The top-seeded Ravens will host the reigning-champion Chiefs in Baltimore this Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET, CBS), in what should be an AFC Championship Game to remember. Everyone knows the surplus of stars from this game, from MVP quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson to world-famous tight end Travis Kelce.
However, you need sleepers and value picks just as much as studs if you want to win your DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, so today we will highlight our favorite under-the-radar plays from this AFC clash.
These teams both have elite defenses, but they also both enjoy an embarrassment of offensive riches.
Let's get right into our DFS sleepers and value picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, listing the most affordable high-value options at each position as well as their listed cost or boost on each DFS site. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Conference Championship Sunday!
Best NFL DFS sleepers for Ravens vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game
RB: Justice Hill, Ravens vs. Chiefs (DK: $4,600 | FD: $9,000 | SD: 1.5x)
The DFS sites all seem to be overlooking Hill, probably because LJax curbs his RBs' upsides and Gus Edwards saw the lion's share of Baltimore's backfield touches this season (not to mention 13 TDs to Hill's three). However, the Gus Bus looked broken down last week against the Texans, and Hill wound up seeing just two fewer touches than his veteran running mate (10-8).
Hill wasn't spectacular by any means, but he has proven himself as a dependable runner and pass-catcher. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per reception on the season, he caught nearly 72 percent of his targets, and he only fumbled once in 112 touches.
The one area Kansas City's otherwise elite defense has struggled is against the run. Hill possesses more big play potential than Edwards, so even if the workload is spread wide, there's real potential for big plays against the Chiefs' aggressive blitz-heavy scheme.You could do a lot worse than Hill at $4,600.
RB: Dalvin Cook, Ravens vs. Chiefs (DK: $1,200 | FD: $6,500 | SD: 1.7x)
Extreme value alert! Cook got scooped up by Baltimore a couple weeks ago after the Jets waived him, and John Harbaugh and the Ravens kicked the tires on the veteran last week against Houston.
The result was an underwhelming 23 yards on eight carries, but what's important is that he actually saw eight touches in a playoff game! That's a 25.8 percent share of the Ravens' backfield attempts! If Edwards and/or Hill get banged up or struggle to gain traction — or if Baltimore races out to a big lead — Cook could be a DFS week-winner.
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WR: Nelson Agholor, Ravens vs. Chiefs (DK: $5,000 | FD: $8,000 | SD: 1.6x)
Agholor is the definition of a sleeper this week. In Baltimore's six games since Week 14, the veteran speedster has caught 17-of-21 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Those TDs came in San Francisco back in Week 16 and last week against an underrated Texans D.
If we can nab another TD from a dude priced in the bargain bin, that's huge. If we just get five catches for 39 yards (8.9 DK points) like we got from him in Pittsburgh back in Week 18, that's okay, too. All season long, the Chiefs DB tandem of L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have stifled No. 1 receivers. That opens the door for the likes of Agholor to receive some shine normally reserved for Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr.
TE: Mark Andrews (DK: $6,600 | FD: $11,000 | SD: 1.2x)
We love both Ravens tight ends. Let's start with Andrews, who when healthy, remains one of the more lethal red-zone targets in the NFL. Reports have surfaced that he has a distinct chance of being activated off IR and making his triumphant return just in time to help Baltimore fight for a spot in Super Bowl 58.
In his nine games before sustaining an ankle injury in mid-November, the three-time Pro Bowler averaged 4.5 catches, 54.4 yards, and a 73.8 percent catch rate to go with six TDs. He's LJax's top target on third downs and near the goal line, so we're capitalizing on his injury discount and drafting Andrews wherever we can. Toss in potentially blustery and rainy conditions, suddenly this feels like a security blanket game.
TE: Isaiah Likely (DK: $6,400 | FD: $10,000 | SD: 1.35x)
Of course, Likely has been no slouch himself, and he's easily a value with or without Andrews in the active lineup. And while the Ravens didn't lean into two tight end sets much during the regular season, both Likely and Charlie Kolar were on the field together for three of the Ravens' four touchdowns against Houston including Likely's TD.
Likely caught 75 percent of his targets in the regular season, he has four TDs over the past three weeks, and he's averaging 16.6 yards per reception over the past six weeks. Fire 'em both up if you can!
TE Noah Gray, Chiefs at Ravens (DK: $1,800 | FD: $7,000 | SD: 1.8x)
If you can't afford Travis Kelce or either of the aforementioned Ravens tight ends, take a look at Noah Gray. He has caught 4-of-4 targets for 36 yards over Kansas City's past two games, and he sometimes surprises secondaries as a last-second end-zone target for Mahomes.
With an absurd amount of defensive attention likely on Kelce, Rice, and running back Isiah Pacheco, we wouldn't be shocked if Gray made a couple big chunk plays or landed in the end zone for six. Andy Reid loves dialing up unusual plays in the red zone (see: Mecole Hardman's fumble in the end zone last week) and Gray could be one to benefit. At this price, we'll be happy with anything we get out of him.
