in a loss, San Francisco showed it has shortened the gap between itself and the NFC's established heavyweights.
"Andrew Luck looks better than ever."
Level of accuracy: 40 percent
Working in a new offense for the first time, Luck threw an early red-zone interception. He looked like he was about to lead a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter until usually sure-handed tight end Jack Doyle's fumble resulted in a scoop-and-score for the Bengals.
Luck was mostly accurate Sunday (39-of-53, 319 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 93.2 rating) and took only two sacks despite a massive amount of dropbacks in a 34-23 loss. But this isn't the old Luck hanging in the pocket and slinging the ball downfield with a high degree of difficulty. The Colts are now focused on getting the ball out of his hands quickly and not forcing deep shots.
Luck might never regain his elite arm strength, but his smarts, accuracy and delivery are still there. Plus, he now has a coaching staff that can adjust to what he does best.
"The Browns, Bills and Cardinals all should have started their rookie QBs."
Level of accuracy: 66.6 percent
Tyrod Taylor was off in the Browns' tie against the Steelers, but Cleveland also witnessed his command of the offense, his leadership in crunch time and the strong running that earned him the starting job over No.1 overall draft pick Baker Mayfield. Meanwhile, Nathan Peterman and Sam Bradford made the Bills and Cardinals look silly for not rolling with Josh Allen and Josh Rosen, respectively.
We understand Peterman was the more impressive QB for coach Sean McDermott in the preseason. We know Bradford got a ton of money to be a stopgap QB, and Rosen might not have been as pro-ready as advertised. But those offensive performances were so embarrassing that there's no way Allen and Rosen could have done worse.
Let the kids play. Allow their development to begin for teams that aren't going anywhere this season except further down the standings.
"Aaron Rodgers already has won the 2018 MVP race."
Level of accuracy: 90 percent
The 10 percent is in case the knee injury Rodgers suffered Sunday night is more serious, or if another ailment derails his 2018 season. But really, we don't even need that cushion, do we?
The Packers stunk without Rodgers last season. They were on the brink of getting blown out without him in Week 1 until he Willis Reed-ed the Bears in the fourth quarter to turn a potential 20-3 loss into a minor miracle, 24-23 victory that might even top his Hail Mary moments of recent seasons.
Rodgers, the Vegas favorite for MVP, is more valuable to his team than any other player. If the NFL had WAR as a stat, it would be infinity squared for Rodgers. Just hold the NFL Honors in Green Bay right now. It's over.
"Khalil Mack is worth everything the Bears spent to get him."
Level of accuracy: 100 percent
Mack sees Rodgers' MVP and matches him with early buzz for another defensive player of the year nod.
Mack being paired with coordinator Vic Fangio is what Bears fans' dreams (and Raiders fans' nightmares) are made of. Chicago could have given up the Bean, Buckingham Fountain and the John Hancock Building for Mack, too, and the trade would have been worth it.
A sack, a hit, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, a recovery, a play in coverage and a TD — sounds like an average night for Mack going forward in that talented Bears front seven.
