The 2023 NFL season has officially begun, and tens of millions of sports fans and bettors have already placed wagers for the Week 1 games. As we will all season, we will be highlighting our favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets before the weekend begins.
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Don't worry — we will be holding ourselves accountable every step of the way. Each Friday, we will reveal our win-loss record for the previous week, as well as our updated record on the season.
NFL WEEK 1 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictions | Best props
Sports betting doesn't need to be considered gambling. With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, it becomes far less of a gamble and much more of an investment. That's why we don't just call this a hobby of ours; rather, it's a second job that allows us to punch in while we're sitting on our couch.
This weekend's slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let's go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 1: Against the spread
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Jaguars (-4.5) at Colts
How quickly oddsmakers seem to forget that the Jaguars nearly made the AFC Championship less than nine months ago. Now, Doug Pederson's squad looks even more primed for success behind Pro Bowl QB Trevor Lawrence and a litany of weapons at the skill positions. Even with this game taking place in Indy, this line seems generous to a Colts squad coming off a four-win season, starting a rookie QB (Anthony Richardson), and missing its best player (Jonathan Taylor).
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is stacked on offense. Joining Travis Etienne Jr. in the backfield will be stud third-rounder Tank Bigsby and veteran power back D'Ernest Johnson. Joining Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram in the Jags' pass-catching corps will be Calvin Ridley, who can finally return to the field after a lengthy suspension for gambling.
All that presents quite the challenge for Richardson, who we like as a fantasy QB but don't expect to keep up against formidable offenses this early in his NFL career. The Colts' defense also concerns us, as PFF ranks their secondary the second-worst in the league after Indy surrendered the fourth-most points last season (25.1 per game). The Jaguars should have a very special 2023, and it all kicks off with a commanding victory at Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jaguars 30, Colts 23
Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Rams
Another squad that seems to be underrated going into Week 1 is the Seahawks, who arguably improved over the offseason after going 9-8 in 2022. Geno Smith, who led the NFL in completion percentage last season (69.9), now gets second-year back Kenneth Walker III (hopefully) back healthy, two solid rookies in RB Zach Charbonnet and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and of course his elite wideout tandem of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Rams, meanwhile, got considerably worse since finishing 5-12 last season. They traded away stud cornerback Jalen Ramsey, leaving them with a secondary that PFF ranks last in the NFL. Former All-Pro Cooper Kupp (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 1 and could very well land on the IR. Three-time DPOY Aaron Donald and Super Bowl-winning QB Matthew Stafford are now 32 and 35, respectively, and coming off injury-plagued seasons. In the words of Mad Men's Pete Campbell, "Not great, Bob!"
We project Seattle to win this one by at least a touchdown, but if you're the more cautious type you can trim the Seahawks' spread down to -3 at the cost of some juice (-145). If you have a promotional odds boost handy, that would be a good scenario in which to deploy it.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Seahawks 27, Rams 20
Other Week 1 spreads we like: Cowboys (-3) at Giants; Buccaneers (+5.5) at Vikings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 1
Bills (-145) at Jets
I faded the Jets this offseason more aggressively than a Will Smith flat-top in the early 90s. There's simply no way Gang Green moves from the NFL's fourth-worst scoring offense and eighth-worst total offense to a Super Bowl contender just because of the addition of Aaron Rodgers. The guy's 40, weirder than ever, and coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career as a starter.
Rodgers is now expected to duel with Josh Allen and the Bills, who have gone 37-12 over the past three years and won three straight AFC East titles? Nah, I'm not buying it. The Jets have a fantastic defense, and Garrett Wilson might be one of the 15 most talented wideouts in the NFL. But Buffalo has so many weapons from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, and Rodgers has a banged-up Breece Hall and questionable chemistry with his new squad.
I'm probably betting the Bills -2.5 ATS, if I'm being honest — but for now, I'll lock in their -145 ML for safety purposes since the game's at the Meadowlands and underdogs typically have insane cover rates in early-season prime-time games. Allen, Stefon Diggs, and company will have the last laugh.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 24, Jets 22
Bengals (-130) at Browns
Our friends at BetQL say 63 percent of the sharp money has gone Cleveland's way in this one, even though the QL model gives Cincinnati a 63-percent chance of winning. BetMGM's betting insights reveal a similar trend, with the Browns commanding 59 percent of the ML handle but just 43 percent of the +2.5 spread. Naturally, we're going against the grain and picking the Bengals to win outright in the Dawg Pound.
