What happened during NFL free agency once again will have a huge effect on what teams will do in the first round of NFL Draft in 2023. There were several significant signings and a few key trades that changed many offseason plans.
As usual, teams weighed the value and depth of talent in certain positions vs. the draft vs. the free agents available to become the most efficient with their personnel moves.
Considering what positional holes were filled with short- and long-term starters, here are updated projections for the top 31 selections on April 27:
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NFL mock draft 2023
1. Carolina Panthers (from Bears)
- C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (6-3, 214 pounds)
The Panthers answered the question of who was most aggressive to trade up to take their franchise quarterback of choice with the top pick. Now continues the speculation on which QB they covet most between Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young and Florida's Combine star, Anthony Richardson. Stroud's polished pocket passing would seem to make the most sense for Frank Reich and Thomas Brown. Richardson, not Young, because of his massive upside, feels like the other direction vs. Stroud.
TRADE GRADES: Bears steal D.J. Moore; Panthers go for broke
2. Houston Texans
- Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (5-10, 204 pounds)
The Texans should now have a no-brainer pick based on what the Panthers do. They could think about Richardson's upside here but, should Stroud come off the board, Young's intangibles, leadership, pedigree on top of arm and athleticism gives him more can't-miss qualities than Richardson and Will Levis.
3. Arizona Cardinals
- Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama (6-3, 253 pounds)
If Arizona keeps the pick, it should go with the safest, most disruptive defensive player on the board. That's Anderson now instead of Jalen Carter, whose off-field concerns that kept him out of key time at the Combine and Georgia's pro day should be off-putting to many teams in the first round. Anderson proved again why he was so explosive and productive at the highest level in college.
MORE: Grading NFL free agency moves for all 32 teams from best (Bears) to worst (Packers)
4. Indianapolis Colts
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (6-4, 244 pounds)
New offensive-minded coach Shane Steichen has hinted he's looking for a dynamic dual threat he could mold into a franchise QB, fresh off working with Jalen Hurts (6-1, 223 pounds) in Philadelphia. Richardson's off-the-charts athleticism and natural monster arm should do nicely. Assuming they don't trade for Lamar Jackson, this move can help the Colts break free from their cycle of recycled veteran pocket passers.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Broncos)
- Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (6-6, 275 pounds)
The Seahawks should think about the best defensive players available to raise their pass-rush pop above all else with two first-rounders. It's getting hard to keep Wilson, with his massive frame and wingspan that were confirmed at the Combine, out of the top five. He uses his athleticism efficiently to produce as an intimidating sack artist.
6. Detroit Lions (from Rams)
- Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (6-3, 229 pounds)
The Lions should be on high alert to take a QB with a higher ceiling than Jared Goff given how everything else is coming together for their loaded offense with Levis' cannon being the key calling card. Detroit could think about moving on from Goff soon and push to win big with a QB on a rookie contract.
MORE: Biggest winners & losers from 2023 free agency
7. Las Vegas Raiders
- Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (6-1, 197 pounds)
The Raiders should think more about immediate impact defender in the Sauce Gardner mold early after doing a lot of good offensive work in NFL free agency for Josh McDaniels. Gonzalez went gangbusters at the Combine to confirm his status as the top corner in the class. He has great athletic pedigree and made sure to remind everyone about his playing speed and quickness for such a big cover man.
8. Atlanta Falcons
- Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson (6-5, 268 pounds)
The Falcons could think about other defensive positions, but they should think pass rush most even if Anderson and Wilson are not available. Murphy also provides a classic combination of size, speed and quickness.
MORE: Bears fans thank Lovie Smith for trade haul from Panthers
9. Chicago Bears (from Panthers)
- Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (6-4, 313 pounds)
The Bears might have an easy choice here should the edge rush options not be as tempting. They can simply look up the road to Evanston to provide Justin Fields with a major pass protection upgrade after already getting him a new No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore. Skoronski, who had a great Combine from his running through his smooth positional drills, can deliver as their immediate starting left tackle with his smooth quickness and athleticism on the edge.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from Saints)
- Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (6-3, 314 pounds)
The Eagles should be willing to take a chance on the sliding Carter to pair with Jordan Davis, the beefy Georgia defensive tackle they took in the first round in 2022. Carter, even without a Combine or Pro Day workout, has done plenty during his career to show his high upside as a dominant disruptor in the Aaron Donald mode. The Eagles have a contingency ahead of him in the short term with Fletcher Cox re-signed.
11. Tennessee Titans
- Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU (6-4, 215 pounds)
The Titans need to think about going wideout again in the first round to help promising second-year player Treylon Burks. Johnston didn't run the 40 at the Combine but his speed and vertical presence is pretty evident on film as the former Horned Frogs big playmaker and he made quick impressive work of the positional pass-catching drills.
12. Houston Texans (from Browns)
- Jordan Addison, WR, USC (6-0, 175 pounds)
The Texans need to pair a dynamic pass-catcher with their new franchise QB, in this case Stroud. Addison opened the door for others to be the first wide receiver drafted after measuring a little shorter and running a little slower than expected at the Combine, but specific to what Houston needs, he has a nice blend of field-stretching speed and after-the-catch quickness to quickly develop into the go-to guy.
13. New York Jets
- Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State (6-6, 313 pounds)
Johnson is a powerful and explosive athlete to the point he can start anywhere except center in the NFL. The Jets, outside of left guard Laken Tomlinson and new center Wes Schweitzer, have had some major injury issues on the offensive line, especially to promising first-rounders Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. They also can't count on the durability of Duane Brown during his Age 38 season. Johnson would be high-upside insurance at first before taking over for Brown at tackle opposite Becton.
