College football’s regular season ends this weekend, with rivalry week set to be one of the best in recent history. The biggest game, Michigan vs. Ohio State, will lead the national discussion because of it’s College Football Playoff ramifications.
Quarterback J.T. Barrett will be the key to Ohio State’s chances, but it’d be unwise to bet on him being anything more than what he has been all season.
MORE: Ranking the best games of rivalry weekend
Also in this week’s NFL draft spotlight, Colorado is one of the best teams in the country thanks to its quarterback. Plus, a small school pass rusher gave Alabama all it could handle.
J.T. Barrett won’t escape Michigan like he did Michigan State
After what began as a possible Heisman season, Barrett clearly has removed himself from that discussion. While his stat-stuffing games against Bowling Green, Oklahoma (both bottom-20 pass defenses in the country), Rutgers and Nebraska make his season appear similar to his 2014 campaign, the secret is out: Barrett is not a great quarterback.
His play against Michigan State was arguably worse than the box score indicates. He was 10 for 22 for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Spartans. His longest throw was a 24-yard touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel, who did all the work separating from the safety with no over-the-top protection.
While wind was a factor, Barrett’s throws were consistently misplaced. Outside of that touchdown, he didn’t have a pass that gained more than 14 yards, and it’s clear Ohio State abandoned its passing attack when it mattered, just as it has done numerous times before.
Defense and a dynamic, two-headed rushing attack saved the Buckeyes from a crippling loss to the Spartans, but it won’t be enough against Michigan. The Wolverines have the country’s second best run defense based on their defensive front seven talent (trailing only Alabama in likely NFL players in that area). The Wolverines allow just 3.0 yards per carry (fourth best in the country) and have given up just four rushing touchdowns all year (second best in the country).
Barrett came into the year with optimism that, with the job fully his, he could develop as a passer, be more than just a dual-threat quarterback and guide Ohio State to the playoff with NFL flashes. Ohio State might get to the playoff even if it loses to Michigan, though a blowout loss might sway the committee away.
MORE: Playoff questions heading into the weekend
But that’s exactly what to expect. Ohio State won’t have enough to beat Michigan, even in the Horseshoe. Barrett hasn’t proven he can step up to the challenge and win with his arm. His struggles against Penn State epitomized his weaknesses as a passer, but he has had more than a few questionable games.
It’s going to take more than a loud crowd or a dynamic rushing attack to beat Michigan. It’s going to take Barrett playing his best game of the year.
Don’t bet on it.
Colorado, led by Sefo Liufau, is for real
A former college football powerhouse (in the early ‘90s), Colorado hasn’t been nationally relevant for a while. But this year, coach Mike MacIntyre has put together one of the best coaching jobs in the country and has Colorado no only in the top 10, but also with a chance to play in the Pac-12 title game and, potentially, the College Football Playoff.
The team has found ways to win ugly, like its 10-5 victory at Stanford, and with tremendous offense, like its most recent, 14-point win over Washington State. The defense has surpassed expectations with pass rusher Jimmy Gilbert and future NFL cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, but it’s the play of the senior quarterback, Liufau, that has gotten Colorado where it is.
Liufau has been Colorado’s starter since MacIntyre arrived, and the two have built the Buffalos’ program back to one of the college football powers west of the Mississippi. Liufau has improved over his career, especially as a decision maker. He has thrown just three interceptions this year, opting to pull it down and run more than in the past and highlighting his athletic upside.
Liufau still has a slight hitch in his quick release mechanics, but otherwise, his controlled release has allowed him stellar velocity control. He has displayed perimeter and downfield placement skills throughout the season, including against Washington State and against the best team he faced all season, the Michigan Wolverines.
While he’s late to react and doesn’t possess high-level anticipation, his experience and willingness to take a hit has given him and his coaches remarkable confidence in his ability to finish throws and win games late.
Against Washington State, Liufau consistently played with control in the pocket and utilized great protection to outperform fellow top quarterback prospect Luke Falk.
Liufau hasn’t yet been invited to the Senior Bowl, but despite his mediocre production, he deserves to be there. After Davis Webb of California, he’s the best senior passer in the country. And if he can beat Utah this weekend and give Washington’s NFL-loaded secondary all it can handle in the Pac-12 title game, he will have proved he and Colorado deserve national recognition.
MORE: Washington rivals Bama in NFL talent
Player spotlight: Keionta Davis, DE, Chattanooga
If not for a 47-yard Calvin Ridley touchdown or a fumbled punt return by Chattanooga inside its own 10-yard line, Chattanooga might have been the first team to hold a halftime lead over Alabama this season. Chattanooga’s offense never had a chance against an NFL-level defense, but led by their own future NFL defender in Davis, the underdogs were able to generate pressure on QB Jalen Hurts and make Alabama earn its perceived easy victory.
Davis and the Chattanooga Mocs sacked Jalen Hurts three times in the first-half. Davis only was responsible for one of those sacks, but it was his disruption off the snap and the surprising need for Alabama to help Cam Robinson that led to the early-game success.
Davis was matched up on Robinson, the Alabama left tackle who might be a first-round pick, and, especially in the first half, made Robinson look like the mediocre tackle prospect he is. Davis took advantage with his outside bend, quickness to the perimeter, ability to stay laterally quick and explosiveness to transition laterally with ease. Davis’ quick hands, explosive burst and finishing ability has made him a force at the FCS level, and he made it clear against Alabama that he can transition his college production to the NFL.
Davis is among the best small-school players for the 2017 NFL Draft and now has put himself in the discussion of the best pass rushers the class has to offer. Not many players in the country have faced Alabama and actually helped their “draft stock" this year, but Davis has given himself a “signature win” for his scouting report.
Top 10: 2017 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
We’ve done this top 10 quarterback exercise in the past, but if anything has become clearer since then, it’s that NFL teams are very unclear about who they prefer.
Some still feel confident in Deshone Kizer, while some are frustrated with his role in Notre Dame’s struggles this year. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has looked Brett Hundley-esque. North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky has his fair share of supporters, but he’s not a lock to declare just yet, and he’s a ways away in too many areas for an NFL team to hitch its wagon to him.
The two most interesting names are Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, who struggled mightily last week, and Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, who has rebounded from a sluggish start to the year.
I know of one NFL team that feels Rudolph is in the top-quarterback discussion, while Mahomes has plenty of support from NFL scouts that have tracked his career and appreciate his top-end velocity.
MORE: How Deshaun Watson has hurt draft stock
* - indicates underclassmen
1. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame*
2. Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech*
3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson*
4. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State*
5. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina*
6. Brad Kaaya, Miami (Fla.)*
7. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech*
8. Luke Falk, Washington State*
9. Davis Webb, California
10. Sefo Liufau, Colorado