The NFL's official league year for 2016 begins March 9, which means NFL executives are gnashing their teeth as they ponder the moves they have to make.
Quarterback, as always, is priority No. 1. If you have a great one, as most of 2015’s final eight playoff teams do, you can breathe easier and address other needs. But if you don't have an elite quarterback, you'd better get one.
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This offseason will be fascinating in terms of quarterback situations. How much will the Colts pay Andrew Luck? Will Kirk Cousins get a long-term commitment from Washington? What should the Eagles do with Sam Bradford? Is Colin Kaepernick the answer for new coach Chip Kelly and the 49ers?
Do the Rams keep Nick Foles, or do they need a splashier quarterback to excite their new market? Is it time for the Cowboys to find a quality backup for Tony Romo? Do the Jets believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick? Where will RGIII land?
Even the Super Bowl champions have a major question mark at QB. Denver’s situation, of course, starts with Peyton Manning, who should retire on the heels of his second title.
Broncos GM John Elway loves Manning and what he has done over the last four seasons, but not enough to pay the 39-year-old another $15 million. Given Manning’s injury concerns, diminished arm strength and lack of desire to start over with a new team, he should leave the game as a champion (and one of the greatest ever) before the March 9 deadline, when his 2016 salary of $19 million would be guaranteed.
Elway and coach Gary Kubiak then can turn their full attention to Brock Osweiler, if they haven't already.
A GM and coach must make objective decisions based on facts and future projections. The facts: Osweiler was a backup (only 30 pass attempts and no starts in his first three seasons) until Manning's foot injury pushed him to the sidelines. Osweiler's stats were OK. He completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,967 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. His passer rating of 86.4 ranked 25th among starters.
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Osweiler threw for 270 yards in an overtime win over New England, but he showed a lack of mobility in a loss to Oakland. He won five games as a starter, but the fifth win should be credited to Manning, who came off the bench to rally Denver to a win over San Diego in the regular-season finale after Osweiler threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
The Broncos’ situation with Osweiler reminds me of Seattle and Matt Flynn in 2012. Flynn had been a career backup to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, started a couple games for the Packers when Rodgers was hurt and had a huge game against the Lions (480 yards and six touchdowns).
The Seahawks the following March signed Flynn to a $20.5 million contract with $9 million guaranteed. Flynn then got beaten out in training camp by a third-round draft pick, some guy named Russell Wilson. Flynn was eventually traded to the Raiders, and the Seahawks took a cap hit from his dead money.
Perhaps Osweiler is the real deal, but he has not done enough to be paid in the $12.5 million-per-year range, where the Rams paid Foles on his extension after 24 starts and a Pro Bowl season.
If Osweiler was a sure-fire franchise quarterback, the Broncos probably would have elevated him after Manning’s struggle in their 2014 playoff loss to the Colts. Or another team would have seen enough in Osweiler's preseason play to make Denver a strong enough trade offer.
If I'm Elway, I'm hoping Manning makes the retirement call. If Manning is not ready to call it quits, I would thank him and gracefully tell him his Broncos tenure is over. I'd try to keep Osweiler but also draft a quarterback within the first three rounds of the draft — there are several interesting prospects.
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I would offer Osweiler a two-year deal for $18 million to $20 million with a Pro Bowl incentive, plus a big Super Bowl incentive and rollover to his following year's base salary if he does lead the team back to the big game. I would keep the guaranteed money around $10 million. That way the potential dead money would be in the $5 million range — not ideal, but an amount that can be absorbed.
And if another team offers Osweiler $13 million per year, I'd let him walk. I would trust my great defense and find a couple new quarterbacks via free agency and the draft to lead the team. Hopefully one of them would become my next franchise QB.
If I'm Osweiler and/or his agent, I'd give the Broncos a slight hometown discount and stay in Denver. He’s 25 and would benefit from a great supporting cast to set himself up for a bigger pay day two years down the road.
Jeff Diamond is former president of the Titans, and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
