Just three years after signing a contract worth $14.25 million per season that runs through 2020, Julio Jones is looking for a new deal. The wide receiver decided not to attend Falcons offseason workouts without an "updated" contract. He reportedly will not report to training camp, either.
When players are unhappy with their contracts, it usually is easy to pinpoint why. Either the player has outperformed his contract or the NFL market has changed. A player also could be in the final year of his contract and is worried something could derail his free agency the following season.
None of these situations apply to Jones.
Jones' stats look similar to what they were when he signed his latest extension. His contract still ranks high among wide receivers in many key metrics, including annual value per year (eighth), first-year cash (fourth), three-year cash flow (seventh) and guarantees (third). And because he has three contract years remaining and free agency is not a concern, it’s even more difficult to understand Jones' ultimate goal with a holdout.
While the WR market has not changed dramatically, there has been a small shift this offseason in which lesser players (Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams) signed contracts that carry a higher average per year than that of Jones. The Falcons’ star certainly can make the case that he is better than those players.
However, there are number of position markets on which better players end up trailing lesser players at some point during the course of their contracts. Jones’ quarterback Matt Ryan, for example, trailed Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco before the Atlanta passer signed his new deal.
MORE: NFL's highest-paid players
Some have suggested the fact that Jones’ guaranteed salary has run out could be at the center of his unhappiness. That concern could be sparked by the Cowboys’ recent release of Dez Bryant, who was cut with two non-guaranteed years remaining on his contract.
But for Jones, the Bryant saga should not be anything more than a minor consideration. Jones obviously will be on the team this year, so he may as well consider his $10.5 million salary guaranteed. There is virtually no chance Atlanta would release him from his $12.5 million salary next year, either, barring a catastrophic injury. Bryant was ineffective (at least to the level of his salary) for nearly three years before he was cut. Jones could survive one bad season.
There are only a couple reasons a Jones holdout would make sense. He could be looking to strike while the iron is hot and sneak in a raise, or he might want better cash flow in his contract.
Though Jones’ salaries over the next two years are not out of line with the market, both will be outside the top 10 among receivers. The Falcons are in win-now mode, and teams with that mindset want to avoid distractions. Atlanta just spent a mini-fortune on Ryan, and the last thing it wants is the QB’s top target absent from practice. So there could be a window for compromise.
Though there would be almost no precedent for an NFL team to give a big extension to a player who has three years left on his contract, there is precedent for modification to pacify a situation.
A few years ago, the Steelers moved $4 million in wide receiver Antonio Brown’s salary from later contract years to earlier contract years in order to avoid a holdout. It did not change the fundamentals of the contract; it simply altered the pay schedule. Last year, the Patriots added incentives to tight end Rob Gronkowski’s contract and gave him a chance to earn an additional $5.5 million. This year, the Broncos did something similar for cornerback Chris Harris.
The difference between those three players and Jones is the former three contracts were not in line with the market. Brown was being paid as a No. 2 receiver. Gronkowski had become a transcendent player. Harris had signed a terrible contract that paid him like a middle-tier No. 2 corner, and a run at free agency would have seen him earn millions more per season. Those teams had more logical reasons to make moves with their players than the Falcons have with Jones.
MORE NFL CONTRACTS:
NFL's worst deals | Biggest bargains
Still, Atlanta should be willing to make a move. The team could do something like what Pittsburgh did with Brown and move $2 million in Jones' salary from 2019 to 2018. Though the incentive route might be preferred, the Falcons are tight on salary cap space, and given Jones’ production, they would need to have the space this year for any incentives he could earn. They probably can throw in a partial guarantee for next year on his contract to make it look better.
If it turns out Jones is looking for significantly more money or an extension, then the Falcons should play hardball. Teams simply don’t renegotiate with players who have so many years remaining, and the Falcons have all the leverage — a season-long holdout would cost Jones $12.9 million.
The Falcons would be wise to avoid anything negative happening this summer and defer any real contract extensions to the future.