We're counting down the days until Mike Evans' drops in 2015 become a funny anecdote; until the three touchdowns are anomalous.
It still seems crazy that Evans and Jameis Winston couldn't hit the end-zone fade at least a couple times last year, given how easy it has looked at times this preseason.
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The skill set and situation are in place to vault Evans into the DeAndre Hopkins/Odell Beckham Jr. tier in 2016, or whatever we're calling the group of young receivers just below Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and A.J. Green.
A unique blend of explainable elements and variance produced a memory of his sophomore slump that belies a player on track — having just turned 23 — to join the discussion of the league's most valuable receivers.
Don't assume red-zone usage will stay the same.
Evans' opportunity should expand despite pacing the team with 148 targets last year, via Pro Football Reference, good for 10th in the league and a historically high number for his lack of trips to paydirt. But PFR ranked him just 28th in targets from inside the 10, reminding of that night the Bucs targeted Evans 17 times in St. Louis without a single red-zone look.
Even with these limiting contextual factors, it seems bonkers Evans didn't score more. NumberFire's JJ Zachariason used the lens of Net Expected Points to profile Evans as the greatest candidate for positive regression at receiver, the landslide leader in the difference between expected scoring (8 TDs) and touchdowns scored (3) at the position in 2015. Vincent Jackson, who missed six games last season and turns 34 in January, returns, along with all significant parts of the supporting cast at skill positions. The prospect of a healthy V-Jax limiting Evans' role seems dubious.
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Don't assume pass volume will stay the same.
Coach Dirk Koetter oversaw a Bucs offense that finished 24th in pass-play percentage last season, via TeamRankings.com, but there are significant reasons why this may not carry over. Koetter's Atlanta offenses from 2012-2014 ranked seventh, first and third in pass-play percentage. Then Koetter left an offense led by Matt Ryan to manage a rookie quarterback destined by draft status for immediate playing time. Add rookie starters at guard and left tackle. Add a preseason injury to the starting right tackle.
It makes sense to take pressure off the young quarterback as he learns and dial up the run.
Greg Olson's Oakland offense notched the highest pass rate in 2014 after the Raiders drafted Derek Carr and plugged him right into the lineup, but the rookie would finish 38th in PFF quarterback grades. Kyle Shanahan's 2011 Washington offense ranked fifth in pass-rate before dropping to 31st for RG3's rookie year, then jumping back up to 16th in 2013. OC tendencies can fluctuate when planning for a rookie quarterback, and 2015 may possibly have been just that.
Don't assume catch rate will stay the same.
Evans' 50 percent catch rate ranked lowest among the top 45 most-targeted players in 2015. Evans' NFC-leading drop rate did not help, and he's an interesting candidate for a bounceback with drop variance. Average depth of target will also correlate with catch rate at a certain point: Only Allen Robinson topped Evans' aDOT among receivers with more than 100 targets, via Pro Football Focus data, and Robinson notched a catch rate toward Evans' low end of the spectrum at 53 percent.
Evans does have the strength, length and route-running precision to present Winston options quickly against a variety of looks, which should create more high-percentage opportunities and consistent production. The following came against press coverage to convert on 4th-and-2 this preseason.
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Evans endured a dropoff in yards per target (9.1 to 8.3) and touchdowns (12 to 3) last season but actually improved as a route-runner and technician, according to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception findings. The 6-5, 23-year-old is only getting better at getting open in various ways, though some statistics cloud this progress. It's also hard to underestimate the effect of losing precious time for developing chemistry, like when Evans injured his hamstring during preseason of Winston's rookie season.
Now there will be a full season and preseason under their belts, as the two look more in sync this August. This was on display Friday, when Winston marshalled the offense out of no-huddle, called the right audible and connected with Evans.
Don't assume Winston will be the same.
Winston certainly played a role in Evans' sophomore slump, but experience should only help a cerebral quarterback like Winston exploit advantageous looks for the offense more often.
"When I'm able to get him the football, that's what happens," Winston said hours after the throw above, via the Tampa Bay Times. "I missed a lot of opportunities with Mike last year on deep-ball throws, and the two passes I threw deep to him (Friday) gave him a chance. That's what he does. He's a deep-threat guy."
Added Evans: "They busted coverage. Jameis saw it before I saw it. That's why I had to turn around and catch it."
Accuracy, pocket presence and processing reads in a pro-style offense were considered major positives in Winston's draft profile. He struggled mightily in each category last season. Cian Fahey's Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue (must-read) gave Winston the lowest accuracy mark among passers charted in 2015. Fahey also does a great dive into Winston's rookie year flashes of brilliance, concerning inconsistency and high ceiling, for Football Outsiders.
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The Bucs asked an absurd amount from their rookie quarterback. Winston won PFF's Offensive Rookie of the Year award and also missed plenty of opportunities to hit an open Evans, while Evans battled through an early injury and let 15 catchable balls hit the turf.
This leaves incredible room for not only growth, but immediate dividends.
@Pat_Thorman @SigmundBloom @RumfordJohnny @Rotoworld_FB should hit more of the 1st one and miss fewer of the 2nd https://t.co/X1fyAKIFCr
— Thomas Emerick (@ThomasEmerick) June 22, 2016
Oh my, @Jaboowins.
— NFL (@NFL) August 27, 2016
That is one beautiful throw. 😍 #CLEvsTB https://t.co/cOW3agUVXt