With the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons shocked the world.
Even with a $180 million quarterback in tow, the Falcons decided to take their quarterback of the future in former Washington Huskie, Michael Penix, Jr. On draft night, everyone was shocked. Everyone was taken aback. General manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris had to defend this unprecedented selection ad nauseum in the draft presser that followed.
In that press conference, Morris and Fontenot were doing everything they could to reiterate to Falcons fans that this 24-year-old kid will become the face of this franchise. Whether in two or five years, Atlanta will have a decade of stability at quarterback that they haven't had since Matt Ryan was traded.
In this exercise, we look at how viable a claim that is. We dive into how much of a fit Penix will be in a projection of offensive coordinator Zac Robinson's offense.
Positives
Penix's ability In-Structure
One of Penix's superpowers is making sure that when things were right, and they were right a lot at Washington (419 dropbacks and 415 attempts while being kept clean, according to PFF), he took advantage. Penix had the second-highest offensive grade of any quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft class and tied for third-highest when kept clean. He had the most yards (3,834), touchdowns (30) and the most big-time throws (28) when kept clean.
Penix can pick you apart with his arm, which we'll discuss later, and with his mind. Penix is known for processing information quickly and using his football IQ pre-snap to obliterate a defense post-snap.
Had to ask Michael Penix Jr. to break down one of my favorite passes I've ever seen in college football. Hearing his process and what he's thinking pre and post-snap was so cool. Shoutout to @PaniniAmerica pic.twitter.com/Qx2OFa7P8u
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) February 10, 2024
The Falcons have made a point to make their roster as quarterback-friendly as they possibly could for whenever the answer at the position arose. With Penix, they found a quarterback who could maximize the environment given to him and run the system as it is supposed to.
Top-Tier Arm Talent
Penix is seen by many as the most natural thrower of the football in this class. Morris made it known that when they went to Seattle to see him, they fell in love with the way the ball flew out of his hand.
When watching the film, this same ability jumps off the screen. The velocity that he can put on the ball, the spin on the spiral as it flies through the air, Rich Eisen called it "The NFL Films" ball because of how aesthetically pleasing it looks out of his hand.
Penix's arm talent drew in Morris and Robinson because they had seen what that kind of talent could do. In Los Angeles, Stafford was able to make throws that not many quarterbacks in NFL history, let alone those that are active, couldn't make on the way to their Super Bowl in 2021.
Now, the Falcons have their semi-version of Stafford in Penix and hope that same arm talent, and the confidence that comes with it, will lead Atlanta to success.
Here he is ripping it down the sideline. He can sling it pic.twitter.com/uyqnEEvdLR
— Dustin Mosher (@Dustin_Mosher) August 4, 2023
Mental Makeup
Four season-ending injuries in four years.
Most people see that and think of the physical toll that will take on a player and how they will never be the same athlete. For Penix, as he stated in his Player's Tribune letter to GMs before the draft, it's the emotional toll that he's endured that those watching him should focus on.
The mental trauma that comes from these kinds of injuries can be debilitating. There's a good chance that you won't see the same caliber of athlete ever again after them.
With Penix, he chose to channel that adversity into a two-year stint of Washington football that resulted in a National Championship berth. Penix has the mental makeup of a franchise quarterback, he can take the hits and continue to march on. As Fontenot would say, he fits the ethos they are trying to build in Flowery Branch.
Negatives
Inconsistency
One of the problems with Penix, which is probably where the plan for sitting him for two years to develop comes from, is his inconsistencies in his mechanics. These inconsistencies are heightened significantly when he is under pressure.
Penix has a great arm, with that arm comes a ton of confidence that he can put it virtually anywhere that he wants. That confidence Is a gift and a curse.
There are times on his film where he will look for the big-time throw, as opposed to following the progression and getting to the correct read. There are also times when he will move off his spot and won't correctly reset his feet and almost will the ball to the spot using only his arm.
Again, he has great arm talent and it sometimes works for him, but there are times when this leads to inaccuracies and balls sailing on him unnecessarily.
This is around the time when I am obligated to remind you that Penix was a six-year college player and will be a 24-year-old rookie. It is a worry that these types of mechanical issues may be too ingrained in his style of play to eliminate. Accuracy is a hard thing to fix, and it will take time to fix those issues for Penix.
Michael Penix Jr has a rocket arm and has a Fastball with an attitude.
— The Podfather (@TheBurgundyZone) January 4, 2024
Sometimes Michael is inconsistent in Touch or Loft to make crucial throws. (Hard ask just sayin) #HTTC pic.twitter.com/DtAK5ayVnD
Lack of Out-of-Structure Creativity
In Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer's piece detailing how the Falcons came to draft Penix eighth overall, there is a note that once Penix ran his 4.5 40-yard dash, Assistant GM Kyle Smith told Fontenot "this guy is gonna go quick."
Unfortunately, Penix isn't seen using that top-tier speed all that often on his film. Last season he had eight scrambles on his over 575+ dropbacks. Whether it's his injury history or his lack of creativity, Penix doesn't add much value once he is outside of the pocket. His 26 throwaways when pressured were the most of any quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft.
Conclusion
Penix is learning from the perfect quarterback in that room for his development. Kirk Cousins is the ultimate system quarterback. When things are going well, he can make magic happen, a bet that the Falcons are relying on for this experiment to work. Cousins has been a surgeon from the pocket for years and has a chance to bestow some of that magic to Penix.
Overall, Penix has all the makings of a franchise quarterback. He has the arm, he has the intangibles, he is capable of leading a team to a lot of success.
Do I agree with the Falcons' decision to take him at eight? Not necessarily, but only because I haven't seen it work. This is unprecedented territory that the Falcons have decided to put themselves in and it will take some time to see if it will pay off.
But if it was going to work with anyone, having someone with the mental fortitude of Penix is a great way to start.
