Four weeks of the 2023 NFL season have passed, and last weekend might have been the most unpredictable one since opening week. Despite the volatility, we have enjoyed massive overall success with our weekly best bets and top props, and we're ready to bring the heat again ahead of this Sunday's slate.
Each Friday afternoon, yours truly runs the gauntlet and handpicks my favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets. I search BetMGM, SuperDraft, and FanDuel for the best value, and tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through four weeks, we have done just that.
We have featured 56 bets over the first month of the campaign, and 31 of those bets have hit. Last week marked our only losing week of the season, but we still finished just one game under .500 with a 7-8 record. We still have a .563 winning percentage on the year, which any bettor knows is outstanding. But we feel confident that we are far better than a 56 percent success rate, and we like the Week 5 slate much better than the awful schedule presented to us last weekend.
Your goal is to win money, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That's why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across all the sports betting sites each week.
MORE WEEK 5 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline | Expert prop picks
Sports betting doesn't need to be considered 'gambling.' With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, it becomes far less of a gamble and much more of an investment. That's why we don't just call this thing of ours a hobby — rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
This weekend's slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
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NFL Best Bets Week 5: Against the spread
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Steelers (+4.5) vs. Ravens
Wait, so we're getting 4.5 points on the Steelers at home in a divisional rivalry game against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Yeah, sign us up. LJax has a 67.4 lifetime QB rating against Pittsburgh, by far the worst of the 29 NFL teams he has faced. His average passing yards per game against Mike Tomlin's squad throughout his career: 126.8. In his last two games in Pittsburgh, he has thrown two TDs and four interceptions while getting sacked 12 times. All-you-can-eat time for T.J. Watt and company.
And let's face it, Tomlin's squad will be hungry for a big W after getting stomped 30-6 by the Texans last week. Baltimore hasn't exactly had the most difficult first four weeks of an NFL season — John Harbaugh's squad has gone up against C.J. Stroud in his first NFL game, a banged-up Joe Burrow that probably should have been on the sideline, Gardner Minshew and the Colts (who upset the Ravens 22-19 in Baltimore), and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Not exactly a murderer's row.
Don't get us wrong — we're not trying to say Kenny Pickett is an assassin, by any stretch of the imagination. But he's good enough to game-manage the Steelers to a home victory over the injury-ravaged Ravens. J.K. Dobbins (knee) is out for the season. Rashod Bateman (hamstring) and Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) remain questionable. Multiple members of Baltimore's o-line and secondary have been listed out or doubtful on the Ravens' injury report. This is our upset of the week — and even if Baltimore pulls off a huge road win, it won't be by more than a field goal.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 23, Ravens 20
Colts (+2.5) vs. Titans
Wait, so the Colts have dynamic rookie QB Anthony Richardson — who has thrown seven TDs and zero interceptions — and they're getting a motivated, healthy Jonathan Taylor back, and yet they're getting 2.5 points at home against Tennessee!? Yes, please! Tennessee's pass defense remains one of the worst in the NFL — pass-funnel is fine if you get picks, but the Titans have one interception all friggin' season.
We're projecting Richardson to net 240-plus passing yards and two TDs this Sunday, thanks in large part to the attention Mike Vrabel's squad will be paying to JT and Richardson's legs. Michael Pittman will feast — the stud wideout has hauled in 25-of-42 targets for 243 yards and two TDs in his past two meetings with the Titans. The Colts win a statement game at home and put Richardson further up the odds board for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Colts 23, Titans 20
Other Week 5 spreads we like: Lions (-9.5) vs. Panthers; 49ers (-2.5) vs. Cowboys (-140); Eagles (-4) at Rams
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 5
Saints (-110) at Patriots
The Patriots have been abysmal this season, and it seems to be getting worse each week. New England has the third-worst scoring offense and fourth-most turnovers in the NFL. Bill Belichick's defense also has the third-worst turnover rate in the league, and now top pass-rusher Matt Judon (elbow) and stud rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) are hurt. Belichick made a move to bring back cornerback J.C. Jackson from the Chargers, but will he even be ready for Week 4? Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara must be licking their chops.
But the Saints' defense might be licking its chops even more. Mac Jones has been pathetic, but his offensive line has made him look even worse than he's actually been through four weeks. PFF ranks New England as the fifth-worst o-line in the league after Dallas pressured Jones 18 times, turned him over three times, and sacked him twice. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott have been little help — they netted 46 combined yards on 20 carries. It's easy to make Jones look bad when you have awful protection, a below-average run game, and the worst wide receiver corps in the NFL (goin' hard in the paint on my home squad!).
