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With the draft only a day away, the takes around the draft, specifically the top ten, are being thrown around more than a baseball in Truist Park. It’s hard to keep track of everything, so I wanted to look into just a few things these insiders, beat writers and draft pundits are hearing about the Atlanta Falcons as we creep closer to the start of the 2024 NFL draft.
The Athletic’s NFL National Insider Jeff Howe: Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner is “widely viewed” as the favorite
The Athletic’s Jeff Howe released an article detailing his latest intel on the 2024 draft and it started with three simple words: “Prepare for mayhem.” Despite his warning, his selection for the Falcons could be anything but hectic. In fact, it’s been the norm for Falcons fans for quite some time. Atlanta is slated to select Alabama’s Dallas Turner.
“Turner was widely viewed as the favorite because he is the top pass rusher in the draft, and most believed he was the best overall defensive player. One executive didn’t want to dismiss UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu at this spot, though…Another said cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are among the 10 highest-graded players in the class.”
NFL Network’s Charles Davis: Atlanta takes the “best all-around pass rusher” in UCLA’s Laiatu Latu
The Falcons are in great need of a pass rush, that’s the reason why they are seen as the first, and possibly only, spot where a defensive player could be selected in the top ten. The question is which pass rusher they feel is the best fit for the current timeline Atlanta is on with a veteran quarterback like Kirk Cousins. NFL Network’s Charles Davis believes they take the risk on UCLA’s Latu medical history.
“Atlanta is eager to compete right now in the NFC South, and edge tops the team’s list of needs, so the Falcons take the best all-around pass rusher in this draft.”
The Athletic’s Josh Kendall: Anyone can be a trade partner, apparently, Falcons can draft “the most explosive player” in this year’s draft
The Athletic had a beat writer’s mock draft where the writers for each team put on their GM hats and worked their way through the first round in the draft. With the recent retirement of guard James Hurst, the New Orleans Saints are desperate for any help along the offensive line. Falcons beat writer Josh Kendall leveraged that fact, took pick 45 from the hated rival and moved down to 14. With the 14th pick, Kendall selected one of the sleepers in this year’s draft in Texas’ Byron Murphy II.
“A late riser (at least publicly) in the draft process, the 6-foot, 297-pounder is maybe the most explosive player pound-for-pound in this draft…Murphy only started one year at Texas and didn’t put up spectacular numbers (eight career sacks and 70 career tackles), but he can be a pass-rush presence on the interior because of his quick twitch off the line of scrimmage.”
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer: Atlanta Falcons have called to “trade up within the top half of the first round”
The one thing that the Falcons can leverage as the draft nears is that nobody really knows where Atlanta will go with the eighth overall pick. With Cousins in the fold, the defense in dire need of assistance, and Atlanta having a clear path to their choice of a defensive playmaker, the only movement we should see from Fontenot and company should be a possible trade-down. According to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, that’s not the case.
“Teams that have called on trading up within the top half of the first round: Las Vegas Raiders, Broncos, Vikings, Atlanta Falcons and Giants.”
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler: Falcons "like Penix a lot"
General Manager Terry Fontenot has stated that they will add another quarterback to the room either through the draft or afterward. One of the quarterbacks that have been heavily linked to Atlanta is Washington's Michael Penix Jr. After sending a large contingency to go see Penix earlier in the process, there has started to become a real buzz surrounding the potential Penix to Atlanta connection, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
"Multiple people have told me this week that they believe the Falcons like Penix a lot. Enough to take him No. 8? That's hard to say. But he'll likely be long gone by the time the Falcons are on the clock again at No. 43.
Quarterback isn't an on-paper need for Atlanta after the Kirk Cousins signing. But general manager Terry Fontenot hasn't drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds of any of his first three drafts. Falcons brass, including Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris, flew all the way to Seattle to watch Penix work out for a few hours, then flew home. No dinner, no stayover. Penix has enough interest that the top 15 isn't off the table for him.
The safe pick for Atlanta would be to go defense, but it has done enough QB homework to make it a plausible move at some point in the draft."
ESPN's Field Yates: If McCarthy falls, the Falcons could be a beneficiary
In Field Yates' final predictive mock draft, the Minnesota Vikings hold out on trading up into the top ten and allowing Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy to test the waters with the New York Giants at 6. With New York taking Nabers, Minnesota lets him fall two more spots, but can't hold out any longer and pick swaps with Atlanta.
Vikings get: No. 8
Falcons get: No. 11, No. 129 and a 2025 third-rounderThis is a smaller move up the board than we've discussed frequently during the pre-draft process -- Minnesota jumping into the 3-5 range -- but the Vikings can slide up just three spots at a much less prohibitive cost to snag a quarterback here based on the way the board is coming together.
At 11, Atlanta picks up Texas' Byron Murphy II and starts building up the defense from the inside.
The Falcons have been widely viewed as the team to take the first defensive player in the draft at their original No. 8 slot, but they might still manage to do it even after the small move back. No defensive players in the top 10 here! Atlanta needs pass-rush help after finishing last in pass rush win rate (30.9%), and Murphy would surely provide it as one of the most disruptive players in the class. Throughout the pre-draft process, he has drawn some parallels to Grady Jarrett, and I love the idea of these two wreaking havoc together as teammates.
ESPN's Mel Kiper, Jr.: "The Falcons will take the first defensive player in the draft"
According to ESPN NFL draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr., Falcons fans can breathe easy. Atlanta is not taking a fourth-straight offensive playmaker in the first round.
I see this as edge rusher Dallas Turner (Alabama) or defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (Texas). The Falcons' defensive line was rough last season. Atlanta finished 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%). I have Turner ranked higher on my board (No. 9 vs. No. 27), but many teams see Murphy as an impact interior pass-rusher, which has increased his value.
