This is the second in a series of Throwback Thursday stories looking back on what Sporting News wrote about some of today's biggest NFL stars — right before they were drafted.
The following was a spotlight on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers originally printed in SN's 2005 Pro Football Draft Guide. When college football writer Matt Hayes asked a scout about Rodgers' stock coming out of California, there was an interesting comparison and contrast.
MORE: Read how Tom Brady nailed his own scouting report
So here we are with the age-old question of when to take a quarterback in the NFL draft. For every can't-miss franchise player who pans out, there are countless first-round busts who are out of the league with signing bonus money still in the bank.
So here we are with Aaron Rodgers, California's mercurial quarterback who was throwing passes at tiny Butte Community College not long ago. Now he's on everyone's radar as one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft. But is he worthy of such a high pick — of potentially the No. 1 overall selection?
"It's a big gamble," one AFC scout said. "He certainly has the tools, bue he's no lock. He's no (Peyton) Manning or (Troy) Aikman. But he's definitely not Ryan Leaf, either."
Just where does Rodgers fall on the bell curve of stars and busts? For all of his positives, Rodgers wasn't even starting for the Golden Bears until after the first month of the 2003 season. He's not the prototypical NFL quarterback; he's a bit undersized (6-2, 210 pounds) and not necessarily durable or athletic.
Still, Rodgers has put up big passing numbers (43 touchdowns, 5,469 yards) while leading Cal's rise among the nation's elite. He has one of the strongest arms in college in recent years, makes fantastic decisions and has played in a pro-style offense under head coach Jeff Tedford, who routinely churs out first-round NFL quarterbacks.
But of all the quarterbacks Tedford has coached, of all those first-round picks, only the Texans' David Carr appears to be on track to match his potential with performance. Akili Smith is out of the league, Trent Dilfer is a serviceable backup, and Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller haven't emerged as team leaders or elite talents.
Then again, of this year's 12 playoff teams, six started a quarterback who was chosen in the first round. And there's no doubt Rodgers will go in the first round; in fact, he likely won't slide past the Buccaneers' No. 5 overall pick.
"I'm not trying to compare myself to any of those guys," Rodgers told Sporting News. "I can't worry about what other guys did or where I would fall in line. When you make the move to the next level, that's where players separate. That's where I have to separate from everyone else and show what I can do."
Rodgers shockingly dropped to the No. 24 overall pick in 2005, going well behind top choice Alex Smith. Green Bay wisely stopped his freefall to make him the successor to Brett Favre, and Rodgers has rewarded the team since by becoming the best overall QB in the NFL.