14. New England Patriots
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Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (6-2, 198 pounds)
Porter checked in taller than expected at the Combine after Gonzalez blazed to the top of the board at the position, Porter has similar size-speed-quickness qualities to be a No. 1 cover corner. The Patriots will love what he can do for Bill Belichick as the son of a former star Steelers edge rusher.
15. Green Bay Packers
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Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (6-5, 249 pounds)
Mayer didn't run the fastest and didn't blow anyone away with his capped athleticism in the agility drills in the Combine, but he made his mark as a complete, classic in-line player for the position in the gauntlet and other pass-catching testing. The Packers need an impact tight end for Jordan Love with Robert Tonyan leaving for the Bears in free agency and Marcedes Lewis set to not return.
16. Washington Commanders
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Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (6-0, 181 pounds)
Witherspoon, continuing the agility and size combination theme for corners at the Combine, positioned himself to be a top-half pick with Cam Smith and Kelee Ringo slipping on boards in relation. The Commanders need to lock into the best corner available after their disaster on the back end with William Jackson Jr., Kendall Fuller and others last season.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (6-4, 310 pounds)
Jones showed outstanding speed and quickness with the agility work Combine to confirm his status and no lesser than the third tackle on the board behind Skoronski and Johnson. He's a no-brainer piece for the Steelers as a massive upgrade in pass protection for 2022 first-round QB Kenny Pickett.
18. Detroit Lions
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Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (6-4, 246 pounds)
Kincaid didn't work out at the Combine because of a minor back injury but the fact Mayer disappointed with his athleticism helped Kincaid stand out more for his skill set as a smooth, potential game-breaking receiver. The Lions should think about him as a strong receiving-first replacement for T.J. Hockenson.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (5-11, 215 pounds)
The Buccaneers are moving on from Leonard Fournette and between Chase Edmonds and Rachaad White, they might have a couple of complementary back with receiving leans. But new offensive coordinator Dave Canales comes from Seattle, where Kenneth Walker III just had a massive impact. Robinson is a terrific power back who has special three-down skills.
MORE: Why Bijan Robinson is poised to show he's Texas' next great NFL running back
20. Seattle Seahawks
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Drew Sanders, LB/S, Arkansas (6-4, 235 pounds)
The Seahawks love this type of linebacker for Pete Carroll. Sanders is a great upfield player with his rare combination of flying around to tackle vs. the run and rushing the passer. He should be busy to boost their production over Jamal Adams and Devin Bush.
21. Miami Dolphins (pick forfeited)
22. Los Angeles Chargers
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Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (6-2, 238 pounds)
The Chargers need to rev up their pass rush behind Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack with a dynamic chess piece. Smith boosted his stock back into the first round by crushing the Combine with great speed while back healthy, showing his potential freak-like production as a situational playmaker at first.
23. Baltimore Ravens
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Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina (6-1, 180 pounds)
The rise of the other corners at the Combine means the Ravens can benefit by getting Smith, the former consensus No. 1 prospect at the position. Smith did look pretty smooth in the positional drills to think he will be a solid plug-and-playmaking starter replacing free agent Marcus Peters.
24. Minnesota Vikings
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (6-1, 195 pounds)
With the team releasing Adam Thielen, it needs a new fresh-legged threat to play off Justin Jefferson. Smith-Njigba would be a great No. 1-like No. 2, as he proved in college when healthy he can take over games with his speed, quickness and route-running.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia (6-2, 207 pounds)
The Jaguars need to upgrade their coverage after moving on from Shaquill Griffin opposite Tyson Campbell. Ringo provides nice size and athleticism along with physicality to help them being more aggressive to make more plays on the ball.
26. New York Giants
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Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama (6-0, 190 pounds)
The Giants need some inside versatility in coverage for their secondary with Julian Love leaving in free agency. Branch can work nicely alongside fellow former Alabama player Xavier McKinney and become a real force vs. the slot.
27. Dallas Cowboys
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Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa (6-5, 272 pounds)
Don't be surprised if Jerry Jones and the rest of the Cowboys' scouting personnel gets enamored with Van Ness' combination of explosiveness and relentless to give DeMarcus Lawerence and Micah Parsons some much needed supporting pass-rush juice.
MORE: Biggest winners, losers from the 2023 NFL Combine
28. Buffalo Bills
- O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida (6-5, 330 pounds)
Getting former Cowboy Connor McGovern isn't enough to upgrade the power interior run blocking. The Bills need to restore some nastiness up front for James Cook and new signee Damien Harris. Torrence can provide just that.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
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Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M (6-3, 188 pounds)
The Bengals may have the clear position address to early with former starters Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell leaving in free agency. Johnson is an ace making plays in coverage and also holds up well cleaning up against the run.
30. New Orleans Saints (from 49ers through Broncos)
- Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson (6-6, 298 pounds)
Bresee showed great strength and quickness at the Combine to make sure he's not getting out of the first round as a relentless and versatile disruptor. The Saints need to address his position with Devid Onyemata and Shy Tuttle leaving to division rivals as free agents.
31. Philadelphia Eagles
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (5-9, 199 pounds)
The Eagles can't go into the season trusting oft-injured former Seahawk Rashaad Penny as a reliable lead back to replace Miles Sanders and should just make this worthy luxury pick, putting Bama's latest star back with Jalen Hurts. Gibbs blazed to a 4.36 40-yard dash at the Combine and also showed tremendous receiving skills on top of being a compact power back capable of holding up for three downs in the Frank Gore vein.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
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Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (6-4, 315 pounds)
Harrison ran the 40 well at the Combine with a solid 10-yard split of 1.77 to back up his outstanding measurements, which included a 31 1/4-inch wingspan and 9 1/4-inch hands. That should be appealing to the Chiefs, who need to think about him to start opposite Jawaan Taylor at right tackle as they work to replace both Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wyile.
