It's that time of year in the NFL; time to see who put the "way too early" in the way-too-early mock draft tradition. Trying to guess how the draft will play out a year in advance, literally within days of the last draft ending, is too irresistible for so many in the business. The harsh lessons taught by doing it come quickly.
This year, though, one prognosticator deserves special praise — and it’s a colleague here at Sporting News. Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting does mock drafts for this site, and his way-too-early picks have been held up to the same scrutiny as the others here. But on several fronts, Galko nailed it in May 2017. More on that later.
First things first. Sporting News and six other sites were evaluated for their predictions for 2018 within days of the end of the 2017 draft: ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, USA Today and Fox Sports. Just like last year, they unanimously whiffed on a prominent name at a marquee position. In 2016, no early mock draft had quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in the first round, and a year later, he went second overall.
This year? None other than first overall pick Baker Mayfield, who did not appear in a single one of the aforementioned too-early mocks. Not that he didn't appear at No. 1. He never appeared at all.
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Everybody called this as a quarterback-heavy draft, and all seven had Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Josh Allen going in the top 10. They were all correct.
Mayfield, though, the eventual Heisman Trophy winner, was invisible. Ironically, he had appeared in a handful of 2016 post-draft predictions about 2017, as an early-entry possibility. Whatever confidence predictors had in him then was gone a year later.
With all that said, though, a hand for Galko.
Five mocks predicted Darnold as the No. 1 pick (which, of course, he wasn't). Three called for him to go to the Jets, where he did land. SN was one of them.
Galko was the only one to call Saquon Barkley in his exact spot, at second overall. He also was one of two to get Bradley Chubb at fifth overall. He called cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Dolphins at 12th overall — and the Dolphins took him, at 11th overall.
And only two of them saw the then-reigning Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Lamar Jackson, being taken in the first round. Guess who was one of them. Galko predicted him 18th to the Cardinals (who did end up drafting a quarterback). NBC Sports also called first round for Jackson.
It’s enough to make someone swear off of mocking the mock-drafters.
Not completely, though. His choice for the 10th overall pick was Oklahoma tackle Orlando Brown, he of the epically bad Combine, which helped him plunge to the third round, 83rd overall.
NFL DRAFT GRADES:
SN's winners, losers of 2018 draft
Here are other highlights of the good, bad and misguided from a year ago.
— The other first-round pick missing from the too-early mock drafts, not surprisingly, was Denzel Ward, who was taken fourth by the Browns. Only Bleacher Report had him going in the first round, at No. 25.
— Two running backs appeared all over the mocks from last year but not in the actual first round this year: LSU’s Derrius Guice (six of seven mocks) and Alabama’s Bo Scarbrough (five). Guice, whose stock dropped off of reports of "off-field" issues, went in the third round to Washington. Scarbrough sank to the seventh, to the Cowboys.
— These quarterbacks got more love from early mock-drafters than did Mayfield: Mason Rudolph (named in three mock drafts, taken in the third round by the Steelers), Jarrett Stidham (named in two, returned to Auburn) and Luke Falk (one, taken in the sixth by the Titans).
— Two drafts had the Jets taking a quarterback third overall, but it was Rosen, because Darnold was already gone.
— Fox Sports had the Bills taking a quarterback seventh, but it was Rosen, not Allen. NBC Sports had Allen going seventh, but to the Jaguars.
— Clemson defensive lineman Christian Wilkins was a popular first-round pick, including Bleacher Report’s choice at No. 1. Despite a tremendous junior season, Wilkins returned to school for one more year.
— Six mocks had LSU’s Arden Key as a top-10 pick, with USA Today locking him in at first overall. Between leaving the team over personal issues and dealing with injuries all season, he lasted until the Raiders got him in the third round. Key went 86 picks behind the quarterback who wasn't in anyone’s mock draft at all.
