Madden Super Bowl prediction 2020: Can video game correct recent history with Super Bowl 54?

EA Sports' "Madden NFL" franchise has long been recognized for its above-average accuracy in predicting Super Bowl results.

Going back to 2004, "Madden" is 10 for 16 in picking a Super Bowl winner, although it has slipped in recent years after an astonishing early run (it has been wrong three out of the last four years). Still impressive is the fact that on multiple occasions the game has predicted the precise margin of victory or even the exact final score.

A trend has become evident, however, which must be considered when looking ahead to Super Bowl 54. The video game's simulation engine favors great offense over great defense, leading to its wildly inaccurate official prediction of Rams 30, Patriots 27.

In reality, the final score was 13-3 in favor of the Patriots, the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history.

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In 2019, 72 percent of simulations had the Rams beating the Patriots. To the credit of "Madden," the percentages were heavily weighted toward the Rams when they scored 30+ points as opposed to when they failed to do so. They often surpassed that mark in the simulation but scored only three points in reality.

Another glaring miss occurred with Super Bowl 48 when "Madden" believed the historically great offense of the Broncos would prevail over the historically great defense of the Seahawks. The latter ended up winning, 43-8.

Madden Super Bowl prediction 2020

Keeping those trends in mind, it is no surprise that the Chiefs are heavy favorites over the 49ers, according to "Madden NFL 20." We ran more than 100 simulations, with the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl 68 percent of the time. While Kansas City is the slight betting favorite, indicating a 54 percent chance of victory, "Madden" gives the Chiefs a much larger edge over San Francisco.

There are other flaws to consider in the simulations. The engine does not do a good job of representing any type of strategic game plan.

The 49ers had great success on the ground in some of the sims, but passed heavily in others. Without any real splitting of running back carries, Raheem Mostert barely even saw the field. "Madden" isn't going to run the ball all game like San Francisco did in the NFC championship game even if that would prove to be the most effective tactic. That puts them at another disadvantage within the video game. 

It would not be a surprise to see the 49ers prevail and again expose Madden's bias toward offense. The target for San Francisco should be to hold the Chiefs to 24 points or less. The 49ers won 59 percent of the games in which they did just that. When Kansas City went over 24, that number drops to just 12 percent.

The keys to success for each team are true to the formulas that got them to the Super Bowl. The 49ers did better when they dominated on the ground and when the defense produced more sacks and turnovers. The Chiefs offense would often jump out to early leads and use big plays on both offense and defense to stomp out any chance of a comeback.

Madden projects Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are the most likely to win the game's MVP award. Should the 49ers come out on top, it'll be Jimmy Garoppolo or Nick Bosa. 

"Madden NFL 20" composite prediction: Chiefs 26, 49ers 22

Madden Super Bowl predictions history

The "Madden NFL" franchise has given an official prediction for the Super Bowl every year since 2004. The video game has picked the correct winner 10 times in 16 years, with a perfect prediction for Super Bowl 49. That's a 62.5 percent success rate.

Bryan Wiedey posts sports gaming news and analysis daily at Pastapadre.com, hosts the Press Row Podcast and can be reached on Twitter @Pastapadre.