The Panthers relinquished their rights to Josh Norman after failing to reach terms on a long-term contract while he had their franchise tag. The decision indicates a fundamental disagreement between the two on the cornerback's value.
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Norman now can shop his services to the highest bidder. Will he find that the rest of the NFL views him as the $14 million player he thinks he is, or will he find it hard to get the elite-level money as a free agent?
Norman hit the perfect contractual storm, so to speak, in 2015. He peaked on a Super Bowl-bound team and was praised as one of the team's more important defensive players. The same scenario saw Byron Maxwell, who could be considered inferior to Norman, earn a $10.5 million-per-year contract from the Eagles in 2014. It's logical for Norman to assume he should be the highest-paid player at the position.
But Norman is difficult to value; his first two seasons in the NFL were below average, and he struggled as a rookie before he eventually was benched. He saw action in only seven games the following season and still wasn’t considered a factor in 2014. But he worked hard to regain a starting job, and the 2015 season was Norman's best. He gained fame as the “shutdown” corner of the Panther defense.
The struggle with valuing players like Norman — players with odd career arcs — is determining their future. Will he resemble that player from the first two years of his career, or will he remain closer to the All-Pro level? If Norman was a first-round pick and considered an exceptional talent, it'd be a simple answer. But he was not that kind of talent, and he has not had a consistent, Richard Sherman-like career.
IYER: Panthers' split with Norman a wise, timely divorce
Teams pay big for corners who are considered capable of locking down opponents in man coverage. Norman hasn’t really had that opportunity, and teams may be turned off by that unknown. But even true shutdown corners sometimes struggle if they hit free agency.
The biggest ding against Norman is his age. He will be 29 by the end of the season at a position where athleticism is key to success. For every older corner who performs well — Champ Bailey, for example — there's a Nnamdi Asomugha, who saw a sharp decline in production when he signed with the Eagles at 30.
Darrelle Revis at 29 had a difficult time finding the deal he wanted and eventually settled on a one-year contract with the Patriots worth $12 million. At 30, he was lucky to find the perfect firestorm (the Jets) last year in order to get the biggest contract at the position despite his age. But it was not lost on general managers that Revis was no longer anywhere near the best corner in the NFL.
Here are the current top contracts among cornerbacks in the league who were signed at age 28 or older.
Only Revis and Jenkins are true top earners, and both were signed in first wave of free agency, a luxury Norman doesn't have. The closest comparison to Norman is Smith, who was regarded as the best available corner but ended up signing for $3 million less per year than Jenkins.
Market trends also come into play with certain positions. Value fluctuates depending on the year, and this year, corner was not a highly-valued position. Prince Amukamara and Casey Hayward received disappointing contracts. Leon Hall has been unable to find a team.
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The average salaries for older cornerbacks are significantly lower than the top 10 in the under-28 group, which averages nearly $11 million per season with $27 million in total guarantees. That means Norman probably will come in at a 15-20 percent discount from whatever he would have expected at age 26.
It only takes one team to break the norm set by the league, but Norman likely will have to work hard to convince someone he's worth a $13 million-$14 million contract that would put him in the elite earner category.