Will the NFL expand to other cities, and if so, which ones?

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Will the NFL expand to other cities, and if so, which ones? image

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Answer by Jay Wacker

I think the 32 team format is pretty compelling from a structural point of view. The scheduling of the seasons makes sense over the long-term. If you added one, tw or even four teams, it wouldn't make sense. You would really need to add eight teams, one per division. That would be a huge dilution of talent.

While it's conceivable that you could have European expansion, it'd be tough to support four teams, which is the minimal number to have a viable division. You'd really like eight so that there wouldn't be so many trans-Atlantic trips.  

The most likely route to expansion would be a lower NFL league and setting up a Premier League-like system where the worst team or two of each conference would go down to the lower league and the the best teams of the lower league would go up. I think people are pretty sick of perennial losers where you get the feeling that players stop playing after mid-November. I'd love to see the Jaguars and Raiders play for their lives this season, rather than already knowing that they're playing for draft position next year.

If we think which markets could support teams...

  • Los Angeles (second largest U.S. metro area, 13.1M people)

  • San Antonio (25th largest U.S. metro area, 2.3M people)

  • Salt Lake City (48th largest U.S. metro area, 1.1M people)

  • Portland (24th largest U.S. metro area, 2.3M people)

  • Orlando (26th largest U.S. metro area, 2.3M people)

  • Oklahoma City (42nd largest U.S. metro area, 1.3M people)

  • Las Vegas (31st largest U.S. metro area, 2.0M people)

  • Milwaukee (39th largest U.S. metro area, 1.6M people)

That could make for a good eight team lower league. Amongst the 30 largest markets, only Riverside/Ontario/San Bernadino would be missing out — and the only reason not to do them is that the L.A. area has historically had a tough time supporting teams. 

Here's an image of the teams superimposed on other teams' spheres of influence.

One of the immediate benefits is that it would stop the push to move teams to new markets. If there is additional push to expand, it wouldn't be a big deal. Maybe L.A. could support a second team or maybe Sacramento (though the Raiders might be allowed to move there since it's roughly in its sphere of influence) or Virginia Beach could get a team.

These could provide a second game on Thursday and fill out the Sunday late game schedule. They could have a 14-game season followed by a two-round, four-team playoff where the top two teams go to the upper league and the winner gets to pick which division they go into. You could have a third round where the teams in danger of dropping out of the upper league would play the teams trying to get in.

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen in the near term. The NFL is doing pretty well and I think they wouldn't want to upset the apple cart.

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