If you’re going to bet on the 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, don’t look past the top 40 picks in the draft. The last player selected outside of the top 40 to be named DROY was Erik McMillan back in 1988, and all but three of the defenders awarded this honor since that time were selected in the first round. That’s part of the reason why Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen are seen as the primary contenders for this year's award.
The other reason why those four players are considered the favorites to be named DROY is because it’s uncommon to see defensive backs win this award. While Marcus Peters and Marshon Lattimore have each won the award in the last five years, the last defensive back to be named DROY before those two was Charles Woodson in 1998.
Odds to win 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
(Odds via SportsInsider.com)
- Chase Young +500
- Isaiah Simmons +1000
- Kenneth Murray +1400
- Patrick Queen +1400
- A.J. Epenesa +2000
- Akeem Davis-Gaither +2500
- Ashtyn Davis +2500
- C.J. Henderson +2500
- Curtis Weaver +2500
- Derrick Brown +2500
- Grant Delpit +2500
- Javon Kinlaw +2500
- Jeff Okudah +2500
- Jordan Elliot +2500
- Julian Okwara +2500
- Kristian Fulton +2500
- Trevon Diggs +2500
- Troy Dye +2500
- Willie Gay Jr. +2500
- Jaylon Johnson +2800
- K’Lavon Chaisson +2800
- Marlon Davidson +2800
- Zack Baun +2800
All other rookies at +3300 or more
MORE: Get the latest odds at SportsInsider.com
Young, a defensive end, has drawn comparisons to Julius Peppers and Jadeveon Clowney with his freakish talent, and he is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year by the NFL futures odds. Young was incredible during his time at Ohio State. Despite missing three games last season, he set the school’s single-season sack record, and he came up big when it mattered the most. He was unblockable against both Penn State and Wisconsin, and his ability to get to the quarterback and stop the run were tops in this year’s class. Young was rated the top prospect in the NFL Draft by most analysts, and he only went No. 2 because of the importance of landing a quarterback. (QB Joe Burrow went No. 1 to the Bengals.)
It will be interesting to see how Vance Joseph uses Simmons in Arizona. Simmons was a Swiss army knife type of player at Clemson. His incredible athleticism led to Simmons being used at linebacker, defensive lineman, safety and even cornerback, as you just don’t find players his size (6-4, 238) with 4.39 speed in the 40-yard dash. While Joseph has stated it’s unlikely to see Simmons play any defensive back, he will probably be used at multiple places in the front seven, giving him the opportunity to stand out. He is worth a shot at 10-1 to win DROY.
The Chargers were elated to get Murray with their second pick in the first round, and the linebacker will be placed in the center of a star-studded defense. Los Angeles already has Derwin James and Joey Bosa to keep quarterbacks up at night, so Murray will have plenty of opportunity to succeed. However, while 14-1 odds are nice for a talented player like Murray, there is a question of how he will fare at the next level given the conference he played in. Big 12 defenders have not acquitted themselves well in the NFL.
Patrick Queen is the best bet on the board at this price. Queen is 14-1 to win DROY, and those are very palatable odds for the former LSU linebacker. Queen is seen as a Day 1 starter with the Ravens, and this defense is designed to funnel everything towards the middle. That will give Queen the opportunity to rack up a ton of tackles, and tackles are usually the most important stat when it comes to DROY voting. He will also play in multiple primetime games with the Ravens, giving him the chance to make a lasting impression.
The long shot to watch at this price is San Francisco defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw. Kinlaw excelled at South Carolina, and he will be in a fantastic position with the 49ers. He was drafted to replace DeForest Buckner along the defensive line, and Kinlaw won’t see double teams on a defensive line with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and Arik Armstead. Bosa has already called Kinlaw the perfect draft pick for the 49ers.