Jay Gruden was the first NFL head coach to be fired this season but he won't likely be the last. Gruden's firing after an 0-5 start with the Redskins wasn't surprising and now we wonder who could be joining him on the unemployment line? Freddie Kitchens, Adam Gase and Dan Quinn are all hanging on for dear life. Can they save their jobs for at least a few more weeks? Their teams beating the NFL odds on Sunday would help their case.
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Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been a mess for years but they were supposed to be playoff contenders this season and many liked their +140 preseason NFL odds to win the AFC North. This team has many stars on offense and head coach Freddie Kitchens was expected to make them a deadly unit but so far they've struggled at both ends of the field and they're just 2-6, including last week's disappointing 24-19 loss against a Broncos team led by quarterback Brandon Allen, who was making his first NFL start.
Kitchens' bad decisions have cost the Browns. He has been his own worst enemy, here are some examples:
Calling a draw play on a 4th and 9 when the Browns were trying to tie the score in the Sunday Night Football game against the Rams on September 22. The result was a handoff to Nick Chubb, who gained only two yards. The Browns gave the ball back to the Rams and eventually lost 20–13.
The Browns had a chance to tie the game later and at 1st and goal at the Rams 4-yard line with 43 seconds to play and with three timeouts, Baker Mayfield threw the ball four straight times and was intercepted in the last one, which secured the loss.
Kitchens made another strange 4th down decision in the 27-13 loss against the Patriots on October 27. Trailing 27-10 with just over six minutes to play, the Browns were on 4th and 11 at their own 24-yard line and he sent the punt unit but KhaDarel Hodge committed a false start, sending the Browns to their 19. Punting would have been the logical decision but Kitchens sent his offense back to the field and Baker Mayfield was sacked.
How can the Browns be 2.5-point home favorites against the Bills? The Bills are 6-2, including 3-0 on the road (3-0 against the spread away from home) while the Browns are just 2-6, including 0-3 at home. The Browns opened as a 3-point home favorite in this game mostly due to public perception. They have played a much tougher schedule than the Bills, with their six losses coming against teams that are 35-17 combined, including the 8-0 49ers, the 8-1 Patriots and the 7-2 Seahawks.
Strength of schedule and home field explains this line and let's be honest, the Bills haven't really played anybody, their six wins came against opponents with a combined record of 9-42. Four of their wins were against the 0-8 Bengals, the 1-8 Redskins, the 1-7 Dolphins and the 1-7 Jets.
The Bills have struggled to stop the run recently and the Browns can win on Sunday if Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a big game. Chubb is averaging 100.4 rushing yards per game and he has six touchdowns in eight contests while Hunt (824 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 181 carries in 11 games with the Chiefs last year) is expected to make his season debut and he can be a dangerous threat in this game. I’m not sure if I want to add the Browns to my NFL picks this week though.
Adam Gase, New York Jets
Adam Gase was expected to help the Jets improve this season but this team is actually worse under him. The Jets signed Le'Veon Bell to a four-year, $52.5 million deal in the offseason but some reports stated that Gase didn't want to bring him in.
Whether Gase agreed with Bell's signing or not, he has to rely on him in order to save his job for a few more weeks.
The Jets are just 1-7, coming off a poor effort in a 26-18 loss against the then 0-7 Dolphins and Gase's future is in jeopardy. A loss against the 2-7 Giants on Sunday could lead to his firing. Can we trust in Gase to have the Jets come out fired up to this battle of New York? Should the Jets be considered for our NFL picks as 2.5-point home underdogs?
Le'Veon Bell has to have a more prominent role in the offense, he is a versatile dual-threat running back but he has just 657 rushing yards and one touchdown on 125 carries in eight games this season, in part because he was given over 15 attempts in just four of those games (three in the first three weeks of the season).
With Sam Darnold struggling, Bell can take some pressure off the second-year quarterback. Having a successful running game can be Darnold's best friend and it can help Gase make a case to keep his job. The Giants are 25th in the NFL, giving up 127.9 rushing yards per game, including 129.0 in their last three contests and 149.0 in five games at MetLife Stadium, so involving Bell in the offense more would be a smart move by Gase.
Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons
On paper, the Falcons had a high-powered offense led by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu (who was recently traded to the Patriots) and Devonta Freeman, along with an improving, healthier defense but they're just 1-7 after six straight losses.
The Falcons just had their bye week and owner Arthur Blank reportedly met with some front-office executives to discuss what's next for this team moving forward. That meeting obviously addressed Dan Quinn's future and he could be out of a job if the Saints (14-point home favorites on the NFL odds board) destroy them on Sunday.
Quinn has been Atlanta's head coach since 2015 and he's 37-35 so far, leading the team to a pair of playoff appearances, including Super Bowl LI, where they blew a 28-3 lead against the Patriots and lost 34-28 in overtime.
Atlanta has to treat their next eight games as a brand-new season. Coming off a much-needed bye week should help but they have to visit a red-hot New Orleans team that has won six straight games. Also, star running back Alvin Kamara is expected to come back after missing the last two weeks with knee and ankle injuries. Can the Falcons be competitive and cover this large spread? If the Falcons want to keep up with the Saints, they have to improve their red zone execution.
The Falcons are a dangerous 1-7 team, their defense is terrible but they lead the NFL with 316.8 passing yards per game and a healthy and rested Matt Ryan can at least keep them in this game. Keep an eye on the Julio Jones versus Marshon Lattimore matchup. The Falcons need Jones at his best against Lattimore if they want to have a chance on Sunday and help save Quinn's job. I like Atlanta +14 as one of my NFL picks for Week 10.