Here’s are a pair of potential upsets for the NFL’s Week 5 card:
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Following a 45-14 thrashing of Washington last week, New York will be looking for its third straight win. Atlanta’s high-octane offense speaks for itself, but the same doesn’t go for its No. 29 ranked defense. Multiple Vegas sports books have the Falcons as +185 underdogs, implying just a 35 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore data leans much more heavily toward the visiting team than does Vegas. AccuScore simulations indicate the Falcons have a nearly 48 percent chance of beating the Giants on Sunday, which translates into +110 odds. That makes Atlanta +185 a very attractive play.
The Falcons covering a +4.5 spread is an AccuScore two-star (out of four) hot trend this week.
For Atlanta, the variable in simulations with the most impact is running back Steven Jackson. He’s averaging 46 rushing yards per simulated game. If he posts better than average rushing yards and at least one rushing touchdown – which has a 20 percent chance of occurring – Atlanta's winning probability jumps up to 71 percent. The Giants rushing defense ranks 15th in the league.
With an average simulated score this close (24-23), turnovers become extra crucial. The Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 38 percent of simulations and win a majority of those games. While Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan will look to dominate the game in the air, the perfect combo for Atlanta this week will be a turnover-free performance led by Jackson’s ground attack.
Supporting trend: Atlanta is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 games.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
MGM Resorts lists the Kansas City Chiefs as +240 underdogs as they head to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara to match up against the San Francisco 49ers. While those odds imply K.C. has about a 29 percent chance of winning, AccuScore has that up at 44 percent.
Based on AccuScore projections, K.C. should be offered at about +127 on the money-line, making the +240 look like the steal of the week.
Please check other game predictions on AccuScore.
Fantasy football: Pick a fantasy football team this week for a shot to win $1,000,000 with DraftKings.