Ryan Tannehill has been the face of the Dolphins ever since they drafted him with the eighth pick in 2012. He's the only quarterback since Dan Marino to start two consecutive seasons as Miami's unquestioned starter. After a 2016 playoff appearance in coach Adam Gase’s first season, led by Tannehill’s first winning record as a starter, Dolphins fans, coaches and executives had real optimism about a consistent playoff roster.
Tannehill’s injury last week was supposed to put an end to that hope. Instead, it opened the door for Miami to "fall upward" as a franchise at their most important position with its signing of Jay Cutler.
Cutler, 34, is more than a mere replacement for an injured quarterback. He’s a short-term upgrade that opens the door for Miami to have a real conversation about Tannehill at the helm of their franchise retool.
MARVEZ: Gase risks it all with Cutler
Vertical passing: Turning DeVante Parker into Alshon Jeffery
Since his time at Texas A&M, Tannehill has struggled as a vertical passer. While he has made up for it with accurate mid-field passing and poise in pocket adjustments/timing throw efficiency in West Coast offense opportunities, he has never been able to properly utilize the perimeter, vertical threats Miami has had during his tenure.
Conversely, Cutler has never seen a vertical pass he didn’t consider making, regardless of his foot positioning, game situation or defender alignment. And while the trait notoriously has gotten Cutler into trouble, as Bears fans can attest, he was at his most efficient in 2015 under Gase.
In 2015, Cutler threw an interception on just 2.3 percent of his throws while throwing 4.4 passes over 20 yards per game, finishing in the top 10 in both categories in the NFL.
Tannehill once again was limited in his vertical passes and was less efficient and productive within the same offense.
The prime beneficiary of Cutler’s vertical upside is DeVante Parker, Miami’s 2016 first-round pick who has sparked ample excitement in Dolphins camp. While Parker’s downfield-stretching potential might have been limited with Tannehill, Cutler has proven an ability to maximize big-bodied perimeter receivers.
In Chicago, Cutler helped make a household name out of Brandon Marshall, but his trust and relationship with Alshon Jeffery in 2015 should draw the most parallels and optimism for Parker.
Parker, set to be Miami’s starter on the outside and potentially take over for Jarvis Landry as the team’s most important passing-game weapon, was always going to be a bigger part of Miami’s offense. With Cutler, Miami should be even more confident in Parker’s perimeter impact.
Pressure passing: Veteran Cutler is an upgrade
Tannehill has developed into a highly efficient short- and mid-range passer. That has treated him and the Miami offense well, particularly this past season, in generating quality drives and utilizing Miami's growing number of weapons. But Tannehill still has not emerged as game-winning quarterback in terms of third downs and in the fourth quarter — not one with whom Dolphins executives, coaches and fans should be comfortable.
Cutler’s recklessness is well known and has become his unfortunate brand as a quarterback. But in 2015, especially, Cutler proved to be in control and quite effective in pressure situations. He completed nearly 50 percent of third down opportunities in the air, generating 4.6 first downs with his arm per game (among the highest in the NFL that season).
Both numbers are stark upgrades from those of Tannehill, whose 2016 season was his best in both categories over his five-year NFL career.
Tannehill has struggled late in games. Last year, in games that were decided by four points or less, he had arguably his four worst performances of the season. Late in games, Tannehill, on film, hesitates, limits his window to quick reads and is far too susceptible to sacks.
Of course, sacks in the fourth quarter might as well be interceptions, as they stifle drives and almost always result in an eventual punt.
Tannehill was sacked on nearly 10 percent of his passing attempts in the fourth quarter in 2016. In fact, that’s his career average of sacks per fourth quarter. It wasn’t just one season.
Cutler is the opposite. The GIF below shows why his gun-slinging mentality, pocket navigation and fearless confidence opens up opportunities downfield in late-game situations.
While Cutler's interceptions tend to go up in the fourth quarter, so do downfield strikes like this. Interceptions are a remarkably frustrating way to end a late-game drive, but Cutler, unlike Tannehill, at least gives his team a chance to convert fourth-quarter drives with his arm, instead of from the flat of his back.
Miami’s potential pivot at quarterback
Tannehill will turn 30 during the 2018 offseason. He will have played five full NFL seasons (not including 2017) without having proved he’s a top-16 quarterback in the NFL. Below is a look at the remainder of his contract.
Tannehill has $53 million remaining on his deal, but none of it guaranteed. If Miami were to move on from him after this season, their only dead cap money would be his prorated signing bonus, which is $2.3 million for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Most importantly, the Dolphins have just a little over $3 million in cap space in 2018, and Landry is set to be a free agent.
Cutler’s $10 million contract is the third lowest salary for 2017 of any quarterback not on a rookie contract. The only quarterbacks below him are Josh McCown of the Jets and Brian Hoyer of the 49ers.
MORE: NFL's highest-paid players
Cutler’s next contract, should he earn it, can be structured similarly to that of Alex Smith, a deal that allows the team to get out after the second year with minimal cap hit. This lies under the premise that Cutler can play well enough and stay healthy, but changing out Tannehill’s bloated deal with Cutler’s team-friendly, short-term solution could ease Miami's 2018 cap concerns.
Plus, the Dolphins would need an established veteran to hold the fort while the team searches for a franchise quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft, one of the best classes in recent history.
Cutler is the NFL’s best bridge quarterback. He allows his current team to aim for a playoff berth while also giving them the opportunity to plan for the future at the position.
Cutler shouldn’t be viewed as a savior in Miami, which almost certainly won’t be a Super Bowl contender so long as Tom Brady refuses to retire. But Gase has proven his system works. His vision for the team can produce results, and the franchise should trust his direction.
Cutler is his guy and gives the Dolphins a better chance to win — and develop their most talented offensive weapon — in 2017.
But more importantly, Miami now can have the bigger discussions about Cutler, bridge quarterbacks, whether Tannehill is the quarterback they still want to build around and the direction of the franchise with Gase at the helm.