Week 6 appeared to be a time for several heavy favorites to shine. That did not happen.
The NFL's only undefeated teams, the 49ers and Eagles, both went down, falling to the Browns and Jets, respectively. The Chiefs stayed close in their game against the Broncos. The Bills required a goal-line stop on the final play of the game to beat the Giants.
On paper, the games in Week 7 appear to have plenty more thrills. It starts with an intriguing matchup between the Jaguars and Saints, while the early afternoon window on Sunday will see matchups like the Falcons and Buccaneers and Ravens and Lions. Rams-Steelers and Chiefs-Chargers highlight the late afternoon slot before one of the most exciting games of the season, with the Dolphins heading to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.
Each week, Sporting News' model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team's quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team's win probability. We've also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model's odds with those from BetMGM, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week's games.
Here's how the model sees Week 7 shaping up.
MORE: Sign up for BetMGM to make your NFL Week 7 picks
NFL picks, predictions Week 7
Saints (-1) vs. Jaguars
Win probability: 54.8%, Saints
The Saints disappointed against the Texans, but after a two-week road trip, they head back to New Orleans to host the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offense appears to have woken up after a streaky start to the season. The Saints' defense has what it takes to slow down Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, with the biggest question being whether Derek Carr and the offense can get going. Both BetMGM agree New Orleans should be a 1-point favorite.
Raiders (-3) vs. Bears
Win probability: 59.4%, Raiders
The spread on this game would be closer if Justin Fields were under center for the Bears. Tyson Bagent, however, is a different story. Las Vegas' offense hasn't been anything special, but its defense has held opponents to fewer than 20 points in three of its six games. Chicago is a 3-point underdog by both BetMGM and the model, and it's certainly fair to assume even at home, Bagent and the Bears will have issues against Las Vegas.
Browns (-5) vs. Colts
Win probability: 66.7%, Browns
The Browns are fresh off a stunning victory against the 49ers, and now hit the road to face the Colts, who were demolished in Jacksonville with Gardner Minshew under center. For now, there is still uncertainty whether it will be P.J. Walker or Deshaun Watson starting at quarterback for Cleveland, but regardless of the quarterback, the Browns should be heavy favorites against Indianapolis. The model has a bit more confidence in Cleveland, putting them as a 5-point favorite, while BetMGM has the Browns as just 2.5-point favorites.
Bills (-11) vs. Patriots
Win probability: 82.7%, Bills
The Bills were lucky to escape their "Sunday Night Football" game with the Giants with the win, surviving a late drive by New York. Heading into Foxborough, they should be well poised for a bounceback effort. Buffalo ranks third in both points scored and points allowed, while the Patriots rank second-to-last in scoring and in the bottom 10 in defense. Bill Belichick has had Buffalo's number in his career, but this feels like a mismatch, with the model favoring the Bills by 11 and BetMGM having them as 8.5-point favorites.
Commanders (-2) vs. Giants
Win probability: 55.5%, Commanders
Maybe with Daniel Jones at quarterback, the Giants would have better odds. Maybe. Tyrod Taylor led New York to just nine points against the Bills, while Sam Howell appears to be finding his footing in Washington a bit more. Washington's defense has been gashed for much of the season, but if it can build on the 16-point effort against the Falcons, it could capitalize on a cold Giants offense. BetMGM (2.5) has the Commanders favored by a half-point more than the model (2).
Ravens (PK) vs. Lions
Win probability: 50.6%, Ravens
This has all the makings of a thrilling clash. Ben Johnson's Detroit offense vs. Mike Macdonald's Ravens defense. Jared Goff vs. Lamar Jackson. The Ravens bounced back from a loss to the Steelers with a London win against the Titans, but they will face a steeper challenge against the red-hot Lions, who have won four straight heading into Sunday. The model has this game as a virtual toss-up, giving only a slight edge to the Ravens, while BetMGM gives Baltimore a 3-point edge.
Buccaneers (PK) vs. Falcons
Win probability: 51.8%, Buccaneers
It's fair to say both these NFC South teams are looking for a rebound. The Buccaneers were shut down by the Lions, while the Falcons turned the ball over three times as Desmond Ridder's struggles under center continued. This matchup has all the makings of a defensive matchup between a pair of solid units. The difference-maker in this close contest is home field, hence Tampa Bay's advantage with the model giving the slight percentage odds in a pick 'em. BetMGM is favoring Atlanta by 2.5-points.
Rams (-3) vs. Steelers
Win probability: 60.5%, Rams
The Rams have quietly been one of the NFL's most complete teams, ranking in the NFL's top 12 in both points scored and points against. They've lost by no more than nine points in a game this season, and are coming off a 17-point win over the Cardinals. Pittsburgh should be well rested before heading out west, but that offense has not seemed to have any answers so far in 2023, even while its defense has been excellent. The model and BetMGM both agree the Rams should be 3-point favorites over Pittsburgh.
