All-time great offense bad omen for Falcons entering NFC championship game

David Steele

All-time great offense bad omen for Falcons entering NFC championship game image

Matt Ryan and the Falcons are running (and throwing) against history. It might be just trivial history, or coincidental history, but the numbers say what they say.

The Falcons who host Sunday's NFC championship game are tied for eighth all time in scoring offense over a 16-game NFL season with 540 points. (The league has played 16 games since 1978.) None of the other eight teams won the Super Bowl. Five of them never made it that far, and two of them were knocked out in this round of the playoffs. The three that made it averaged 10.3 points among them in the big game.

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Clearly, that’s a tradition the Falcons want to break, and one that was upheld just three years ago by the 2013 Broncos team that set the all-time single-season record; however, the one common theme for those elite eight’s fate may be something the Falcons might not have to confront.

More often than not, those teams were denied by superior defenses, including ones that are among the best in NFL history, or at least include players on that level. That was the case with Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Super Bowl 48, when they ran into the Seahawks, got shut out for three quarters and went down 43-8.

If that obstacle looms in front of the Falcons, it’s not obvious yet. Even though the Seahawks were diminished by Earl Thomas’s absence, in last week’s divisional playoff they still were loaded with several of the same players who won the aforementioned Super Bowl over the Broncos. The Falcons smoked them for 422 yards and 36 points (points set up by or scored by their defense included, of course).

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The Packers, clearly, are vulnerable on defense, as they proved in the Falcons’ 33-32 win in October (as well as last week in their narrow win over the Cowboys, and pretty much every game they’ve played this season).

As for possible Super Bowl opponents, the Steelers have stepped up a lot on defense during their current nine-game run, and finished in the top half in most major categories and 10th in points. The offenses they've faced in the playoffs, though — the Dolphins and Chiefs — aren’t in the same ballpark as the Falcons.

The Patriots, as it has been noted, led the NFL in scoring defense. Five Super Bowls since the 1970 merger have pitted No. 1 offense against No. 1 defense. The defense has won four times. Super Bowl 48 was the first such meeting in 23 years.

One more omen worth considering: Last season, the 15-1 Panthers became the 16th team in the 16-game era to score at least 500 points in a season. They lost to the Broncos in the Super Bowl.

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Here is the full list of the teams that have scored as many points as, or more than, the Falcons in one season, and what happened in the playoffs.

2013 Broncos, 606 points: Lost Super Bowl 48 to the Seahawks 43-8. Manning, for what it’s worth, won the MVP that year, and for obvious reasons — he set records for passing yards and touchdown passes. But they fell behind 36-0, thanks in part to the safety on the first play and Malcolm Smith’s pick-six late in the first half.

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2007 Patriots, 589: Lost Super Bowl 42 to the Giants 17-14. Pretty memorable on several counts, including thwarting the perfect-season quest. The Giants defenders played the game of their lives, and the Patriots didn’t even get to 14 until 2:42 left in the game.

2011 Packers, 560: Lost in the NFC divisional round to the Giants 37-20. The defending champion Packers went 15-1 and were as overwhelming a favorite to win it all as any team in the last decade (yes, including the perfect Patriots). The Giants took them out in Lambeau in their first playoff game, helped by a Hail Mary touchdown to end the first half.

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2012 Patriots, 557: Lost the AFC championship game to the Ravens 28-13. The Ravens not only avenged their loss a year before on the same field in the same round, they shut the Patriots out in the second half, proved that the previous week’s upset of the Broncos wasn’t a fluke, and went on to win Super Bowl 47. It was Ray Lewis’s last run before retirement.

1998 Vikings, 556: Lost the NFC championship game to the Falcons 30-27 in overtime. Dennis Green’s death last year brought back bitter memories of this loss to many. An unstoppable offense failed to clinch the game in regulation when Gary Anderson had one of the most improbable field-goal misses ever.

2011 Saints, 547: Lost in the NFC divisional round to the 49ers 36-32. Two years removed from a Super Bowl win, New Orleans had most of its pieces, Drew Brees most of all, still in place. Brees set the passing yardage record Manning broke two years later. The Jim Harbaugh-Alex Smith 49ers won this with a touchdown with 14 seconds left.

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1983 Washington, 541: Lost Super Bowl 18 to the Raiders 38-9. Another defending champion that rolled through the season and looked unbeatable until the final game. The Raiders gave them a thorough beatdown in every phase of the game, but the LA defense’s handling of John Riggins, Joe Theismann and the receivers was overwhelming.

2000 Rams, 540: Lost in the NFC wild-card round to the Saints 31-28. Year 1 of the Mike Martz/post-Dick Vermeil era, after The Greatest Show on Turf had won the Super Bowl. Overall, they took a step back, but they rebounded with an even greater season the next year … which ended in the Super Bowl against the heavy-underdog Patriots.

David Steele