Joe Burrow embarks on his third full NFL season with the Bengals' elite trio of weapons: wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and running back Joe Mixon. Cincinnati's offensive line has steadily improved along the way, with PFF giving it an 11-spot jump in its o-line rankings from 2022 to this season, thanks in large part to the signing of stud tackle Orlando Brown Jr. The Bengals also crushed the 2023 NFL Draft, improving multiple areas on both sides of the ball.
Burrow just keeps getting better, having nearly led Cincinnati to a second-straight Super Bowl appearance if not for a triumphant run by a gimpy Patrick Mahomes. Burrow seems head-and-shoulders better than Deshaun Watson at this point in their respective careers. Watson managed a completion rate of just 58.2 percent and an interception rate of 2.9 percent in the six games he played last year, both among the worst in the NFL. These QBs — and the teams around them — seem to be headed in opposite directions.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bengals 27, Browns 23
Other Week 1 moneylines we like: 49ers (-130) at Steelers; Saints (-155) vs. Titans
Best NFL over/under bets Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins: UNDER 51 (-110)
Everyone in the world probably expects this one to be a shootout, but there exists plenty of potential for this one to underwhelm the masses offensively. For one, look at the average Week 1 total last season: 39.6 points. The UNDER dominates early in the season, especially with totals set north of 50 points.
We also must look at the simple fact that Tua Tagovailoa has been less than stellar on the road throughout his NFL career, with an 8-9 record away from Hard Rock compared to 15-4 at home. Of the Dolphins' eight losses last season, seven came in away games, and Miami scored 17 or fewer points in four of those seven road losses.
The Fins' D may keep Miami in this one, but we're not expecting an explosion of points. Justin Herbert and the Chargers opened last season against the Raiders, a much worse defense than this Dolphins squad, and managed a modest 24-19 victory. This one should go higher than 43 points, but we don't think it will sniff 52.
MORE CHARGERS-DOLPHINS: Betting preview and best bets
Saints OVER 22.5 points vs. Titans (-110)
Here's a little betting hack for you: You don't always have to bet the over or under on the game itself. Instead, you can opt to bet on either team going over or under a certain amount. In this case, we like Derek Carr and the Saints offense to go off on the Titans' feeble secondary, but we don't quite know what to expect from Tennessee on the offensive side. The answer: Just pound the Saints' OVER 22.5!
The Titans improved their defense with the addition of former Buccaneer Sean Murphy-Bunting, but this unit needed a lot more than just one tweak. Tennessee ranked last in passing yards allowed last season (274.8 per game), and it got even more awful when it hit the road (290.8 per game). Carr and his new favorite receivers, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, are going to incinerate the Titans like my daughter when she first made s'mores.
MORE BETTING:
Survivor Pool Picks | Giants-Cowboys | Bears-Packers | 49ers-Steelers
Best NFL player prop bets Week 1
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Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers vs. Dolphins — OVER 33.5 receiving yards
Ekeler has become one of the best playmaking running backs in the NFL, capable of gashing every defense both on the ground and through the air. But it's his pass-catching game in particular that I'm honed in on this Sunday, as he should be able to best 33 receiving yards by halftime.
Ek averaged 42.5 receiving yards per game in 2022, and he exceeded 33 yards a whopping 12 times, including six of the eight games the Bolts played at SoFi Stadium. One of those games was against Miami, who let Ekeler catch all eight of his targets for 59 yards last December.
The Dolphins ranked among the bottom eight in the NFL in both catches (93) and receiving yards (700) surrendered to RBs last season. That translates to 41.2 yards per game, right around Ekeler's per-game average in each of the past three seasons. I'm all-in on this OVER in Los Angeles this Sunday afternoon.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Nico Collins, WR, Texans @ Ravens — OVER 3.5 receptions (Piva)
One of our top sleepers for the 2023 fantasy season, Collins could be in for a breakout campaign of epic proportions. The Texans upgraded at QB in a major way when they picked C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick, and the rookie has already developed chemistry with his new No. 1 receiver.
Considering Brandin Cooks headed northbound to Dallas this offseason, Collins' volume should be similar to what he enjoyed between Weeks 10-13 last season — nine targets per game — before missing the Texan's last five games due to a foot injury. Speaking of foot injuries, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey had foot surgery last month and will more than likely miss Week 1. Smash this OVER.
