The Redskins did Kirk Cousins a favor by trading for Alex Smith. The first domino of the quarterback market in 2018 has fallen, and the next one — signing Cousins in free agency — should fall right on the Vikings' heads.
Compared to Cousins, Smith in 2017 was the better, more successful West Coast passing QB. But Cousins offers a QB-needy Super Bowl contender like Minnesota much more upside next season and beyond.
STEELE: Washington finds its Cousins out
Cousins is out of Washington mainly because he wasn't as efficient as coach Jay Gruden wanted him to be in a system designed for efficiency. Cousins hasn't been able to shake his turnover habit in key games, leading to consistent double-digit interception totals as a starter.
Not only was Smith (a career-high 104.7) rated higher than Cousins (93.9) last season, but so was Case Keenum (98.3). In an area where Cousins usually stands out, yards per attempt, his most recent number (7.6) paled in comparison to Smith's (career-high 8.6) and was only slightly better than Keenum's (7.4).
With Smith now out of the equation for the Vikings, it comes down to how they want to spend their QB money. And Cousins is a better investment than Keenum.
Minnesota going the draft route makes little sense, because at No. 30 overall, there's no way it will get a prospect it can trust to start immediately. The Vikings are sitting on more than $56 million of projected salary-cap space in 2018, per OverTheCap.com, with a team close to winning it all.
Critics will point to Cousins' regression last season and the fact the Redskins went 4-17 overall in games against winning teams with him as their starter. But Cousins didn't just lose his offensive coordinator, Sean McVay. He also lost his top two veteran wideouts, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, without adequate replacements. His favorite red zone target, tight end Jordan Reed, couldn't swat the injury bug. With Rob Kelley, Chris Thompson and interior linemen getting hurt, too, the Redskins' running game became more putrid than it was the previous two seasons.
IYER: Exploring all of Cousins' best options
Former Redskins QB Joe Theismann always talks about how the position is the "most dependent" in the league. Where the elite quarterbacks separate — see Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees — is the fact that they're much less dependent than QBs even in the higher middle tier, boosting their teams more than their teams boost them.
In 2017, Smith remained in that more dependent category, along with Cousins and Keenum. As he says goodbye to Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Smith for now is inheriting the issues Cousins had. Pass protection from left tackle (Trent Williams) is the only upgrade for Smith on his new team.
Keenum woudln't have done such an admirable job in 2017 had the Vikings not invested in left tackle Riley Reiff and had strong targets in Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon. Cousins has the skill set to do more with that group, especially with Dalvin Cook returning as a dynamic feature back.
It will be easier for Cousins to cut down on turnovers in Minnesota because he won't get stuck passing too often situationally, as he'll have better offensive balance and defensive support. His arm strength and ability to push the ball downfield more effectively can take what Keenum did to a higher level. Heck, Cousins is even younger than Keenum. They both turn 30 this year.
The Vikings finally named John DeFilippo offensive coordinator to replace Pat Shurmur, who was instrumental in Keenum's success. Filippo, coming from coaching the Eagles' quarterbacks, will instage the West Coast offense, something Cousins has known his entire career through the Shahanans, Gruden and McVay.
Smith was wrongfully perceived as being the best fit for the Vikings, because he's 33 and a lot more pure West Coast at this point of his career (at 33) than Cousins is. But Smith's non-conservative season was a much bigger anomaly than Cousins' deviation. Cousins still has the much bigger arm and can be effectively aggressive for DeFilippo the way Carson Wentz and Nick Foles were under Doug Pederson.
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The Browns are set to be strong suitors for Cousins, too. They nave no limits on making him happy with the size of his contract, but they can't offer him what the Vikings can — a chance to do a complete 180 from his reputation as a non-winning quarterback.
When Smith's trade to Washington becomes official in March, Minnesota needs make a QB power move of its own. Cousins stands out as Plans A, B and C.
