Thursday Night Football should be a fun one this week, with Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins hosting Josh Allen and the AFC East-rival Bills at Hard Rock Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime).
If you're entering some DFS tournaments ahead of this star-studded matchup, the Sporting News can help point you in the right direction of the top sleepers, studs, and value picks so you can optimize your lineups.
And what a buffet of talent you'll have to choose from this evening. Hill and fellow star receiver Jaylen Waddle combined for 12 catches and 239 yards last week in Miami's win over the Jaguars, while Allen racked up a total of 271 yards and four TDs en route to victory over the Cardinals.
MORE: Dolphins vs. Bills odds, expert picks and predictions
Everyone knows the big names, but the key to building an ideal DFS showdown or single-game roster is to get the most bang for your buck with savvy Captain/MVP picks, sleeper flex plays, and contrarian strategies.
Keep reading to see our optimal lineups for the Dolphins vs. Bills in DFS showdown and single-game contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the divisional clash!
Dolphins vs. Bills NFL DFS picks: Optimal DraftKings lineup
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR, and they feature three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
POSITION | PLAYER | TEAM/OPPONENT | SALARY |
Captain | Jeff Wilson Jr., RB | Dolphins vs. Bills | $3,600 |
FLEX | Tyreek Hill, WR | Dolphins vs. Bills | $11,600 |
FLEX | Josh Allen, QB | Bills at Dolphins | $11,000 |
FLEX | Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Dolphins vs. Bills | $9,400 |
FLEX | Jaylen Waddle, WR | Dolphins vs. Bills | $8,600 |
FLEX | Keon Coleman, WR | Bills at Dolphins | $5,800 |
Captain: Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Dolphins vs. Bills ($3,600)
Wilson Jr. could be our meal ticket this week, as fellow Dolphins back Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out and De'Von Achane's status remains up in the air. If Wilson sees RB1 volume and finds anywhere near the level of per-touch efficiency he established in Week 1 (5 rushes for 26 yards), it's going to be a fun TNF ride.
The biggest reason to make Wilson our Captain: it allows us to afford the four biggest stars in this game. If we can roster Hill, Allen, Tua, and Waddle, it feels like a no-brainer to slot Wilson into the 1.5-times boost spot for just $3,600. One long run and we're probably in the money. A touchdown or two and we could be flirting with the grand prize.
MORE: Top DFS sleepers and value picks for NFL Week 2
FLEX: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins vs. Bills ($11,600)
It's almost inconceivable to construct a lineup involving a Dolphins game and somehow not utilize Hill. He's the most lethal weapon in the sport, and not even pre-game handcuffs can contain him.
Hill put up 29 DK points almost effortlessly in Week 1, and now he gets to torch a Buffalo secondary that's pretty young and looked pretty mistake-prone in the Bills' shaky 34-28 win over the Cardinals. Fire up the Cheetah!
FLEX 2: Josh Allen, QB, Bills vs. Dolphins ($11,000)
A perennial MVP candidate, Allen will need to be at the top of his game this year in order for Buffalo to continue its positive run of success in the AFC. Life without Stefon Diggs already seemed hard last week against Arizona, which fields the secondary PFF ranked 32nd at the start of the season.
No worries, though — Allen broke the Cards in the second half like the Bills Mafia breaks plastic tables while tailgating. All said, the big-bruising QB put up 32.2 fantasy points. He's a must-roster asset on Thursday night.
FLEX 3: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins vs. Bills ($9,400)
Tua made for some strong fantasy team names this year, but he remains an underrated and underappreciated fantasy and DFS player due to the sheer number of studs who play around him.
Still, you can't argue with the strategy of stacking him with Hill and Waddle — why benefit from the two most dangerous pass-catchers on the team and not also benefit from the QB's points in every completion and passing touchdown? It's a no-brainer, especially if you have the cheddar.
MORE: How to play DFS | Best NFL betting sites
FLEX 4: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins vs. Bills ($8,600)
As you might have guessed by now, I have the Dolphins beating the Bills in our Thursday Night Football betting preview. So, of course Waddle made the cut for our TNF showdown squad. He caught all five of his targets in Week 1 against the Jags, totaling a saucy 109 yards and 19.2 DK points. Here's hoping he does something similar this week against the oft-shaky cornerback corps of Buffalo.
FLEX 5: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills at Dolphins ($5,800)
Coleman led the Bills in both targets (5) and receiving yards (51) in his NFL debut, but he failed to find the end zone unlike his veteran teammates Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins. Still, it's comforting to see Allen trusting in his new shiny toy, and Coleman clearly has the goods to evolve into a go-to WR1. At $5,800 with exactly $5,800 left in our war chest, this pick practically made itself.
Dolphins vs. Bills NFL DFS picks: Optimal FanDuel lineup
Here are the key scoring settings for FanDuel single-game tournaments: They're half-point PPR with three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, or 100 receiving yards. The MVP pick multiplies that player's total by 1.5 but does not cost 1.5 times their listed salary.
POSITION | PLAYER | TEAM/OPPONENT | SALARY |
MVP | Tyreek Hill, WR | Dolphins vs. Bills | $16,500 |
FLEX | Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Dolphins vs. Bills | $14,000 |
FLEX | De'Von Achane, RB | Dolphins vs. Bills | $12,500 |
FLEX | Keon Coleman, WR | Bills at Dolphins | $10,000 |
FLEX | Jeff Wilson Jr., RB | Dolphins vs. Bills | $6,500 |
We're still stacking Hill and Tua, but we're putting TyFreak in the MVP spot since it doesn't cost us any extra to get the 1.5-times multiplier on him.
We're also hedging a bit, so we have some Achane stock, just in case he suits up and we can almost guarantee ourselves a near-monopoly on Dolphins rushing production between him and JWJ.
Coleman remains the best upside pass-catcher for Buffalo, as we're not touching Dalton Kincaid after he caught one pass for 11 yards against Arizona. Miami stymied Evan Engram last week, so we're not signing up for a similar heartbreak.
Dolphins vs. Bills NFL DFS picks: Optimal SuperDraft lineup
As we did all of last season, we're also featuring SuperDraft lineups in our single-game DFS contest columns.
For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft's DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-1.6x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. Users can roster any player in their lineup with no restrictions.
Here are the most notable scoring rules for SuperDraft NFL contests: Half-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, and two-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards. SuperDraft lineups feature no D/ST position. The "Champ" position adds an additional 50-percent boost to the selected player, while the SuperFlex positions are limited to the boost listed for each player.
POSITION | PLAYER | GAME | BOOST |
CHAMP | Jaylen Waddle, WR | Dolphins vs. Bills | 1.95x |
SFLEX | Tyreek Hill, WR | Dolphins vs. Bills | 1x |
SFLEX | Khalil Shakir, WR | Bills at Dolphins | 1.5x |
SFLEX | Keon Coleman, WR | Bills at Dolphins | 1.6x |
SFLEX | Jeff Wilson Jr., RB | Dolphins vs. Bills | 1.95x |
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft
The name of the game with SuperDraft and its non-salary, boost-fueled DFS contests is still value, but it does also place an impetus on lineup variance.
So, when 70 percent of entrants pick Tyreek at just one times the points boost, it makes sense for us to draft Waddle at 1.95 times and hope we can Waddle to victory.
We also add Shakir for his healthy flex boost and because of the TD upside. Other than that, we're looking pretty similar here as to what we did with our DK and FD lineups.
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