Seahawks (-14) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 88.1%, Seahawks
Seattle was bottled up in the red zone four times against the Bengals in a disappointing Week 6 loss. The Seahawks get a get-well game coming up with a home game against the hapless Cardinals, who have now lost by at least two touchdowns in three straight games after a stunning win over the Cowboys. BetMGM is giving Arizona considerably more of a chance than the model, with the bookmaker saying the Seahawks should be only 7.5-point favorites while the model has Seattle as a 14-point favorite.
Broncos (PK) vs. Packers
Win probability: 51.4%, Broncos
This is one of the more intriguing lines of the weak. The Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL by points allowed, and the offense scored just eight points a week ago against the Chiefs. The Packers, however, are coming off a bye after losing three of their past four games where the offense has gone cold after a big season-opening win. On a neutral field, the model is taking the Packers, but with the game in Denver, it is calling the game a pick 'em, with a slight lean toward the Broncos. BetMGM is going the other direction, with the Packers listed as 1-point favorites.
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers
Win probability: 78.3%, Chiefs
The Chiefs and Chargers have delivered some classics between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Last season, Kansas City swept the season series for the first time in the same year since Herbert arrived in the NFL. Los Angeles has one fewer day of rest, and has been a bit streaky this season, having won games against the Vikings and Raiders, but lost to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys. Kansas City hasn't been as sharp as it's been in recent years, but no one will complain too much on a five-game winning streak. The model is giving the Chiefs the 9-point advantage at home, while BetMGM gives the Chiefs a 5.5-point edge.
Eagles (-3) vs. Dolphins
Win probability: 61.7%, Eagles
This one ought to be exciting. The Eagles are looking to bounce back after a losing effort to the Jets. The Dolphins are looking to keep the league's best offense humming. Miami will face the best defense it has seen all season outside of Buffalo, a game in which it lost 48-20, and the contest will be on the road. The model and BetMGM are similar in seeing the Dolphins as field-goal underdogs, though BetMGM has the spread at 2.5 rather than 3.
49ers (-9) vs. Vikings
Win probability: 77.7%, 49ers
San Francisco's undefeated season went by the wayside in a rainy trip to Cleveland last weekend, but it will have a chance to bounce back quickly. The 49ers face a Vikings team missing Justin Jefferson and that just barely came out ahead of the Bears, who lost Fields to injury early. Even in Minnesota, this game feels lopsided. The 49ers are 9-point favorites in the eyes of the model, while BetMGM has San Francisco as 6.5-point favorites.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Bills | 11-6 | 50.1% | 38.9% | 89.0% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 8.3% |
| Dolphins | 11-6 | 44.3% | 41.3% | 85.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| Jets | 8-9 | 5.6% | 22.3% | 27.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Patriots | 4-13 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Ravens | 11-6 | 50.3% | 30.1% | 80.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 21.7% | 33.7% | 55.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Bengals | 9-8 | 15.8% | 30.3% | 46.0% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Steelers | 9-8 | 12.3% | 26.3% | 38.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
AFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 11-6 | 73.4% | 7.7% | 81.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Colts | 8-9 | 7.1% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Titans | 7-10 | 9.7% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Texans | 8-9 | 9.9% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 13-4 | 95.3% | 3.6% | 98.9% | 64.4% | 49.0% | 24.6% |
| Chargers | 8-9 | 3.6% | 27.3% | 30.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Raiders | 7-10 | 1.2% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Broncos | 5-12 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 12-5 | 66.5% | 31.1% | 97.6% | 22.0% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Cowboys | 11-6 | 33.1% | 58.1% | 91.1% | 7.0% | 11.7% | 5.6% |
| Commanders | 6-11 | 0.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Giants | 5-12 | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 12-5 | 91.5% | 6.1% | 97.6% | 20.3% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Vikings | 7-10 | 4.9% | 22.8% | 27.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Packers | 7-10 | 3.3% | 21.9% | 25.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bears | 5-12 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Saints | 10-7 | 61.5% | 15.8% | 77.3% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Buccaneers | 7-10 | 13.3% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Falcons | 8-9 | 24.9% | 20.3% | 45.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Panthers | 4-13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 13-4 | 92.7% | 6.8% | 99.4% | 48.4% | 43.6% | 25.5% |
| Seahawks | 9-8 | 6.0% | 54.9% | 60.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Rams | 8-9 | 1.4% | 34.0% | 35.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Cardinals | 3-14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