Even worse for Title-town, the Saints defense might be one of the more underrated units in the NFL. It ranks in the top-third of the league in scoring defense, total yards allowed, takeaways, and red-zone scoring allowed. New Orleans will likely continue putting pressure on Jones, stuff the run in the scoring zone, and force this Pats team into mistakes like we've seen them make every dang week of the season. Unless Dante Scarnecchia comes out of retirement to whip New England's line in shape, and/or Belichick trades for Jerry Jeudy, the Patriots seem destined for their worst (and possibly last) season under Bill Belichick.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Saints 20, Patriots 17
Jets (+115) at Broncos
These past two picks should prove to you that yours truly will never be a biased homer. Born, raised, and currently residing in southern Massachusetts, I have zero qualms fading the Pats and betting the Jets this week. I'm about winning, and these are the two best moneylines on the Week 5 slate, in my humble opinion. Zach Wilson looked damn good against the reigning-champion Chiefs last week, almost funking around and getting the primetime upset in front of millions of confused Swifties. Now he and fellow Wilson Garrett get to do some damage in Denver, where the Broncos have arguably the worst defense in the league.
Think about the first month of the Broncos' season. They surrendered 70 points to the Dolphins, 35 points to the Commanders at home, and 28 points to Justin Fields and the Bears. How bad can one unit get? Bad enough for me to pick Zach Wilson as a DFS sleeper and the 1-3 Jets as a best moneyline bet on the road. Robert Saleh said he is unleashing the beast that is Breece Hall, so lightning will crash at Mile High like an early-90s grunge video (click the link, you can't NOT watch that video).
As for the Jets defense, it's as good as ever with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed shutting down wideouts, Quinnen Williams terrorizing QBs, and both Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley racking up tackles. Russell Wilson got away with a lot against Chicago last week — he won't survive this weekend against Saleh's Jets. We're backing Gang Green to make us some green this Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jets 20, Broncos 17
Other Week 5 moneylines we like: Packers (-105) at Raiders; Steelers (+170) vs. Ravens; Texans (+105) at Falcons
Best NFL over/under bets Week 5
Rams UNDER 22.5 points at Eagles (+100)
We're intrigued by the Rams' UNDER heading into enemy territory on the opposite coast, especially considering Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams both enter the weekend banged up and we don't know exactly how much Cooper Kupp will be featured in his first week off the IR. The Eagles defense may not be as dominant as it was 10 months ago during Philly's Super Bowl run, but it's still a pretty harrowing front-seven to face on the road. We kind of like the UNDER on the game (50.5), but we really like the UNDER for the visiting team.
Other Week 5 over/unders we like: Cardinals vs. Bengals OVER 44.5; Broncos vs. Jets OVER 43.5; Jaguars-Bills (London) UNDER 48.5
MORE BETTING:
Pick'em, Survivor Pool Picks | Jaguars-Falcons | Cowboys-Patriots | Jets-Chiefs
Best NFL player prop bets Week 5
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James Conner, RB, and Josh Dobbs, QB, Cardinals vs. Bengals — Conner OVER 60.5 rushing yards and Dobbs OVER 20.5 completions
How about two for the price of one!? The Bengals are a complete train wreck, with Joe Burrow clearly not right and Tee Higgins most likely missing at least this game with a fractured rib. The Titans demolished Cincy 27-3 last week, and this Cardinals team has looked vastly better than Tennessee through one month of play. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing have instilled new hope in the desert, with a huge Week 3 win over Dallas and a respectable showing against the 49ers last week.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
That 49ers tilt marked the first game in which Conner failed to notch 62 rushing yards — he finished with 52 on just 11 carries. But that's the most rushing yards San Francisco has allowed to a back all season, tied with Kyren Williams (who needed 14 carries to get there in Week 2). Conner amassed 262 rushing yards across Arizona's first three games, a stretch that included the strong front-sevens of the Cowboys and Commanders. He will demolish this OVER against Cincinnati, which has surrendered 445 ground yards on just 91 carries (111.3 per game, 4.9 per rush).
As for Dobbs, people are sleeping on this kid. He has honestly looked better than his counterpart in this game, Joe Burrow, and by a country mile. He just completed 28-of-41 passes for 265 yards and two TDs. He has a completion rate of 70.7 and zero interceptions across four games. His athleticism helps keep plays alive, and his legs keep drives alive. The dude has completed 21 passes in three of four games, and we think this one will be close (the Bengals are -3 on BetMGM). Bet Dobbs to hit this OVER with ease, and prepare for the 'QB controversy' narrative once Kyler Murray comes off the PUP list.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs at Vikings — OVER 76.5 receiving yards
The Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift love story has garnered 10 times more hype than the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs have this season, but this should be the week that Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and company retake the narrative.
The Vikings' defense has been wretched as usual, allowing 68 first downs over the past three weeks and surrendering 445 passing yards the last time they faced a strong passing offense (Week 3 vs. the Chargers). Minnesota has also allowed the sixth-most yards to pass-catchers lined up in the slot — where Kelce feasts — and the last above-average tight end Kevin O'Connell's squad 's squad faced, Dallas Goedert, caught 6-of-7 targets.
Kelce has 17 catches and multiple TDs across his three games this season, but he has yet to eclipse 70 receiving yards in a game this season. We have him going for closer to 100 than 77 this Sunday, and cruising into the Minneapolis sunset with his 750 million-dollar lady (come on, did you really think you'd make it out of an NFL best bets piece without Swiftie mentions!?).
