NFL fans, put on your thinking caps, because it's about to get weird in Week 18.
While a majority of the focus is going to be on the playoff picture, there are a few fan bases who already have their eyes on the next offseason event — the 2024 NFL Draft. While the Bears are locked into the No. 1 pick, thanks to the Panthers guaranteed to finish last in the league, the rest of the order has yet to be decided.
The big discussion for Week 18 is who ends up with the No. 2 pick in this summer's selection. There are three teams who still can wind up owning the second overall pick — the Commanders, the Patriots and the Cardinals.
All three clubs enter the final week of the regular season at 4-12. While New England was sitting right behind Chicago in the draft order for a few weeks, two wins in the last four weeks have allowed Washington to creep up further in the draft order. Currently, it is the Commanders that own the second overall draft pick.
However, even with only one weekend of games remaining, there is a chance there is going to be shuffling towards to the top of the draft board.
MORE: Updates NFL standings, playoff picture for Week 18
Here is a look at how the Patriots, Commanders and Cardinals can wind up with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Who will get No. 2 pick in 2024 NFL Draft?
How Commanders can clinch No. 2 pick
Washington currently sits as with the second overall pick in the draft. In order for the Commanders to secure that spot, they might need some outside help.
Th easiest way for Washington to stay in that No. 2 spot is to lose in Week 18, and have New England lose as well. As long as the Commanders pick up a 13th loss, they own the tiebreaker over the Cardinals, so no matter the result of Arizona's game against Seattle, that won't be an issue if Washington loses to Dallas.
The problem is if the Patriots also lose in Week 18, leaving both the Commanders and Pats at 4-13. Or, if all three teams win, that puts the race for the No. 2 pick in a three-way tie with Arizona, Washington and New England all at 5-12. That's when tiebreakers come into play.
Steve Kornacki recently broke down the tie-breaking scenarios on NFL Network. The No. 1 tiebreaker when it comes to the draft is not head-to-head records, but actually strength of schedule. When it comes to New England and Washington, it quite literally may come down to a single game.
A lot of uncertainty for the #2 spot in the 2024 Draft. Who’s getting it? 👀
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 3, 2024
Watch the full clip with @SteveKornacki and @PSchrags ➡️ https://t.co/NERtUMb7W3 pic.twitter.com/KQ25i3lv1m
As Kornacki explains, the Commanders' opponents have a total record this year of 140-132. The Patriots' opposition have compiled a combined record of 141-131. So certain other results in Week 18 could ultimately dictate who ends up with the top pick, if it swings the strength of schedule one way or another.
MORE: Who has declared for the 2024 NFL Draft? Latest updates on Caleb Williams, other top prospects
For Washington to maintain its place in the draft order, it has to have the record of New England's opponents be better than its own. That way, the strength of schedule tiebreaker works in its favor for the No. 2 pick.
How Patriots can clinch No. 2 pick
What was stated above basically also applies to the Patriots. New England can land the No. 2 pick with a loss to New York and a Washington win over Dallas. As long as the Patriots lose, the result of the Cardinals game does not matter.
However, if both the Pats and Commanders wind up at 4-13, then the strength of schedule tiebreaker comes into play. New England would need its record of previous opponents to be worse than Washington's, otherwise it will not get the second overall pick.
If somehow the opponent's records are identical at the conclusion of the regular season, then the next step in the tie-breaking procedures is head-to-head, which works in Belichick and Co.'s favor. The Commanders defeated the Patriots earlier this year 20-17, giving New England the edge in that tie-breaking scenario and the rights to the No. 2 pick in the draft.
How Cardinals can clinch No. 2 pick
For Arizona, it is a heck of a lot simpler than the cases for New England and Washington.
It's simple — the Cardinals need to lose, and the Patriots and Commander both must win or tie in Week 18. The only way for the organization to get the second overall pick is to be the only team holding a record of 4-13.
Arizona's strength of schedule is far stronger than either of the other two clubs, so if there is a scenario where the Cardinals have the same record as either or both teams for the No. 2 draft pick, then the tie-breaking edge goes to either the Commanders or Pats.
NFL Draft order 2024
Here's an updated look at the 2024 NFL Draft order entering Week 18. The Bears are locked in as the No. 1 pick with the Panthers guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the league this season.
| Pick | Team | Record |
| 1 | Bears (from CAR) | 2-14 |
| 2 | Commanders | 4-12 |
| 3 | Patriots | 4-12 |
| 4 | Cardinals | 4-12 |
| 5 | Giants | 5-11 |
| 6 | Titans | 5-11 |
| 7 | Chargers | 5-10 |
| 8 | Jets | 6-10 |
| 9 | Falcons | 7-9 |
| 10 | Bears | 7-9 |
| 11 | Raiders | 7-9 |
| 12 | Packers | 7-8 |
| 13 | Vikings | 7-8 |
| 14 | Saints | 8-8 |
| 15 | Broncos | 8-8 |
| 16 | Bengals | 8-8 |
| 17 | Cardinals (from HOU) | 9-7 |
| 18 | Steelers | 9-7 |
| 19 | Buccaneers | 8-8 |
| 20 | Seahawks | 8-8 |
| 21 | Colts | 9-7 |
| 22 | Jaguars | 9-7 |
| 23 | Rams | 9-7 |
| 24 | Bills | 10-6 |
| 25 | Chiefs | 10-6 |
| 26 | Eagles | 11-5 |
| 27 | Lions | 11-5 |
| 28 | Texans (from CLE) | 11-5 |
| 29 | Dolphins | 11-5 |
| 30 | Cowboys | 11-5 |
| 31 | 49ers | 12-4 |
| 32 | Ravens | 13-3 |
Notes
- The Bears own the Panthers' first-round pick as a result of the trade that sent the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina and D.J. Moore to Chicago.
- The Cardinals own the Texans' first-round pick as part of Houston's trade up to select Will Anderson Jr. with the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft.
- The Texans own the Browns' first-round pick as a result of the Deshaun Watson trade from 2022.
