The countdown is finally over -- it's officially game week. The 2023 NFL season commences on Thursday night with the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs (-4.5) facing the upstart Lions in what's likely an action-packed appetizer for the other 15 games of the Week 1 slate. For those looking for the updated Week 1 betting odds, spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, we have you covered.
Following Thursday night's kickoff game, the rest of Sunday's Week 1 slate features several must-watch matchups that could go either way (Steelers vs. 49ers, Bears vs. Packers, Eagles vs. Patriots, Chargers vs. Dolphins, etc.). Then on Monday, Week 1 concludes with an AFC East battle between Aaron Rodgers and the Jets and Josh Allen and the Bills in a game that will garner plenty of betting action.
Below, we'll look at the latest odds for Week 1 from BetMGM and offer up a few early bets to consider. Keep in mind these lines will move throughout the week as we get updates on the playing status of key starters and betting limits increase.
WEEK 1 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictions
NFL odds Week 1
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click HERE to sign up!
| Game | Spread |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions | KC -4.5 (-110) |
| Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers | ATL -3.5 (-110) |
| Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans | BAL -10 (-110) |
| Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals | CLE +2.5 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | IND +5 (-110) |
| Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIN -6 (-110) |
| New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans | NO -3 (-115) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers | PIT +2.5 (-110) |
| Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals | WAS -7 (-110) |
| Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers | CHI -1 (-110) |
| New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles | NE +4 (-110) |
| Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders | DEN -3.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins | LAC -3 (-110) |
| Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams | SEA -5.5 (-110) |
| New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys | NYG +3 (-105) |
| New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills | NYJ +2.5 (-110) |
NFL moneylines Week 1
| Game | Moneyline |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions | KC -225 | DET +180 |
| Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers | ATL -185 | CAR +150 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans | BAL -500 | HOU +375 |
| Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals | CIN -135 | CLE +115 |
| Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX -225 | IND +185 |
| Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MIN -250 | TB +200 |
| New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans | NO -175 | TEN +145 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers | SF -130 | PIT +110 |
| Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals | WAS -300 | ARI +240 |
| Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers | CHI -120 | GB +100 |
| New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles | PHI -190 | NE +155 |
| Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders | DEN -190 | LV +155 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins | LAC -160 | MIA +135 |
| Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams | SEA -250 | LAR +200 |
| New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys | DAL -175 | NYG +145 |
| New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills | BUF -140 | NYJ +115 |
NFL over/unders Week 1
| Game | Over/Under |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions | 53.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers | 39.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans | 43.5 |
| Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals | 48 |
| Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 45.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45.5 |
| New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans | 41.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers | 41 |
| Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals | 38 |
| Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers | 42 |
| New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles | 45 |
| Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders | 44 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins | 51 |
| Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams | 46 |
| New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys | 46.5 |
| New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills | 46.5 |
NFL best bets for Week 1
*Odds and analysis as of Monday 9/4*
Broncos -3.5 (-110) vs. Raiders
Despite Russell Wilson having an uncharacteristic down season in his first year as a Bronco, resulting in Denver going a lackluster 7-10 ATS in 2022, we're backing the Broncos to notch at least a four-point victory in game one of the Sean Payton era. While we think the Broncos put together a more competent 2023 campaign, this is more of a fade of the Raiders. We don't think the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Raiders will generate enough scoring drives against a steady Broncos defense.
Denver's pass defense ended '22 posting the fifth-lowest dropback EPA (-0.032), so we don't think Garoppolo has much success through the air in his Raiders' debut. Denver's defensive weakness last season was their inability to get to the QB, posting the seventh-worst pressure rate (18.5%), but luckily for them, Garoppolo wasn't all that successful as a passer even in a clean pocket. Jimmy G complied a subpar 69.7 clean pocket completion percentage in '22, just the 20th-best mark among qualifying QBs. Even if Denver doesn't pressure him at a high clip, we don't think Garoppolo will consistently move the sticks through the air.
Steelers moneyline (+120) vs. 49ers
It's never easy betting against the 49ers, but we're doing just that in Week 1. We expect a relatively strong season from Steelers' QB Kenny Pickett in his first full season as QB1 and feel the Steelers are undervalued in the betting market as a whole. As a result, this game should be priced closer to a pick 'em (-110 juice on both moneylines), but we understand why the 49ers sit as slight road favorites after being one win away from a trip to the Super Bowl.
However, we think the Steelers will not only compete for a wild card in 2023 but have a real shot to win the competitive AFC North. Yes, the 49ers are elite at generating natural pressure by rushing just four, but even if Pickett's under duress, he has a knack for making positive plays under pressure, recording the sixth-best pressured completion percentage in his rookie year. In a game we feel is 50-50, give us the team priced with an implied win probability of 45.45 percent.
Bengals -2.5 (-110) at Browns
We know, we know, Joe Burrow has a 1-4 record in his career against the Browns. Cincinnati's last trip to Cleveland, a lackluster 32-12 loss on Halloween last season, is ingrained in our minds. However, Burrow didn't have Ja'Marr Chase in that one, and Jacoby Brissett was Cleveland's QB1. Despite suffering a preseason calf strain, we expect Burrow to be on the field this Sunday, and although he didn't take one snap this preseason, he's gotten used to missing the exhibition season in his short career.
Until he shows it, we're skeptical of Watson's effectiveness after a rocky end to 2022. In terms of their efficiency, relative to their expected points added last season, Brissett (+77.0 EPA, 15th among QBs) was significantly more effective under center than Watson (-9.3 EPA, 67th). Yes, Brissett took more snaps to rack up a higher EPA, but Watson didn't look right even in limited action. Back Burrow and the Bengals to win Sunday's rendition of the Battle of Ohio.
