College football is witnessing the birth of a new trend. LSU's Leonard Fournette, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Baylor's Shock Linwood announced they will not be playing in their school’s bowl game this year and instead will begin to train for the 2017 NFL Draft.
It’s an entirely new premise for college athletes to consider and enact upon this option, and there have been polarizing views among fans and media members as well as college and pro personnel.
But this isn’t just an outlier of a story. It’s the continuation of college athletes' empowerment to choose their future professional careers over the current bowl system. It’s yet another aspect of the NFL draft process that needs consideration for these prospects, and what it will mean for the players in the future who follow suit.
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The choice is theirs, just like coaches
This year alone, we’ve seen over a dozen coaching changes at the college level, with coaches have the freedom to leave a program they helped build and recruit athletes to at the drop of a hat. Players, on the other hand, are locked into their scholarship commitment, and face a year away from the game should they look to transfer.
“I would be super disappointed [if one of his players did this],” one college recruiting director said, whose team received a bowl game berth this year. “I would understand from the sense that he's trying to protect his future, but if that's the case then why play [the games] at all? I think it's bulls— what McCaffrey and Fournette are doing. Bad look.”
That fear of disappointment was quickly answered by Leonard Fournette, who tweeted yesterday the “only person he owes something to” is his daughter, and understandably so — she would be the one, besides Fournette, most affected by a major injury.
We’re at the point now where college athletes have become more empowered than ever. The term “business decision” in the sports context no longer just means a pro athlete dodging a big hit or trying to avoid injury. It means players at every level are considering the ramifications of playing the game.
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“It's been an interesting thing to see.” said another college recruiting director and former NFL scout. “I really am torn on it. You preach 'team, team, team' from the time they get into this sport. It's not golf. It's not wrestling. It's a team sport.
“Coaches aren't staying once they get a chance to leave. Tom Herman got paid and he jumped. If I got a call for a better opportunity, would I stay and see this recruiting class through? I think this is the way the college athlete is nowadays. But I would tell them to play. That's just me. It says a little about who you are.”
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How/Why it could affect draft grade
NFL teams attend bowl games with scouting in mind, as any additional exposure to a team or player can help shape a prospect's evaluation. Bowl games have similar value to All-Star games — they can show a player in a different light, against a different offense/defense and against a different level of competition.
But primarily, the decision to not play in a bowl game will come down to the feelings of evaluators and how they perceive the reasoning behind passing on the opportunity to play in one final game.
“In my opinion, when it boils down to the kid’s grade, it won’t effect anything,” said one top NFL agent. “But grumblings and quotes will come out to the contrary simply because it threatens the establishment. I’ve spoken to many scouts about it and none had a problem with it.”
It’s those “grumblings" that players should be cautious of, because the draft process is still largely reliant on the decisions of the few. The frustration from a few NFL GMs who praise players for competitiveness and a team-first mentality may keep the decisions to skip bowl games in mind.
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“It’s not a big deal, but some of the older scouts will try to make it one,” an NFL area scout said. “We’ve seen enough of these guys. Maybe some competitiveness questions, and it’ll depend on the guy. But are their [Fournette, McCaffrey, Linwood] grades gonna drop? Not from this.”
Bruce Arians of the Cardinals weighed-in on the discussion as well, stating that a prospect skipping a bowl game would raise some red flags. “Depending on what their situation is as a team, because this is a team sport. But you’ve had a couple of guys get injured in the last couple years. Agents have a lot to say about it. Parents have a lot to say about it. But, it would concern me.”
Last year, the Cardinals drafted Robert Nkemdiche from Ole Miss in the first round of the NFL Draft. He was suspended for his team’s bowl game after an arrest.
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Looking to the future
As of now, just three players have bypassed their respective bowl games in favor of preparing for the NFL draft. It seems unlikely any others will follow suit this year as most of the remaining bowl game teams are already firmly into their game prep. But this is a discussion we’ll likely table for a year before we seem even more athletes consider it next bowl season.
Despite the quotes and hot takes that are likely to continue to pour in over the next few weeks and resurface again next year around the same time, likely with more veracity, this is certainly something to judge on a case-by-case basis.
Players with lingering injuries playing in a non-meaningful bowl game and who have been multi-year starters will likely get a pass. Players with limited experience without those same caveats will be questioned. And what about it a quarterback opts to follow suit? Who knows how harshly NFL teams will question it.
The most immediate reaction will be for NFL evaluators dig a little deeper into the reasons behind the decision. College coaches will likely be usually disappointed in the decision to “abandon” their teammates in the team’s final game, and may be more honest about the prospect’s character during his college career, something most coaches aren’t usually forthcoming about.
In the end, it’s another piece of the puzzle. In large part, teams can’t truly see what a player’s mental makeup is until after he’s in their training camp despite the heavy focus on a player’s character, motivations and passions. Scouts, coaches and fans can choose to be disappointed in these prospects decisions, but Fournette and McCaffrey have been high-character individuals who are simply choosing to leave school a bit early. So long as they’ve made peace with their teammates and coaching staff, they’ll sleep easy trusting in their decision.
This is another step in the emergence of the empowered college athlete, and Fournette and McCaffrey are taking the first steps towards a new option players hadn’t considered before.