San Diego State’s Donnel Pumphrey has been the Aztecs’ star over the last four years, and now he’s on pace to cement his legacy among college football’s elites. But is an NFL career guaranteed for one of the most productive running backs in college football history?
Also in this week’s NFL draft spotlight, Virginia Tech’s Isaiah Ford might be the next Will Fuller.
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Plus, a look at the best non-Power 5 conference seniors in the country, and finally, a receiver who is rewriting the reception record books.
Is historically-great Donnel Pumphrey good enough for the NFL?
After posting a 200-yard rushing performance against Utah State, Pumphrey’s fourth 200-plus game of the season, the San Diego State running back continues to inch closer to the all-time rushing record. While he needs over 1,300 yards through his next six games to break Ron Dayne’s career rushing total (unlikely), he needs less than 800 rushing yards to break Barry Sanders’ single season rushing record of 2,628 yards.
Pumphrey will be all over the record books, and most of the all-time single season leaders have gone on to succeed in the NFL.
He offers good quickness working to the perimeter and can turn the corner with speed, and his toughness despite being undersized is something to appreciate. His read steps to the hole are patient but at times a bit too lengthy, and he firmly relies on his offensive line’s initial push to give him the spring to maximize his burst.
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But Pumphrey — measurable are 5’8, 166 pounds, 28.5 inch arms and 8 ¼ inch hands — doesn’t have the body type of an NFL running back. While he offers extremely quick feet as he approaches the line of scrimmage and can accelerate as he hits the open field, he doesn’t offer much elusiveness at the second level.
With a thin lower half and his best NFL playing weight likely in the mid 170s, Pumphrey has few NFL comparisons. He likely will surpass DeAngelo Williams’ college career carry total next week, but Williams weighed 214 pounds and posted 25 bench reps. Pumphrey's running style and non-Power 5 production compares to last year’s fourth-round pick Tyler Ervin out of San Jose State, but he doesn’t have the receiving experience Ervin did coming out of college.
Only one running back of Humphrey’s size has been drafted, and it’s likely his best (albeit still optimistic) comparison: former Oregon Duck De’Anthony Thomas.
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Thomas, who was productive in a loaded Oregon backfield during the Chip Kelly era, was drafted in the fourth round in 2014. However, he was eventually switched to receiver to secure his spot on the Chiefs’ roster, and his 3.1 receptions per game average at Oregon treated him well for that transition. Pumphrey, on the other hand, has averaged just 1.7 receptions per game in his career and might need to match Thomas’ sub-4.35 40 time to even merit top-four round consideration.
Pumphrey has been a joy to watch, and the gaudy numbers he produces each week never cease to amaze. But without the size, enough examples of pass catching upside or special elusiveness, Pumphrey might be without suitors throughout much of the 2017 NFL Draft.
Player spotlight: Virginia Tech WR Isaiah Ford
The Hokies have flown under the radar since their loss to Tennessee in Week 2, but Virginia Tech has made a convincing rebound in Justin Fuente’s first year as head coach. Their success, which includes victories at North Carolina, against Miami and last week at Pittsburgh, is in large part thanks to the development of quarterback Jerod Evans (perhaps Fuente's next Paxton Lynch-like project) … but also how the Hokies’ offensive centerpieces have risen to the occasion.
Tight end Bucky Hodges has received much of the fanfare, and for good reason. He might be the first tight end taken if he declares, and the 6-7 target led the team in yards against Pittsburgh. But in an upcoming receiving class that doesn’t feature more than a few obvious top-two round receivers, Ford might go even earlier.
Ford’s late-game touchdown catch against Pitt epitomized his concentration ability for a smaller receiver. His good speed is coupled with quick body reaction and focus to finish away from his frame and not lose body control as he contorts to the ball. He is proficient on the inside with slants, deeper posts and hitch routes, but he’ll make his NFL living threatening defenses vertically whenever he’s lined up outside.
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Over the last two drafts, we’ve seen three receivers (Will Fuller, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith) selected in the top 50 picks with the same primary assets as those of Ford: vertical ability coupled with concentration.
Ford isn’t a lock to declare early, but in a 2017 receiver class that is ultimately underwhelming, he might be the type of receiver NFL teams are quietly coveting more and more, and he could see his stock rise to the top 50 picks come draft weekend.
Top 10: Non-Power 5 NFL prospects (seniors only)
Every year, especially in-season, a large majority of the discussion focuses on major programs. And for good reason: Fans primarily are concerned with which teams are ranked highest and who might play in the College Football Playoff.
But on average, more than one tenth of the top 100 picks will come from non-Power 5 (and Notre Dame) schools. Last year, five first-rounders were from Group of Five or “small schools."
Here are the best prospects this year.
1. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan (first-second round)
2. Tyus Bowser, DE, Houston (second-third round)
3. Dion Dawkins, OT, Temple (second-third round)
4. Isaiah Jones, WR, East Carolina (second-third round)
5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington (second-third round)
6. Julian Davenport, OT, Bucknell (second-third round)
7. Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte (third-fourth round)
8. Jamal Williams, RB, BYU (fourth-fifth round)
9. Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama (fourth-fifth round)
10. Keionta Davis, DE, Chattanooga (fourth-fifth round)
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Davis leads a talented crop of under-the-radar receivers, and he deserves some first-round buzz. NFL teams love his route diversity, vertical capability and finishing ability away from his frame.
Dawkins might have the next best chance to go in the first round, especially with the offensive tackle class being one of the weakest in recent memory. Davenport probably will impress at the Senior Bowl and work his way into top 40 consideration.
Ogunjobi comes from a Charlotte program recently bumped up to the FBS level, but he’s grown from a regional scout favorite to a potential top-100 prospect.
Something you missed: Zay Jones has a team’s worth of receptions vs. UConn
Pumphrey isn’t the only senior on track to break records before he moves on to the next level. East Carolina’s Isaiah “Zay” Jones put up 19 receptions against UConn last weekend, the fourth time this season he’s had 17 or more receptions in a single game.
With five games to go, he’s already 24th all-time on the single-season receptions chart with 114 catches, and he’s on pace to blow by the current record of 155. For his career, he’s likely to surpass former ECU standout Justin Hardy in the next two weeks for the most all-time and is on pace for 412 career receptions. He also is on pace for 4,174 yards, including a bowl game if ECU is invited to one, which would put him the top 15 all-time.
Against UConn, the likely Biletnikoff winner also showed off his red-zone accuracy, as he threw one of two touchdown pass trick plays for the Pirates, this one on a double reverse back to quarterback Philip Nelson.