Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris is facing a crucial season for his career in 2024 as he enters the final year of his rookie contract after the team declined his fifth-year option in May.
Harris looked like he was going to be a star after an impressive rookie season in 2021 that saw him finish as RB3 overall in PPR formats. However, he's seen a decline in the last two years, finishing as RB14 and RB23 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, according to Fantasy Pros.
Part of the reason for his decline has been the emergence of fellow running back Jaylen Warren, who has cut into Harris' workload the previous two years and even sported a better overall ranking in PPR in 2023 as RB22.
Warren saw his touches go up from 105 in 2022 to 210 in 2023, and he had career-best numbers in rushing yards (784), receiving yards (310) and touchdowns (four).
Meanwhile, Harris' touches have gone from 381 in Year 1, to 313 and 284 the previous two years, respectively. He saw his lowest career totals in rushing attempts (255) and receptions (29) last season.
Harris decline isn't just because of Warren, though. He hasn't shown great vision and the Steelers' offensive line hasn't been good in the run game. Also, defenses haven't had to respect Pittsburgh's quarterbacks, allowing them to stack the box against Harris and the Steelers' rushing attack.
Najee Harris fantasy football outlook
Ceiling: High-end RB2
Floor: Flex
The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, who loves to run the ball and utilize play-action. As a result, the Steelers may end up utilizing the run game even more after finishing ninth in rushing attempts in 2023.
Harris would obviously benefit from that. In addition, the Steelers have made a few changes to the offensive line with the draft selections of center Zach Frazier and right tackle Troy Fautanu, both of whom will hopefully improve things.
Last but certainly not least, getting rid of Kenny Pickett in favor of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields should provide an upgrade at quarterback. If so, defenses won't be able to stack the box as much, and Harris could end up getting more goal-line opportunities with a more potent offense.
The biggest concern for Harris is the presence of Warren. It's possible the Steelers will want to see more out of Warren with Harris set to hit free agency in 2025, and that could further cut into Harris' workload. However, Warren is highly unlikely to dominate the backfield and Harris will remain the top option.
Jaylen Warren typical hamstring injury — couple weeks recovery. Could be ready for season opener
— Gerry Dulac (@gerrydulac) August 19, 2024
At worst, Harris should see around the 16.7 touches per game he had in 2023, but an increased emphasis on the running game could lead to even more work. The workload potential in and of itself warrants at least flex consideration.
If everything goes according to plan with the quarterbacks and offensive line and Harris remains the lead back, it isn't crazy to think he could reach low-end RB1 numbers. But expecting everything to go perfectly is a risky proposition.
Harris is much more likely to settle in as an RB2 or flex and should be targeted in the fifth or sixth round of 12-team drafts.
